FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT
FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT
FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT
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de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 2009KEY TECHNOLOGYMONTE CARLO SIMULATION PROCESSESDISTRIBUTIONS OF UNCERTA<strong>IN</strong> <strong>IN</strong>PUTS AND PRODUCESDISTRIBUTIONS OF UNCERTA<strong>IN</strong> PERFORMANCEFrequency40%30%20%10%0%‐35‐30‐26‐21‐17‐12‐7 ‐3 2 6Net Present Value1Uncertain Environment Uncertain System PerformanceFigure 3.7 -- to be set as Box, no extra captionPrbability of Missing the Target100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%‐35 ‐30 ‐25 ‐20 ‐15 ‐10 ‐5 0 5 10Target NPV (millions)Figure 3.8: Target or cumulative percentile curve, indicatingthe probability of missing any target on the horizontal axisPart 1: Chapters 1 to 3 <strong>Page</strong> 65 of 69
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