Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

396 S. Bar Other prominent Syrians who were involved in the Lebanese economy include GeneralMohammad Issa Duba (the brother of ‘Ali Duba, former head of Military Intelligence),Mohammad Hamsho (Syrian member of parliament, head of HamshoInternational, Iham Sa’id (the son of former GID director, Majid Sa’id), and MohammadNasef.The SunnisIn its early days the Ba’th regime formed a coalition with the rural Sunni elites, deposing theurban Sunni elites from their traditional predominance in Syrian society. This however haschanged. First, many of the “rural elites” have become part of a new urban elite; second, theregime gradually widened its base among the Sunnis and coopted many of the rich Sunnifamilies.The Sunni business elite of Damascus was upset at the assassination of al-Hariri, withwhom many had business connections and who was regarded as a symbol of economicsuccess. Some even claim that he was seen as a possible example of how the Sunni businesssector could regain power, even when military power was concentrated in the hands ofothers. The tension between Syria and Lebanon was not only bad for the business concernsof Alawite generals but also for Sunni businessmen. There are a few signs that the murderhas caused some rumblings in this community against the Alawite elite, but for the timebeing there are no signs of organized opposition by this group, which values, above all,stability.The Sunni tribes of Eastern Syria (mainly along the border with Iraq and with transborderaffiliations with the corresponding Iraqi tribes) had been sidelined during the decadesof the Hafez al-Asad regime. Bashar, however, is reputed to have made an attempt to cultivatetheir loyalty. This policy began even before the U.S. occupation of Iraq, but has acceleratedsince then. The prospects of a breakup of Iraq into Shi’ite, Kurdish, and Sunni areas wouldleave the Iraqi tribes with a stronger dependence on the Syrian tribes. The Syrian tribesparticipated in the monthly meetings of the Iraqi tribes and Ba’thists in Damascus fromOctober 2003 on, and in December 2004 Bashar himself honored the meeting with hispresence. 110Druze, Isma’ilis, Christians, and KurdsSyria’s religious minorities—Druze, Isma’ilis, and Christians—enjoy a special status underthe Ba’th-Alawite regime. They are, in effect, members of the “coalition” of social elementsthat Hafez al-Asad built over the years. The former two are well-integrated into the militaryand bureaucracy, whereas the latter play a pivotal role in the economy. All three communitieshave something to lose by the fall of the regime, particularly if the alternative is a Sunni—possibly Islamist—regime that would not safeguard their status and would impose SunniIslam on the heterodox Islamic sects or relegate them to second class citizenship.The Druze and the Isma’ilis are, like the Alawites, a heterodox Shi’ite sect which hasbeen coopted into the regime. The Druze of Syria mainly hail from the Golan and theLebanese border and have no history of clashes with the Alawites, most whom inhabit thefar north of the country. On the other hand, the Isma’ilis are traditional rivals of their Alawiteneighbors in the northwestern part of the country. This rivalry was manifested in bloodyclashes between Isma’ilis and Alawites in the towns of Qadmous and Misyaf in mid-2005,which resulted in attacks on Alawite houses and stores.