FLEXIBILITY IN DESIGN - Title Page - MIT

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de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 2009Box 2.7_____________________________________________________________________________Ambiguous analysis of causes of trendsA regular classroom exercise at MIT involves working with extensive historical data on traffic inLos Angeles. The purpose is to explore how the experts on the actual job arrived at theirforecasts from this data. One phase of the exercise considers the expert analysis that selectedthe relative importance of population and income as drivers of traffic growth, based on whichcombinations matched the historical data most closely.The class exercise invites the students to match the Los Angeles data with any othersingle factor. In recent years the factors that most closely matched the data, and in each case didso much better than the model used by the consultants for Los Angeles, were the:• Divorces in France,• Egg production in New Zealand, and• Prison population of the State of Oregon!Of course, this is all nonsense. That is the point of the exercise. By themselves, good statisticalmatches of annual data means very little, if anything, and it is unrealistic to use these proceduresto develop and select useful forecasts._____________________________________________________________________________Part 1: Chapters 1 to 3 Page 38 of 69
de Neufville + Scholtes D R A F T September 30, 2009Table 2.1 Forecast emplanements at United States airports.Note assumed ability to forecast to a single passenger 20 years ahead.Size of airport Actual, 2006 Forecast, 2025Large Hubs 507,958,226 892,531,074Medium Hubs 146,257,477 250,288,322Source: US Federal Aviation Administration (200X)Table 2.2 Actual and forecast emplaned passengers and flight operations at Boston/LoganairportCategory Actual, 1999 Forecast, 2004 Actual, 2004 Percent UnderPassengers 13,532,000 14,500,000 13,074,190 10OperationsTotal 494,816 529,129 409,066 23Big Jets 255,953 265,058 236,758 11Regional 189,680 222,949 128,972 42Cargo 11,267 13,180 12,100 7General Avn. 37,916 27,942 31,236 12Source: Massport and US Federal Aviation Administration (200x)Part 1: Chapters 1 to 3 Page 39 of 69
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