Central Asia-Caucasus - The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

Central Asia-CaucasusAnalystBI-WEEKLY BRIEFING VOL. 10 NO. 21 29 OCTOBER 2008Searchable Archives with over 1,500 articles at http://www.cacianalyst.orgANALYTICAL ARTICLES:IS RUSSIA WINNING IN CENTRAL ASIA?Martin C. Spechler and Dina R. SpechlerRUSSIA AND INDIA FACE KAZAKHSTAN’SSPACE AMBITIONSSébastien PeyrouseGEORGIAN WAR INCREASES NUCLEARTERRORISM RISKSRichard WeitzGLOBAL CRISIS HITS LOCAL COMMUNIT-ITES IN CENTRAL ASIARafis AbazovFIELD REPORTS:ELECTIONS IN AZERBAIJAN CONSTITUTESTEP FORWARD, BUT INTERNATIONAL REAC-TIONS REMAIN AMBIGUOUSAlman Mir IsmailMEDVEDEV MAKES ANOTHER BID TO REACHBREAKTHROUGH IN NAGORNO KARABAKHHaroutiun KhachatrianUZBEKISTAN OPTS FOR FOOD CROPS PRO-DUCTIONErkin AkhmadovKYRGYZSTAN: CAN NEW TAX CODE BOOSTBUSINESS?Nurshat AbabakirovNEWS DIGEST

THE CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS ANALYSTEditor: Svante E. CornellAssistant Editor: Niklas NilssonAssistant Editor, News Digest: Alima BissenovaChairman, Editorial Board: S. Frederick StarrThe Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is an English-language journal devoted to analysis of the current issues facing Central Asia and theCaucasus. It serves to link the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center. The Editor of the Analyst solicits most articles and field reports, howeverauthors are encouraged to suggest topics for future issues or submit articles and field reports for consideration. Such articles and fieldreports cannot have been previously published in any form, must be written in English, and must correspond precisely to the format andstyle of articles and field reports published in The Analyst, described below.The Analyst aims to provide our industrious and engaged audience with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in theregion written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Analyst articles reflect the fact that we have a diverse internationalaudience. While this should not affect what authors write about or their conclusions, this does affect the tone of articles. Analyst articlesfocus on a newsworthy topic, engage central issues of the latest breaking news from the region and are backed by solid evidence. Articlesshould normally be based on local language news sources. Each 1,100-1,500 word analytical article must provide relevant, precise andauthoritative background information. It also must offer a sober and analytical judgment of the issue as well as a clinical evaluation of theimportance of the event. Authors must cite facts of controversial nature to the Editor who may contact other experts to confirm claims.Since Analyst articles are based on solid evidence, rather than rumors or conjecture, they prove to be reliable sources of information on theregion. By offering balanced and objective analysis while keeping clear of inflammatory rhetoric, The Analyst does more to inform ourinternational readership on all sides of the issues.The Editor reserves the right to edit the article to conform to the editorial policy and specifications of The Analyst and to reject the articleshould it not be acceptable to our editorial committee for publication. On acceptance and publication of the edited version of the article, TheCentral Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The Nitze School of Advanced International Studies will issue anhonorarium to the author. It is up to the individual author to provide the correct paperwork to the Institute that makes the issuing of anhonorarium possible. The copyright for the article or field report will reside with the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst. However, the authormay use all or part of the contracted article in any book or article in any media subsequently written by the author, provided that acopyright notice appears giving reference to the contracted article’s first publication by the "Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University, Nitze School of Advanced International Studies."Submission Guidelines:ines:Analytical Articlesrequire a three to four sentence Key Issue introduction to the article based on a news hook. Rather than a general,overarching analysis, the article must offer considered and careful judgment supported with concrete examples. The ideal length ofanalytical articles is between 1,100 and 1,500 words. The articles are structured as follows:KEY ISSUE: A short 75-word statement of your conclusions about the issue or news event on which the article focuses.BACKGROUND: 300-450 words of analysis about what has led up to the event or issue and why this issue is critical to the region. Includebackground information about the views and experiences of the local population.IMPLICATIONS: 300-450 words of analysis of the ramifications of this event or issue, including where applicable, implications for thelocal people’s future.CONCLUSIONS: 100-200 words that strongly state your conclusions about the impact of the event or issue.Field Reports focus on a particular news event and what local people think about the event. Field Reports address the implications the eventor activity analyzed for peoples’ lives and their communities. Field Reports do not have the rigid structure of Analytical Articles, and areshorter in length, averaging ca. 700-800 words.Those interested in joining The Analyst’s pool of authors to contribute articles, field reports, or contacts of potential writers, please sendyour CV to: and suggest some topics on which you would like to write.Svante E. CornellResearch Director; Editor, Central Asia-Caucasus AnalystCentral Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies ProgramPaul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA.Tel. +1-202-663-5922; 1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 3IS RUSSIA WINNING IN CENTRAL ASIA?Martin C. Spechler and Dina R. SpechlerIn keeping with an increasingly assertive stance in Russian foreign policy, especially since2004, President Putin declared that the Central Asian part of the “near abroad” is a “keynational interest.” In light of the independence the five ex-Soviet Central Asian statesdisplayed in their less than supportive reactions to the invasion of Georgia, one might askwhether Russia is succeeding in this former colonial area—as many Western analysts haveasserted. Despite Russia’s many ways of exerting influence among these disparate states,Moscow has not done well, even on its own appraisal.BACKGROUND: To evaluate Russian success,one must consider the Putin-Medvedevadministration’s objectives in the region. Theseinclude exclusion of the U.S., NATO, and otherpotential rivals. In this Russia has had littlesuccess. Though the Americans were expelledfrom the airbase at Karshi-Khanabad in 2005,NATO airmen remain in Uzbekistan. Americanbusiness, never expelled, has reasserted itspresence there with a General Motors contract.President Karimov’s much acclaimed strategicaccord with Russia in 2006 was in fact just aframework agreement. It envisaged cooperation incase of instability but required prior Uzbekapproval for any entry of troops.The Kyrgyz Republic turned down the ShanghaiCooperation Organization recommendation in2005 to close down the US-NATO airbase atManas, near Bishkek, and apparently has done soagain at the recent summit meeting of thatorganization at Dushanbe. The NATO base hasmore than twice the number of personnel as theRussian one at nearby Kant, althoughreinforcements for the latter have been promised.It is true that Kazakhstan and some of the otherCentral Asian countries receive deeply discountedequipment from Russia, and that Moscowmaintains military forces in the two smallest andweakest states of the region, but all the CentralAsian countries participate in NATO’sPartnership for Peace and receive both arms andtraining from the West, not to mention China.Another declared Russian objective has beenprotection from Islamist attacks and entry ofdrugs into the Russian Federation territory.Islamists from Chechnya are active in and aroundthe Caucasus, and the flow of narcotics to Russia’smillions of addicts continues. This is oneconsequence of Russian military involvement inTajikistan, where drug-related illness is rising fast.Russia also wishes to obtain an unlimited share ofthe oil and natural gas from the region at pricespermitting profitable resale in Europe. Here thesituation is gradually slipping away fromGazprom, even if some pipeline projects aresupposed to accommodate all the energy Russianscan buy. Turkmenistan continues to sign contractswith all sides for more oil and gas than it canprobably produce. Naturally, such competition isforcing Gazprom to offer higher prices for CentralAsian natural gas. The price charged has risen to$150 per thousand cubic meters. Following theRussian invasion of Georgia, Europeangovernments may well be more eager to step in tobuild the long-awaited Nabucco gas pipeline from

4Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008the Caspian to Central Europe to whichAzerbaijan is committed.Export of oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhanpipeline will also increase significantly withKazakhstani participation. Russia was not able toblock this initiative by Azerbaijan, financed byAmerican and other Western oil companies.Kazakhstan will also send 20 million tons of oil toChina, or about one-fifth of its projected output.Even if Russia can extract more energy fromCentral Asia, increased supplies of either gas or oilbenefit consumers everywhere by reducing themarket price. Russia has not been able to controleither the world oil price or even the price ofnatural gas, a market where it encounters powerfulcustomers.IMPLICATIONS: As for trade in consumer orcapital goods, Russia is far from reconstitutingSoviet exclusivity. The ambitious EurasianEconomic Community (EurAsEC), a project longchampioned by Kazakhstan’s President NursultanNazarbaev and joined by Uzbekistan in 2006, hasregistered little practical progress. Besides petroenergyand hydropower, Russia is interested inbuying the non-ferrous metals of Central Asia.But what does Russia have in return, besides armsand nuclear plants? Overall, Central Asia is not animportant market for Russia. It accounts for just4% of Russia’s exports, about the same as in the1990s. Meanwhile, both China and other countrieshave established themselves in all the CentralAsian markets. China has been very successful inKyrgyzstan, where 62% of its imports in 2007 camefrom China, as compared with 17% from Russia.China supplied 20% of neighboring Tajikistan’smodest imports, about the same as Russia in 2007.The West has also increased its share.As for economic assistance, Russia has themoney—or did up to the recent financial crisis-butthere are many claimants closer to the Kremlin,not least the personal fortunes of the silovikithemselves. Russia reportedly denied the Tajiksassistance during the last winter, but the EU sent€8 million. The EU also promised financing forthe Rogun Hydroelectric Power Plant, a projectneglected so far by the Russians. Russia hasannounced energy projects throughout the region,but action is slow. For example, the modernizationof the Aqtau-Samarqand oil pipeline is “notprogressing very fast,” according to a Kremlinsource. Meanwhile, China’s Export-Import Bankis financing $300 million for the Zeravshanhydropower station in Tajikistan. Other currentprojects include railroad and road links to China.With regard to its public diplomacy aimed atcreating a positive image, Russia is not escapingblame for atrocities and environmentaldepredations committed in Central Asia duringthe Soviet period. President Islam Karimov hasrecently announced two new buildings tocommemorate victims of the Russian “colonialregime.” Here school children and other visitorswill view exhibits from Tsarist times and “theSoviet period…when the cruelest repressions tookplace.” On that site in Tashkent, Soviet secretpolice executed masses of “enemies of the people”during the 1930s.Russia’s efforts to win friends in Central Asia arehindered by popular attitudes. It is not too muchto assert that Russians lack respect for CentralAsians, who are associated in the public mind withterrorism, Islamism, and criminal mafia. Thenearly two million Central Asian migrant workerswithin the Russian Federation are frequentlyexploited, abused, and cheated with littleinterference from the authorities. A Federationlaw of 2007 limits the number of non-Russians inwholesale and retail markets. References inrespectable publications to the cultural andhistorical traditions of Muslim Central Asia or itscontributions to Russia are “extremely rare,”according to one observer.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 7Organization (ISRO), in order to establishbilateral cooperation in space affairs. The twocountries share very similar goals in space,although India is far more advanced, and bothseek new partners. They discussed the creationin Kazakhstan of a landing space, the launch ofIndian IRS rockets, which are known for thequality of the images they take in space, and theuse of a radar complex on Kazakh territory.Astana, for its part, was particularly interestedin the technology center in Bangalore thathouses the ISRO Rocket Center.IMPLICATIONS: The conquest of space isviewed as a technological challenge, as much asit is military or political, which confirms a riseto great power status. New Delhi has alreadymade a name for itself on the world market forlaunching heavy satellites. Valued at US$2.5billion each year, the country plans to send fiftymissions to space by 2013. This enthusiasm isdue largely to the space industry’s profitpotential, but also to the opportunities totransfer technology to the military sector. Therise of India’s military budget, which stood atUS$25 billion in 2008, is not only a result of badrelations with Pakistan, but also of globalcompetition with China for the status as thepremier Asian power. (By official counts,China’s annual military budget is US$60billion, but it is probably higher.) With a highlevelindustrial base, India seeks to quicklyacquire new space and military sector skills, inpart through collaborations with Russian,American, and European partners.In Central Asia, New Delhi hopes to gainaccess through arms sales and technologytransfers, which are relatively easy because theycan be sent by air and do not require transit byroad or train through Afghanistan. This shift totechnology can offset the weak Indian militarypresence in Central Asia. In the 1990s, someTurkmen and Tajik officers trained in militaryacademies in India. In 2003, Tashkent and NewDelhi endorsed the creation of a bilateralworking group to fight international terrorism,including the sharing of intelligence systemsand joint military and paramilitary exercises.India also purchased six Il-78 tankers from theTashkent aviation factory TAPO (formerlyknown as Tshkalov). In Kazakhstan, NewDelhi is particularly interested in the formationof the Caspian military fleet, a domain inwhich it hopes to overcome competition fromChina. Finally, India assists in the training ofspecialists for the future navy of Kazakhstan, aswell as mountainous combat units.India also sees Tajikistan as a country in whichto establish a military presence. Its proximity toAfghanistan is considered a key strategic factorfor securing India’s northern border. Since 2001,Pakistan has regularly closed its airspace toIndian planes, forcing New Delhi to seek newroutes. Tajikistan hosted joint aerial militaryexercises with India in 2004 near the Fakhrabadairfield, which is located in the region ofKhatlon. In particular, New Delhi has helped inthe training helicopter pilots, who takecoursework in aeronautical engineering. Indiadoes not want to limit itself to the renovation ofthe Aïni base; it hopes to install there its firstmilitary base abroad, although Moscow is alsopresent at the site. Dushanbe’s final decisionwill depend in part on the state of relationsbetween India and Russia. Although militaryindustrialcooperation is a key element of itsrelations with India, Moscow might refuse tosee another military power to rise in an areathat is strategic to its own interests. The planfor a space partnership with Kazakhstanappears to be the major means of entry intoCentral Asia for the Indian economy.

8Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008CONCLUSIONS: Space cooperation betweenKazakhstan and India is expected to grow in thecoming years. It remains to be seen whetherthis cooperation will move forward at Russia’sexpense or with its consent, however the latterseems more plausible. Russia cannot advance inthis sector without Baikonur, while New Delhineeds to share technology with Russia, andAstana does not have the training facilities andtechnical expertise needed to independentlymanage its space ambitions. The Russian-Indian rapprochement, especially in themilitary-industrial sector, could give birth totriangular space relations between Astana,Moscow, and New Delhi. Such a situationwould not be without self-interest and wouldquietly put aside Chinese cooperation that tendsto come with heavy consequences.AUTHOR’S BIO: Sebastien Peyrouse is aSenior Research Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road StudiesProgram Joint Center. He is the author ofTurkménistan, un destin au carrefour des empires(Paris, 2007, in French), among other books.New Policy Paper:In Defense of Greater Central AsiaBy S. Frederick StarrThe idea of an open Greater Central Asiathat is an economic and transport centerrather than a periphery, and a selfdeterminedsubject of international affairsrather than a pliable object, stands incontrast to the territorial colonialism ofyore and to the energy-driven colonialismwhich threatens the region today.The Paper can be downloaded free atwww.silkroadstudies.org. Hardcopyrequests should be addressed to KatarinaLesandric at caci2@jhu.edu.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 9GEORGIAN WAR INCREASES NUCLEARTERRORISM RISKSAlthough Russian-American bilateral cooperative threat reduction programs continue, thewar in Georgia has disrupted U.S.-led efforts to strengthen barriers against the transit ofdangerous nuclear materials through the South Caucasus. This development is especiallyworrisome given that the region has experienced some of the most serious proliferationscares since the Cold War. Given Moscow’s decreased interest in cooperating withWashington, the struggle against nuclear smuggling is likely to suffer.Richard WeitzBACKGROUND: Georgia has long been apriority region for U.S. nonproliferationprograms aimed at curbing illicit trafficking ofbiological, chemical, and especially nuclearmaterials through the South Caucasus to bothstate and non-state actors. Since the USSR’sdisintegration, many attempts to smuggle illicitradioactive materials through the SouthCaucasus and sell them on the black markethave been detected.The Georgian government has attempted toenhance the safety and security of the nuclearmaterials under its control, but the anarchicconditions, weak law enforcement, and porousborders in both Abkhazia and South Ossetiahave permitted widespread smuggling withneighboring Russian regions as well as intoGeorgia. This condition has facilitatedtrafficking in nuclear materials as well as moreconventional forms of contraband (e.g.,narcotics, counterfeit currency, and youngwomen). Georgia’s pivotal location at thecrossroads between Europe, Russia, Asia, andthe Middle East has raised concerns thattransnational trafficking networks could movenuclear materials from Russia through Georgiato international terrorist groups.During the 1990s, Georgia suffered a series ofworrisome incidents involving the discovery ofscattered, low-level radioactive materials“orphaned” after the USSR’s collapse. Thecountry has many scientific, medical,industrial, and other facilities containingradiological sources such as cesium-137 andstrontium-90. With the assistance of monitorsfrom the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) and funding from the U.S.government, Georgian authorities haverecovered hundreds of such radioactive sourcesin abandoned factories, waste depositories, andeven private homes. Besides being healthhazards in themselves, terrorists can use theseradioactive materials to fashion highlydisruptive dirty bombs, improvised explosivedevices which spew radioactive elements whenthey detonate.Although Georgia lacks a full-scale nuclearpower plant, two nuclear research institutesexist on its territory. The Institute of Physics,located in Tbilisi, closed in 1990. The second,the I. N. Vekua Institute of Physics andTechnology, has become an object ofconsiderable nonproliferation concern becauseit is located in Sukhumi, the capital ofAbkhazia, which has been a hotbed of regionalsmuggling and other lawless activity.According to some sources, up to two kilogramsof highly enriched uranium (HEU) disappearedfrom that Institute sometime in the early 1990sduring the civil war in that breakaway region.

10Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008The institute's former director, GuramBokuchava, maintains that Georgian authoritiesno longer know the status of the facility’snuclear materials. Mr. Bokuchava asserts thatwhen inspectors from the international AtomicEnergy Agency went to Sukhumi in 2002 toexamine the uranium stored at the institute,Abkhaz authorities would not let them visit thestorage site.In April 1998, the United States and othercountries conducted Operation AuburnEndeavor to avert a similar disaster at anotherGeorgian research reactor located near Tbilisi.Following years of unsuccessful negotiationswith the Russian government to permit therepatriation of the Soviet-made uranium fuellocated at the closed IRT-M research reactor inMtskheta, American officials eventuallyfunded an operation to transfer the nuclearmaterial to the British nuclear reprocessingplant at Dounreay, Scotland.In June 2003, Georgian authorities apprehendedGarik Dadayan, an Armenian national, in theborder town of Sadakhlo for attempting tosmuggle 170 grams of weapons-grade HEUacross Georgia’s borders with Armenia andAzerbaijan. Smuggling had become rampant inthe region after relations between Armenia andAzerbaijan deteriorated following their warover the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.Dadayan told investigators that he had acquiredthe material from intermediaries of Russian andother nationalities in Vladikavkaz, in theRussian republic of North Ossetia. Georgianauthorities concluded that the HEU originatedin Novosibirsk, the location of a major Sovietand now Russian nuclear complex.In 2006, Oleg Khintsagov, a Russian smugglerfrom North Ossetia, unsuccessfully attemptedto sell 100 grams of 90 percent highly enricheduranium in Georgia. He was arrested onFebruary 1, 2006, in a complex multinationalsting operation that eventually involved theCIA, the FBI, and the U.S. Department ofEnergy. Khintsagov and his accomplicesclaimed to have several more kilograms ofdiverted HEU available for sale, which theyapparently obtained with the help of Russianmiddlemen peddling nuclear material divertingfrom the country’s massive nuclear complex.(ABC News)IMPLICATIONS: These incidents—alongwith other, less serious nuclear trafficking casesin the region—highlight the vulnerability of theSouth Caucasus, especially Georgia, to thesmuggling of nuclear materials. The U.S.government has undertaken multiple initiativesto reduce the nuclear material smuggling intoand through the republic, but the Georgia Warhas disrupted some of the most importantinitiatives.Since 1998, the U.S. Department of Energy hasprovided radiation detection equipment andtraining to former Soviet republics such asGeorgia. The department plans to establishradiation detection systems at approximately450 land, air, and sea transportation points inthe former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 11the Mediterranean by the end of Fiscal Year2013. The U.S. Department of State ExportControl and Related Border Security Programhas also provided radiation detection equipmentand other counter-smuggling support to 30countries, mainly in the former Soviet Unionand Eastern Europe. The U.S. Department ofDefense has supplied a range of training andequipment related to border security and lawenforcement to Georgia and other formerSoviet republics. One project, for instance, hasequipped the Georgian Coast Guard and Navywith more effective technologies for combatingmaritime smuggling through the Black Sea.After the Khintsagov case revealed continuingproblems in Georgia’s defenses against nuclearsmuggling, the United States and Georgiasigned a major bilateral agreement in February2007 that provided for additional U.S.equipment and training for Georgians engagedin countering nuclear smuggling. Under theagreement, the United States agreed tostrengthen Georgia’s Nuclear RegulatoryAgency and its border patrol forces. Americanofficials also committed to assisting theirGeorgian counterparts in analyzing anyintercepted nuclear materials. Other countrieshave provided financing and other support forsome of these projects, which are part of theU.S. Nuclear Smuggling Outreach Initiative(NSOI).Through the NSOI, the United States isworking with Afghanistan, Armenia, Georgia,Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Ukraine, andTajikistan to enhance these countries’ ability toavert, identify, and react to nuclear smugglingincidents. A NSOI team conducts a jointassessment with the host government todevelop a joint action plan of steps to counternuclear smuggling better. The NSOI, which iscoordinated by the U.S. Department of State,then solicits American and other internationalassistance for projects the host country cannotcomplete on its own.At the time of the Georgia War, a Departmentof Energy team was in the process of installingnew U.S. radiation detection equipment atmajor transportation nodes such as bordercrossings and air and sea ports. On August 9,however, the department withdrew theAmericans working on the project in Georgia.When the inspectors returned to Georgia inOctober, they found that Russian bombs haddamaged several of the sophisticated radiationdetectors, some so severely that they have to bereplaced rather than repaired.CONCLUSIONS: The tense relations betweenRussia, Georgia, the United States and theother conflict parties make uncertain whentheir governments will resume nonproliferationcooperation in this vulnerable region. Sincemuch of the trafficked material appears tooriginate from Russian nuclear facilities andinvolve at least the passive collaboration ofRussian nuclear workers, improving countersmugglingoperations in the South Caucasuswill require considerable Russian assistance.Following the war, however, Russian PresidentDmitry Medvedev warned that Washingtonmight need to disown the current Georgiangovernment if it hoped for further securitycooperation from Moscow: “The RussianFederation is ready for coordinated, full-fledgedcooperation in fighting terrorism together withthe United States and other countries. Webelieve it is our main task and think it would befar more beneficial for the U.S. than developingrelations with rotten regimes.”AUTHOR’S BIO: Richard Weitz is a SeniorFellow and Director for Project Management atthe Hudson Institute.

12Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008GLOBAL CRISIS HITS LOCAL COMMUNITITESIN CENTRAL ASIAThis fall the economic slowdown in Kazakhstan and Russia, especially accelerated by theglobal credit crunch during recent weeks, hit hard the Central Asian seasonal migrants andtheir families. It is estimated that between two and three million seasonal migrants fromKyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have been working in various regions in Russiaand Kazakhstan. If the economic, social and legal needs of these migrants are not effectivelyaddressed soon, both the sending and receiving countries would face serious social andeconomic consequences.Rafis AbazovBACKGROUND: The collapse of the Sovieteraeconomic, social and investment tiesbetween Central Asian Republics and theRussian Federation in the early 1990s has had anegative effect on the Central Asian economies.However, within a decade a new type of theeconomic cooperation emerged on a verydifferent base, including the development of arudimentary common labor market, whichproved to be beneficial for all of the countriesinvolved. Since the mid-1990s and early 2000s,Kazakhstan and Russia have begun benefitingfrom the rising energy prices in theinternational market pouring billions of dollarsinto various infrastructure projects and raisingsalaries. The economic growth in these twocountries has created an increasing demand forlabor that their national labor markets alonecould not meet.This demand