Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

408 S. BarBashar is well aware that willingness to re-engage in the peace process with Israel ispotentially his most favorable card. According to senior Israeli and American officials whowere involved in previous Israeli–Syrian negotiations, Bashar is indeed willing to work“from the point at which they stopped, according to the Madrid Conference framework andaccording to the Security Council resolutions.” 128 The debate remains over his ability tocompromise on the main bones of contention: the international versus the 1967 borders 129and the extent of “normal” relations between the two countries. 130 All the present signsindicate that Bashar is not willing or able to be flexible on the former issue, on which he istotally committed to the legacy of his father. Asad held a “deposit” that he extracted fromIsraeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin regarding total Israeli withdrawal from the Golan inreturn for comprehensive peace. This position was also the basis for the Syrian negotiationswith Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and later with his successor, Ehud Barak. 131 Itappears that this is Bashar’s true position and not, as is frequently claimed, because the oldguard will not countenance any concessions in this regard. As pointed out above, this oldguard has faded away since Bashar came to power.Lebanon. Lebanon is arguably the most important single strategic issue on the Syrianagenda. Syria’s basic interests in Lebanon include: Ideological factors. Syrian Ba’th doctrine views Lebanon as a part of Syria that wasartificially torn away from it by Western colonialism. Consequently, Syria neverrecognized Lebanon as a legitimate sovereign state and never held an embassy inBeirut. Military interests. These include: (1) preventing Lebanon from being used as a platformfor (Israeli) military intervention in Syria (by avoiding the Golan Heights andinvading Syria via the Baqa’a valley); (2) preventing Lebanon from concluding aseparate peace treaty with Israel, which would leave Syria alone without any reallevers to induce Israel to enter negotiations with it; (3) using Lebanon as a havenfor terrorist organizations that Syria would have found inconvenient to host in herown territory (Japanese Red Army, PKK, and ANO in the past; the Islamic Jihadapparatus of Hezbollah (Imad Moghniyya) and Islamist elements linked to al Qaedatoday); (4) using Hezbollah to threaten and annoy Israel.• Economic interests. Both Syria as a state and various branches of the nomenklaturaprofited from the Syrian control over Lebanon. One estimate is that Syria siphonedoff at least ten billion dollars (US) a year from Lebanon, 132 equivalent to 47 percentof Syria’s gross domestic product. Even more significant is the lucrative drug trade,in which the Syrian army was deeply involved; the Bekaa valley is reputed to be thesource of more than half of all marijuana and hashish seized in Western Europe,and the heroin trade reportedly is worth around US$1.4 billion per annum. Itis estimated that much of this was funneled to “bosses” in the Syrian forces inLebanon. Even assuming that this sum is grossly exaggerated, there is no doubtthat Lebanon has enormous economic importance for Syria. Lebanon is also asource of employment for over a million Syrian manual laborers who send theirremittances home to Syria. The loss of this option would have devastating effectson Syrian employment levels.• Regional interests The Arab world’s acceptance of Syria’s special status inLebanon (the Taif Accord) was one of Syria’s greatest strategic achievements.• Domestic considerations. The Lebanese political arena has served in many waysas a proxy theater for Syrian policy. This was self-evident in the case of Syria’s