FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT

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de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 2009Table 3.4: Comparison of actual expected net present value in millions of project (ENPV)and value estimated using single projected demandDesignLevelsExpectedNPVNPVBased on demandProjectedUncertain4 - 1.2 - 2.55 2.2 0.36 2.5 - 0.17 - 0.7 - 3.8Table 3.5: Evaluation of phased demand, values in millionsDesignLevelsExpectedNPVNPVBased on demandBreak-evenprobabilityProjected Uncertain percent4 - 1.2 - 2.5 05 2.2 0.3 646 2.5 - 0.1 597 - 0.7 - 3.8 48Phased 5.4 - 0.4 66Part 1: Chapters 1 to 3 <strong>Page</strong> 60 of 69
de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 2009Table 3.6: Comparison of flexible design with alternatives, values in millionsDesignLevelsInitialcapitaloutlayNPVExpectedNPVBreak-evenprobabilityBased on demandProjected Uncertain percent10% valueattoRisk Gain5 19.2 2.2 0.3 64 -7.6 5.46 24.2 2.5 - 0.1 59 -14.3 9.64, flexibleexpansion16.7 n/a 2.1 66 - 7.4 9.2Which best? Flexible n/a Flexible Flexible Flexible FlexibleTable 3.7: Summary of results for parking garage example, values in millionsDesignLevelsInitialcapitaloutlayNPVExpectedNPVBreak-evenprobabilityBased on demandProjected Uncertain Percent10% valueat toRisk Gain4 14.7 - 1.2 - 2.5 0 - 6.3 - 0.75 19.2 2.2 0.3 65 - 7.6 5.46 24.2 2.5 - 0.1 60 - 14.3 9.67 29.6 - 0.7 - 3.8 45 - 23.5 10.7Phased, planned 16.7 5.4 - 0.4 65 - 16.2 6.63, flexible 12.6 n/a 0.8 60 - 5.9 5.24, flexible 16.7 n/a 2.1 65 - 7.4 9.25, flexible 21.2 n/a 1.6 60 - 10.8 11.5Part 1: Chapters 1 to 3 <strong>Page</strong> 61 of 69
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