was largely met by migrantworkers from the Central Asian states(Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan),where the rapid population growth andstagnant economy put domestic labor marketsin turmoil. Under the pressure from budgetconstraints, the Central Asian governments cutsubsidies to agricultural and industrial sectors,but failed to attract significant investments torevive their failing economies. In thisenvironemnt, hundreds of thousands ofworkers lost their jobs, especially inoverpopulated and rural areas in the region, andextreme poverty skyrocketed. In the late 1990saverage teachers’ salaries in Tajikistan sank toabout US$15 a month. Thus, many of thoseworkers, especially young people, packed upand left for other countries attracted by jobopportunities. In the host countries they havepicked up low-skill jobs, agreeing to work forsalaries as low as US$200-300 per month.Gradually, the Central Asian migrants foundtheir niches in the construction and real estatesectors, in retail trade and food-catering, and inthe intensive agriculture and food processingbusinesses. Since the mid-1990s millions ofworkers from the Central Asian republics havebeen involved in seasonal migration to the moreprosperous countries in the north - Russia andKazakhstan - in search for higher incomes.Nobody knows for sure the exact number ofmigrants but various sources estimate thatbetween 15 and 30 percent of the working-agepopulation in sending countries have beeninvolved in temporary and permanent

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 13migration. This amounts to between 350,000and 800,000 migrants from Kyrgyzstan;between 700,000 and 1.2 million fromTajikistan, and between 700,000 and twomillion from Uzbekistan. For example,Kazakhstan’s internet newspaper Gazeta.kzreported recently that as of 2008 up to twomillion migrants have lived and worked in thecountry on temporary or permanent basis.These labor migrants benefited the sendingcountries in many ways. Scholars andinternational experts still debate the impact ofthe labor migration in the region. Among thepositive factors, they cite the integration of thesmall Central Asian economies into the global(AP)economy and the rise of remittances, whichaccounted for up to 20-40 percent of thenational GDP in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in2007. It is estimated that these migrants sendhome between one and US$ three billion perannum to support their immediate andextended families and to repay loans and creditsthat many of them have taken to cover the costof traveling to and doing business in foreigncountries. The emigration also helped to easethe pressure on the domestic labor markets andon welfare- and healthcare-systems in sendingcountries. Labor migration has createdeconomic interdependencies between thesending countries (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan andUzbekistan) and receiving countries (Russiaand Kazakhstan). Yet, experts also point outthe negative factors of the emigration forsending countries, including brain drain,separation and breaking up family and socialinstitutions, the rise of shadow financialinstitutions, human trafficking networks andincreasing exposure and dependency of theCentral Asian national economies to thefluctuations of global markets.IMPLICATIONS: The economic slowdownand global credit crunch have negativelyaffected the existing market equilibrium.Nezavisimaia Gazeta reported on October 10,2008 that the Russian currency, the Ruble, lost16.6 percent of its value during the last fewweeks and that several large constructionprojects were delayed. The economicdifficulties have led to a steep decline in labormarket demand in the receiving countries, asmany construction, renovation andinfrastructure projects in Russia and especiallyin Kazakhstan have been temporarily halted,delayed or abandoned all together and a lack ofjob openings in the retail sector. Tens if nothundreds of thousands migrant workers losttheir jobs and income opportunities. Thesituation has worsened even further due to thefact that these workers have few or no skills tofind other jobs in the receiving countries. Theimplications for migrants and their families arequite serious.First, the families of migrants that still live inCentral Asia have begun receiving muchsmaller remittances and many of them havestopped receiving any income from their

14Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008relatives abroad. This trend, if continued,would leave many families and communities inhardship during the forthcoming winter season.Second, it is expected that the highercompetition for jobs and economic resourceswould lead to social and political tensions inmany local communities if the migrant workersdecided to come back. These tensions wouldbecome even worse if the migrants would arrivewith little or no savings to support themselvesuntil the next season. Third, the mass returningof migrant workers would also cause anincreasing pressure on already fragile healthcareand social welfare infrastructure in many localcommunities. Some workers return home withchronic diseases, such as tuberculosis which, ifuntreated, would endanger the well-being ofmany communities in densely populated areasacross Central Asia. Fourth, the lack ofeconomic opportunities, unemployment andunderemployment pushes impoverished youngpeople into the black market that exposes themto illicit drugs, involvement in humantrafficking, criminal gangs or militant politicalgroups.Even the migrants who decided to remain inthe receiving countries face the consequences ofa deteriorating business climate both in Russiaand Kazakhstan, as they confront thedifficulties in adjusting to the tougher marketand social conditions, competing with locals forjobs.CONCLUSIONS: The global crisis andeconomic slowdown is here to stay andprobably no country in the region will beimmune from it. Therefore, it is very importantfor both the migrant-sending countries andmigrant-receiving countries to cooperate indealing with the challenges posed by populationmovement. One of the most pressing issues ismeeting the needs of both potential employersand employees by streamlining and easing thejob contracting process for migrant workers andby creating comprehensive job data-banks.More opportunities for vocational training andre-training for migrant workers both in thesending and receiving countries could helppeople to acquire new skills needed in thesectors less affected by the crisis or wouldprepare them for work in the new sectors of theeconomy. There is also a need to develop abetter business environment to providemigrants with more chances for selfemploymentthrough opening and operatingsmall and medium enterprises (SMEs). Finally,more efforts are needed for the integration themigrants in the receiving countries, even if theycome on a temporary basis, through supportingnetworks of NGOs and ethnic diasporas, whowould be in a better position to provide variousforms of assistance in emergency situations.AUTHOR’S BIO: Rafis Abazov, PhD, is anadjunct Assistant Professor at the HarrimanInstitute/SIPA at the Columbia University(New York). He is author of the HistoricalDictionary of Kyrgyzstan (2004) and The Cultureand Customs of the Central Asian Republics (2007).At present he conducts research on migrationtrends in Central Asia.