FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT
FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT
de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 200935%30%Frequency25%20%15%10%5%0%‐35 ‐30 ‐26 ‐21 ‐17 ‐12 ‐7 ‐3 2 6Net Present Value (millions)11Figure 3.5: Histogram showing the distribution of possible values of the parking garage,considering the possible uncertainty in demandNote – the numbers on the horizontal axis should delimit the ends of the ranges.We need to fix this.Symmetrical Input DistributionSkewed Distribution of System PerformanceFigure 3.6: -- to be set in Box 3.2, no extra captionPart 1: Chapters 1 to 3 Page 64 of 69
de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 2009KEY TECHNOLOGYMONTE CARLO SIMULATION PROCESSESDISTRIBUTIONS OF UNCERTAIN INPUTS AND PRODUCESDISTRIBUTIONS OF UNCERTAIN PERFORMANCEFrequency40%30%20%10%0%‐35‐30‐26‐21‐17‐12‐7 ‐3 2 6Net Present Value1Uncertain Environment Uncertain System PerformanceFigure 3.7 -- to be set as Box, no extra captionPrbability of Missing the Target100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%‐35 ‐30 ‐25 ‐20 ‐15 ‐10 ‐5 0 5 10Target NPV (millions)Figure 3.8: Target or cumulative percentile curve, indicatingthe probability of missing any target on the horizontal axisPart 1: Chapters 1 to 3 Page 65 of 69
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de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 200935%30%Frequency25%20%15%10%5%0%‐35 ‐30 ‐26 ‐21 ‐17 ‐12 ‐7 ‐3 2 6Net Present Value (millions)11Figure 3.5: Histogram showing the distribution of possible values of the parking garage,considering the possible uncertainty in demandNote – the numbers on the horizontal axis should delimit the ends of the ranges.We need to fix this.Symmetrical Input DistributionSkewed Distribution of System PerformanceFigure 3.6: -- to be set in Box 3.2, no extra captionPart 1: Chapters 1 to 3 <strong>Page</strong> 64 of 69
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