Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

Bashar’s Syria 377To what extent can the negotiation style of Hafez al-Asad be attributed to cultural ornational values and therefore be expected in Bashar’s regime or in future Syrian regimes?It appears that what has come to be known as “Syrian negotiation techniques” (mainlyin negotiations between Syria and Israel via the American conduit) were quintessentiallythose of Hafez al-Asad. Unlike cases such as Iran, Japan, China, and the U.S., where certainnegotiation styles can be attributed to cultural characteristics and values, this does not seemtenable in the Syrian case. Hafez al-Asad brought to his negotiation style the personalbackground of a military officer from a minority community with a culture of defensivesecrecy. He had fought his way up, had betrayed, and had been betrayed and had honed hisstyle over decades. Bashar has none of these factors in his background.Bashar has been involved in too few negotiations with the outside world since he cameto power to construct a reliable picture of his negotiation style or even indicate that he wouldhave a personal involvement of the sort his father had in Syrian negotiations with foreignparties. This is not necessarily because the opportunity has not arisen, but rather becauseBashar is hesitant to place himself in a position that would force him to take strategicdecisions. This is particularly a problem since the long rule of Hafez al-Asad left his sonwith no other model for negotiation.In those few cases in which Bashar has been involved in negotiation, a number of traitshave come to light: Bashar is said to be well briefed before meetings with foreign representatives. However,he seems to have less of a capacity than his father to make use of these details.A case in point is the confrontation with the U.S. over the pumping of Iraqi oil inthe Syrian pipeline. Bashar does not negotiate or take decisions alone, he depends on his team and defersto them. He has a distinct need to merge with the consensus of his advisors. Butunlike his father, his counselors change both according to the issue discussed andfrequently by chance. The dynamics between these advisors therefore is a constantstruggle for the ear of the president. The absence of coherent schools of policy amongthe advisors and the predominance of personal considerations among the advisorsmay contribute to what seems to be an erratic decision-making process under Bashar.His lack of self-confidence almost precludes his overruling of impasses created byhis lieutenants. Bashar tends to make liberal use of his apparent weak position. In messages throughback channels and even in direct meetings he points out that he is not in total control(in his words: “not a dictator”) and is constrained by the mentality of the “old guard”and the “structure” of the regime. Such a resort to apologetics would never have beenused by his predecessor and is rather reminiscent of the explanations/excuses thatYasser Arafat was accustomed to make to justify his lack of complete control.A possible window into the negotiation style of the Bashar al-Asad regime is the EU–Syria negotiations over an association agreement in the context of the Barcelona processwith the EU. Syria participated in the Barcelona Conference in 1995 and in the BarcelonaDeclaration. The Framework Convention necessary for starting the implementation ofcooperation under the MEDA programme was only signed in 2000. Negotiations for an AssociationAgreement, the second main pillar of the EU–Mediterranean partnership, startedin 1998, but little progress was made in the first four years. At the end of 2001, progresswas made. Since then, progress in the negotiations and in related economic and legal reformshas been made by the government under Prime Minister Al-Otari, which took overin September 2003. In December 2003 an understanding was reached on all issues except