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 15FIELD REPORTSELECTIONS IN AZERBAIJAN CONSTITUTE STEP FORWARD,BUT INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS REMAIN AMBIGUOUSAlman Mir IsmailPresidential elections in Azerbaijan, which tookplace on October 15, were the calmest and mostproperly organized in the country’s history. In spiteof a tough neighborhood, geopolitical rivalry overits natural resources and a history of a tense electionenvironment, Azerbaijan managed to conduct thelatest race with maintained stability and internalorder.The elections were conducted with severalprocedural improvements in place: voters couldverify their names in the voter lists online, thuseffectively eradicating the problem of missingnames in the lists. Web cameras were installed in10% of all polling stations to make sure that electioncommission members followed rules and norms, asprescribed by law. Previous technicalimprovements, such as inking fingers to avoidmultiple voting and usage of transparent boxes werealso maintained. More importantly, all sevenrunning candidates were provided live airtime onPublic TV to address the voters and debate issues ofnational importance.Incumbent President Ilham Aliyev received theoverwhelming majority of votes. According to theCentral Election Commission, 89% of the votersgave their votes to Aliyev. This came as no surprise.The country’s rapid economic development, heavyinvestments in public infrastructure and a balancedforeign policy between the West, Russia and theIslamic world satisfy the demands of people, whichhave lived through the terrible years of instabilityand chaos in the 1990s. The six other candidates,representing a new wave of opposition parties,gathered a small amount of votes but campaignedextensively both in Baku and the regions of thecountry. The actual campaign process wascharacterized by them as normal, since no majorobstacles were raised by local executive officialsagainst organizing town hall meetings, putting upposters and traveling to rural areas.Local specialists argued that a smooth electioncampaign was in the interest of the authorities,since they wanted to prove to the internationalcommunity that the country is indeed on the rightpath towards democracy and that all previouscriticism of its elections was taken intoconsideration. Besides, in the regional context,Azerbaijani officials hoped that free and fairelections would give the country a clear advantageover Armenia, where turmoil in connection withthe Presidential elections resulted in 8 deaths andseveral hundred wounded.Indeed the clearly improved election process didreceive some positive remarks from theinternational observers. Observers from the OSCEOffice for Democratic Institutions and HumanRights (ODIHR), the Parliamentary Assembly ofthe Council of Europe (PACE) and the EuropeanParliament (EP) concluded in a joint statementright after elections that Azerbaijan markedconsiderable progress. Election observers usedwordings like: “The election was conducted in apeaceful manner”, “There were notableimprovements in the conduct of this election … thevoting day can be generally viewed positively anddescribed as marking considerable progress”,“According to our observations on election day, theelections were well prepared and largely carried out

16Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008smoothly”, “The authorities made efforts to createmore equitable conditions for candidates, and theelection was organized in an overall efficientmanner”.Carl Bildt, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs andChairman of the Council of Europe's Committee ofMinisters, stated that “we welcome the progressmarked in the course of the election”. Javier Solana,High EU Representative on Foreign policy andSecurity, said that the “election was held calmly,without any violations of the law and was wellorganized, more fair conditions were provided to thecandidates from the opposition”. Similarly, BenitaFerrero-Waldner, High Commissioner of the EU'sEuropean Commission for Foreign Relations andEuropean Neighborhood Policy, welcomed theelection progress noted by the OSCE, and haspositively appreciated the more favorable conditionsfor oppositional candidates to campaign.However, international observers have also notedshortcomings, related to the “lack of robustcompetition and vibrant political discoursefacilitated by the media”. Major opposition partiesboycotted the elections, but many considered this anattempt to save face rather than subjectingthemselves to a clear defeat by Aliyev. Theconclusion was that elections “did not meet all ofthe country's international commitments.”Especially critical was the statement by EUPresidency, distributed by French embassy in Baku.Azerbaijani officials categorically disagreed withthese comments. Some of them expressed deepfrustration with the international observers, whomthey accused of double standards. “How is itpossible that the EU gives such a soft assessment ofArmenia’s elections, despite so much violence thereand gives such a harsh statement after Azerbaijan’selections?” asked one government official, whopreferred to stay anonymous. Both the Ministry ofForeign Affairs and the Central ElectionCommission issued statements, expressing theirsurprise and disappointment with the evaluation ofthe EU. "For unknown reasons, the statementdisseminated by the Presidency of the EuropeanUnion in its essence overturns the stand, on the onehand, of many thousands of observers who keptwatching the presidential election, and, on the otherhand, of the high-ranking EU officials," thestatement concluded.The majority of Azerbaijani government officialsconclude that constant criticism of the country’selections emanates from a Western interest in usingdemocracy as a tool for foreign policy pressure.Others believe that the Armenian lobby in keyWestern capitals such as Paris, Brussels andWashington play a role in such statements. In anycase, this addition to the perception of doublestandards in the West comes at a particularlysensitive time, following the loss of Westernprestige after the war in Georgia. Voices advocatingsimply ignoring the West, or changing the country’sforeign policy course, are now mounting within theAzerbaijani political leadership.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 17MEDVEDEV MAKES ANOTHER BID TO REACHBREAKTHROUGH IN NAGORNO KARABAKHHaroutiun KhachatrianThe official visit of Russian president DmitriMedvedev to Armenia on October 20-21 had one,serious political result (perhaps the only one): theproposal to the presidents of Armenia andAzerbaijan to meet in Moscow in an attempt to finda way out of the deadlock in the Nagorno Karabakhissue. This was in line with the policy of Moscow toconsolidate its positions in the South Caucasusthrough expanding its influence along the axisBaku-Yerevan-Ankara. Meanwhile, the results ofthe August war between Russia and Georgia madethis task even more urgent. Although Russia wonthe war in Georgia, the war has in fact weakened itspositions in the region, as its relations with Georgia,a central country in the South Caucasus, froze. Thismade Russian contacts with other countries of theregion, primarily Armenia, difficult, so Russiaurgently needs to strengthen its positions “beyondGeorgia”, i.e., along the hypothetical axis Baku-Yerevan-Ankara. A meeting on this topic will takeplace on November 2 in Moscow.Formally, Russia has good relations with all threecountries of this hypothetical axis. Armenia isRussia’s strategic partner in the military-politicalspheres and Moscow has serious economic interestsin this country, including the perspective of jointprocessing of uranium and the construction of a newnuclear power plant. The future of Russian-Azerbaijani ties also seem positive, especially sinceafter the August war Baku has begun paying moreattention to the prospects of exporting energythrough routes bypassing Georgia, and to the optionof exporting at least part of Azerbaijani oil andnatural gas through Russia. Finally, relationsbetween Moscow and Ankara are also fairly good(not least due to extensive bilateral trade) and canbe improved further, especially given the worseningrelations between Turkey and the United States dueto the problems