Bashar's Syria: The Regime and its Strategic Worldview Shmuel Bar ...

374 S. Barcultural, political and moral collapse of the Arab individual and his ultimatedefeat even without a fight. 50The general impression from the above analysis and from various statements by Basharal-Asad—both public and private—is that he is not a “closet reformer” held hostage inthe hands of an “old guard,” but views political liberalization (as opposed to economic“opening”) as foreign, if not an existential threat to the regime. The reasons for this analysisinclude the following: First of all, the oft-invoked argument that Bashar is captive in the hands of an “oldguard” loses its credibility as time goes on and Bashar has strengthened his grip.During the last five years, the “old guard” that had served Hafez al-Asad has been allbut eliminated from key positions of authority and its ability to influence of pressurethe president has been greatly reduced. There is no doubt, even among those who see Bashar as a reformer, that, like hisfather, Bashar’s strategic goal is the survival of the regime. There are no signs that hesees himself as the “receiver” of the regime in the historic process of its dismantling orthat he desires to play the role of a Syrian Juan Carlos or Gorbachev. Bashar’s conceptof liberalization is borrowed from the Chinese reforms or the Egyptian infitah underSadat in the 1970s and not from the Soviet Glasnost under Gorbachev. Hence, hisdrive for liberalization remains qualified by his acceptance of the overriding priorityof regime survival. Bashar also remains true—at least on the rhetoric level—to the ideal of Arab nationalism.It seems that this is not merely a vestige of an obsolete strategic worldviewor a demonstration of filial fidelity to the father’s vision, but is a means for creatinga semblance of domestic cohesiveness and common identity in a society divided bylocal interests and communal identities.Decision Making under BasharThe model of hypercentralist decision making that characterized the regime of Hafez al-Asad faded with Bashar’s rise to power for various reasons: The “gang” surrounding the president did not have the same status with Bashar aswith his father. Bashar naturally felt the need for alternative channels of informationand advisors who were more attuned to his world view. The “fading away” of the “old guard” in Bashar’s regime and the integration ofyounger technocrats has changed some of the bureaucratic psychology in the partyand opened the door for more internal debate. Bashar’s ability to rely on the military and the mokhabarat is considerably less thanhis father’s and his tendency to accord the party a more central role as a power basehas altered the relationship between the party and the president. More than in thepast, the party has become a natural platform to influence the leader. On the other hand—and to a certain extent in contradiction to the enhanced status ofthe party—Bashar’s tendency to surround himself with nonparty member technocratsand Western-educated academicians has weakened the exclusivity of the party. Bashar clearly has neither the ability nor the proclivity of his father for multitasking,and micromanaging, and obviously prefers the delegation of authority. In many areas,Bashar is reported to preside over “consultations” with experts on various matters andis said to be willing to listen to opinions and advice on various issues, and not only