Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

416 S. Barin the wake of the al-Hariri affair. It is claimed that the Saudis received information abouta possible threat to al-Hariri’s life, and sent a special emissary who warned Bashar not toharm al-Hariri. The Saudis therefore have no doubts regarding Syrian responsibility for theassassination.This is not to say that Saudi Arabia will take active steps to topple the regime inDamascus or replace Bashar. Saudi policy is first and foremost one of stability and continuity.It will, however, not go out of its way to save Bashar if the threat to his regime comes frominside Syria.JordanJordan’s relations with Syria were strained for most of the last decade of Hafez al-Asad’s rule.The animosity between the two countries goes back to the Syrian invasion of Jordan duringthe “Black September” events of 1971, attempts by Syria to assassinate senior Jordanianpoliticians (including former Prime Minister Mudar Badran), and other Syrian subversionin Jordan. The Syrians, for their part, accused Jordan of actively aiding and abetting theSyrian Muslim Brotherhood during the uprising of the early 1980s and, of course, betrayingthe Arab and Palestinian cause by signing a peace treaty with Israel.One of Bashar’s first overtures as president towards his neighbors was to “depoliticize”the relations with Amman. Soon after he had inaugurated diplomatic relations between thetwo countries (23 December 2000), and economic relations received a boost.The conventional wisdom in the early days of Bashar’s rule tied him together with KingAbdallah II of Jordan and King Mohammad VI of Morocco as the “internet generation” ofArab rulers. However, strong relations between Bashar and Abdallah did not develop. Thelatter had taken a firm position alongside the U.S. War on Terrorism (including reducingthe activities of Palestinian Hamas, which is supported by Damascus), was increasinglyuncomfortable with Syrian heavy-handedness in Lebanon and its support of the Iraqi insurgency,and refused to downgrade its relationship with Israel. Nevertheless, Jordan is acutelyaware of possible fallout resulting from instability in its northern neighbor and would preferthe status quo over any upheaval in Damascus.EgyptRelations between Syria and Egypt have historically reflected the fluctuations in Syria’sregional status. After the Israeli–Egyptian peace treaty of 1979 Syria gained preeminenceas the leading Arab state in the anti–Camp David bloc and led the campaign for suspensionof Egypt’s membership in the Arab League and its affiliate associations. Later, after the 1982war in Lebanon, Syria began to improve relations with Cairo. Over the years relations weremarked by continual consultations between the aging Hafez al-Asad and Husni Mubarak.This relationship—like many in the Arab world—was primarily a personal one, andchanged with the death of Hafez al-Asad. There are clear signs that Mubarak has beenexasperated by the Syrian President’s hard-line rhetoric and has given many indicationsthat he views him as a “childish” individual. 142 This is in line with Mubarak’s status (alongwith Muammar Qaddafi) as a virtual “elder statesman” of the Arab world since the deathsof Kings Hasan of Morocco and Hussein of Jordan, President Hafez al-Asad, and YasserArafat. 143 It is, however, Syria’s declining international status that provides Egypt with anopportunity to play a more pivotal role both in restraining Bashar and staving off moreintense American pressure.