in Iraq). Unfortunately, theinterstate relations among the states of this axis arenot good. Armenia and Azerbaijan are involved inthe frozen conflict over Nagorno Karabakh. Turkeyalso keeps its land border with Armenia closed andrejects normal relations with Yerevan, citing itssolidarity with Azerbaijan as a pretext.The August war seemed to create some ground foroptimism that a search for a way out of thesedeadlocks may at least be intensified. All the partiesinvolved recognized that, given the increasedtension caused by the Russian-Georgian conflict andthe recognition by Moscow of the separatist regionsof Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the preservation ofanother frozen conflict in the region, NagornoKarabakh, has become even more dangerous thanbefore. In addition, the “football diplomacy”between Turkey and Armenia, i.e., the unofficialvisit of Turkish president Abdullah Gul to Yerevanshed some hope that the relations between Yerevanand Ankara may come to a breakthrough. The timeseemed favorable for a new attempt to push theNagorno Karabakh peace process forward. In case ofat least modest success, Russia would be expected toenhance its positions in the region, and the generalsituation there would be improved as well.However, the events following Medvedev’sstatement in Yerevan leave little ground foroptimism. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia turnedfrom their earlier vague statements on theirwillingness to reach a breakthrough to toughdeclarations that they will not change their previouspositions on the future status of Nagorno Karabakh,which have always been mutually exclusive. IlhamAliyev said in his inauguration speech on October24 that any form of independence of NagornoKarabakh from Azerbaijan would be excluded. TheArmenian president Serzh Sarkisian on his partreplied on October 26 that a solution of the conflictis only possible if Azerbaijan recognizes the right ofself-determination of the Nagorno Karabakh people.In addition, Armenia stresses the importance of

18Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008following the Madrid principles proposed by theMinsk group co-chairs last December, whichenvisage holding a referendum in NagornoKarabakh about the status of the enclave, whereasAzerbaijan would not support such a referendum.Finally, Turkish officials have said that the previouspolicy of Ankara, whereby relations with Armeniaare conditioned with progress in the NagornoKarabakh issue in favor of Azerbaijan, has notchanged.One principal difference between the scheduledMoscow summit of November 2, 2008 and previoussimilar meetings in Key West, USA in 2001, andRambouillet, France, in 2006 is that now the Minskgroup co-chairs are not as united as before. One ofthe negative consequences of the August war was asplit between Russia on one hand, and France andthe USA, on the other. Although all the three cochairshave expressed commitment to support thepeace process further, the lack of unity among themmay also be a factor hindering the progress. Thewestern countries may not be happy to see strongerRussian positions in the South Caucasus due to abreakthrough in Karabakh.Finally, progress in the Nagorno Karabakh issue onNovember 2 is possible only on secondary issues,which are not directly related to the core problem ofthe enclave’s status.UZBEKISTAN OPTS FOR FOOD CROPS PRODUCTIONErkin AkhmadovOn 20 October 2008, the President of the Republic ofUzbekistan adopted the presidential decree “OnMeasures for Optimizing Cultivated Areas andIncreasing Food Crops Production”. The decreelargely aims to increase the amount of land growingfood crops by decreasing the volumes of cottoncrops. Since Uzbekistan is one of the largestproducers and exporters of cotton in the world, thedecree caught many by surprise. Shortly before theadoption of the decree, Uzbekistan’s Minister ofExternal Economic Relations, Investments andTrade, Elyor Ganiev stated at the opening of IVUzbek International Cotton Fair that the amount ofareas growing cotton will remain as before. The textof the decree explains the decision throughpersistent shortages of water that creates numerousproblems for growing cotton, constant price rises forfood in the global market and an intention toincrease the variety of food crops grown in therepublic to satisfy the population’s needs, and toimprove the welfare of the rural population. Asalways, the intentions of the government seemhonorable, however, some possible outcomes andconsequences of the measure should be considered.Based on the data of the Ministry of Agriculturaland Water Industry, cotton crops are currentlycultivated on 1391000 hectares. In accordance withthe decree, 76000 hectares will be freed from cottoncrops; 50000 of those freed from cotton will be usedfor sowing grain and barley and the rest forvegetables, melons and gourds. In light of persistentwater shortages, it is questionable how much waterthe state will actually be able to save. The largestportion of the land will still be used for growingcotton and any type of crop needs water to grow.At first sight, it seems that the government ofUzbekistan is concerned with the state’s foodsecurity. Considering that grain prices on averagemore than doubled over the last few years, and thatthe winter promises nothing good, the plan seemsquite logical. As reflections of some peasantspublished in local newspapers suggest, with thedecree implemented, their welfare will improvegreatly since before, when only cotton crops weresown, peasants had to buy fruit, vegetables and foodcrops. Now, they will supposedly have their own.Closer scrutiny may reveal, however, that besidesimproving the welfare of peasants and farmers, the

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 19state may also gain some profits. Uzbekistanproduces seven million tons of vegetables annuallyand demand for these grows constantly. Thus,preliminary estimates suggest that with localmarket saturation, the export of vegetables mightgrow by 5-10%.Among other explanations for Uzbekistan’sdecision to “change gears” could be the persistentproblem of the country’s cotton-picking practicesand the international community’s discontent withthese. Since some major European and Americantrading partners for cotton have suspendedcooperation with Uzbekistan because it exploitschild labor, the government may have decided tosmoothly change the state’s mode of production.Interestingly enough, by doing this the state seeksto shift the focus from one type of rights violation,but in fact ends up embarking upon another one. Bycommanding what to grow, the state ignores theinterests of farmers, the owners of the land. Ideally,they should be the ones to decide what to grow andhow much. In real life, however, it is the state thatregulates such matters.The last but not least factor to consider concernsUzbekistan’s interest in obtaining external funding.On 23 October 2008 first vice-premier, Minister ofFinances Rustam Azimov and the head of theWorld Bank office in Uzbekistan Lu Brefor signedan agreement on credit financing for the secondphase of a project supporting agricultural enterprisesof Uzbekistan – RESP II, for which theInternational Association of Development aims toprovide a credit of US$68 million. It will allowfarmers of ninety areas of seven regions of therepublic to increase the productivity of theagricultural industry, improve land reclamation andirrigation, and introduce new systems for qualityand enterprise management. The intensity of cottoncultivation in Uzbekistan is not in line with theobjectives of this initiative. Therefore, thegovernment’s decision to reduce cotton farming andexpand the variety of agricultural produce could beviewed by the project representatives as a positivechange.In general, the presidential decree to reduce cottonproduction and increase that of food crops seems toaim at improving the situation in the agriculturalsector and people’s welfare in Uzbekistan. However,looking at the possible reasons and effects of thedecree, it is still questionable whether the desiredresults will be achieved without bringing even moreharm.KYRGYZSTAN: CAN NEW TAX CODE BOOST BUSINESS?Nurshat AbabakirovOn October 20, President Kurmanbek Bakiev signeda new Tax Code, which will come into force thisJanuary. The government believes it will boost theeconomy by decreasing prices of domestic products,stifle corruption, and, importantly, pull nationalbusiness out of the illegal market. It decreases thetax burden on small-scale businesses at the expenseof the financial service sector, commerce, andconstruction business.