Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

384 S. Bar2. The “second generation” within the military and security apparatuses. Prominent amongthese are Alawite officers who came under Bashar’s command in the Republican Guard,along with various senior officers in the military who were promoted by Bashar. 683. The young generation of the civilian branch of the Ba’th party. These are party memberswho owe the rapid advance in their position to their association with Bashar. Many ofthem were educated in the West and support measured change in the party in order toguarantee the survival of the regime. 694. Western-educated academics who became associated with Bashar before he becamepresident. Most of these came into Bashar’s orbit during the last decade after he became“heir apparent.” These individuals can be classified, largely, as Western—mainly Americanand British-educated academicians with postgraduate degrees and an academic trackrecord in institutions abroad, most of them in the areas of economy and social sciences.In addition, a number of Bashar’s associates from the Syrian Computer Society are alsocounted among his circle of friends. 70 The average age of these individuals is slightlyolder than Bashar, in the mid-40s and −50s. Not all of these are active members ofthe Ba’th party, though they are all part of the Ba’th establishment and certainly are notopposed to the party. In his prepresidency days, Bashar al-Asad was accustomed to meetwith this crowd in the fashionable “Gemini” restaurant in the new city of Damascus.The most prominent representatives of the “young guard” surrounding Bashar al-Asadcan be seen in the Figure 2.The main differences between the two “guards” can be summarized as follows:Old GuardFirst generation fought for powerPersonal loyalty to Hafez al-AsadUsed to an autocratic micromanagerCentralist decision makingClear definition of authorityLittle familiarity with Western cultureSocialist-Arab NationalistsSupport state controlled economyMilitary technocrats, experienced warand defeatYoung GuardSecond generation, born into privilegeLess personal loyalty, vested interestsUsed to consultation and consensusDe-centralization of decision makingAmbiguity of authorityEducated in U.S. and U.K.Ideological pragmatistsSupport wider private economyAcademic technocrats; no experienceswith warThe “Young Guard” in the Ba’th. The middle ranks of the Ba’th party have also undergonea massive “face lift” since Bashar al-Asad came to power. This process is evident from thecomposition of the institutions on the national level (when not noted otherwise, the use ofthe word “national” refers to Syria and not to the Ba’thist use of “national” to signify thePan-Arab institutions of the party: the Regional Command, the Central Committee, and theRegional Congress. Many of these are “second generation” Ba’thists who grew up with theprivileges of belonging to families with close links to the centers of power.This process that is identified with Bashar al-Asad began even before his formal electionas President. The 9th Congress was engineered as the first step in the marginalization ofthe old guard, which had kept its grip on the party apparatus for thirty years. This wasimplemented by allowing certain “democratic” procedures at the root level of the party.Following the Congress, the leaders of the party branches were gradually replaced (July