“The government made big concessions regardingthe tax code,” said Askar Shadiev, the Chair of theparliament’s committee on finance and budget,implying that the wide range of opinions among theparliamentarians forged the tax code. It has becomemore “equitable” with fewer taxes, but an increasedtax burden. It will give a certain package of taxexemptions to the vulnerable layers of populationand tax privileges to produce industries, whileheavily targeting the middle and large-scalebusiness.Taxes for small-scale businesses are slashed in halfincluding the value added tax (VAT), which isdecreased from 20 to 12 percent. Also, somestraightforward methods of administration are

20Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008claimed to be implemented in order to prevent taxinspectors from coming face-to-face with taxpayers.The latter can now submit tax declarations via theInternet and make payments within an extendedtimeframe.A month ago, during the hot discussions, followingthe first reading of the tax draft in the parliament,representatives of 16 business associations addressedan open letter to President Kurmanbek Bakiev,Speaker of Parliament Aytibai Tagaev, and PrimeMinister Igor Chudinov. Noting the haste inadopting the draft, the chairman of the local unionof banks, Anvar Abdraev, said that only symbolicpoints of suggestions of business representativeswere considered. The changes would generally boostcorruption in the tax inspection body and trigger auniversal price rise, especially at a time of cripplinginflation rates, which can lead to a social unrest, thebusiness representatives argued.Being adopted for the first time, real property andsales taxes were the primary subjects of debate. Theformer measure contradicts the constitution, whichguaranteed private property rights. It will targetluxurious apartments, mansions, and lands held bycorporations, while bypassing ordinary people withsymbolic taxes. Taxes on farmlands are increasedby 30 percent, quite a disturbing trend when manyfarmers abandon their lands due to loss-making andcrippling inflation partly caused by the food crisis.Unlike the current tax code, which requires a courtdecision on property matters, the new one makesthe fiscal bodies the sole institution to decide onproperty of tax debtors, review complaints, anddevelop tax norms as well as instructions for itself.Somewhat overstated by the government, the salestax reform replaced a number of minor taxes, suchas those levied on roads, service and retail sales.Dinara Iskakova, the financial director of the localbranch of the Coca-Cola Company, stressed the“cascade” nature of the sales tax. She predicted a 25-40 percent price rise at the end of the downstreamdistribution of products, given the multiple stages ofthe business transactions, and, in her view, this willliterally paralyze trade. In the long run, the businessrepresentatives argue, the reforms will increaseprices for daily and manufactured products, andswell the interest rates for loans, offsetting the longcoveteddecrease of VAT. Moreover, they say, thedecrease of the VAT from 20 to 12 percent will notboost business’s income since the inflation causedtheir products to rise already by 60 percent.The tax code is not final. In order to make it work,the government has to issue about 20 billselaborating on its ambiguities and adjusting the newtax code to the legal framework, says the State TaxAgency. Such contradictions will generate furthercomplications, argue the business people.Under the current tax code, only 20 percent ofbusinesses pay taxes, mostly medium-sized andlarge enterprises, said Akylbek Japarov, theMinister of Economic Development and Trade.There were attempts by the government to adopt aprinciple of 'single window' to facilitate businessregistration to attract investment to the country.However, small businesses consisting primarily ofretailers, work on a license basis. Pointing toretailers at Dordoi Bazaar, one of the largestmarkets in Central Asia of goods flowing fromChina, Adylbek Kasymaliev, the deputy chief of theState Tax Agency, said that this category of taxpayers must be smoothly reduced with closer taxadministration.According to Kubanychbek Aidaraliev, the chiefexecutive covering fiscal policy under the Ministryof Economic Development and Trade, it will notincrease the burden on trade, but will increase theexpenditures of the population by 2-3 percent. Howtightly it will push consumers who are alreadystruggling with rising prices to the corner, will beshown by the inflation rate. Yet, the government’stax administration has always lacked effectiveness,which is likely to hide any immediate results of thenew tax policy.

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 21NEWS DIGESTBP SEES BOOM IN AZERI I ENERGY SECTOR17 OctoberBP-Azerbaijan said its total investments for oilfields and pipeline arteries in the region could total$28 billion, top officials said Friday. BP GlobalExecutive Director Andy Inglis said productionfrom the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli and Shah Denizfields could bring major investment opportunities tothe oil-rich region, Trend Capital News reported.Gas production from the Shah Deniz field alone isexpected to reach 8.6 billion cubic meters, withthose volumes expected to reach 20 billion cubicmeters in 2012. Meanwhile, the Azeri Press Agencynoted the State Oil Co. of Azerbaijan said it wouldincrease the volume of gas exports to Georgia fromthe Shah Deniz and ACG fields. "Because of recenthappenings, Georgian companies terminatedcooperation with Russian Gazprom. Azerbaijan willprobably offer an increase in gas exports to thiscountry," said SOCAR's Murad Heydarov. Theregion hosts the 1,099-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oilpipeline, with BP-Azerbaijan as the majorityshareholder. (UPI)VAST NEW MOSQUE OPENS INCHECHNYA17 OctoberA new mosque in the Russian region of Chechnya -described by the authorities as the biggest in Europe- has opened. The Heart of Chechnya mosque hasbeen built in the centre of the capital, Grozny - on aspot where civil war raged only a few years ago.Hundreds of local people attended the opening ofthe mosque, which was built in memory ofChechnya's assassinated pro-Kremlin leaderAkhmad Kadyrov. His son Ramzan - the presentruler - led the inauguration ceremony. Muslimsplayed traditional instruments outside the mosque,built in the classical Ottoman style, and reminiscentof the Sultan Ahmed Mosque in Istanbul. TheTurkish-built structure, which can hold 10,000worshippers, has risen where there was only rubble,says BBC correspondent James Rodgers. Itsminarets tower over the centre of Grozny, wheremany of the streets are still being rebuilt. It is only afew years since the site of the mosque and the entiresurrounding area were nothing more than a layer offractured masonry. Ramzan Kadyrov has presidedover a massive, Moscow-funded reconstructionprogramme, of which the mosque is the centrepiece.Like his father, Mr Kadyrov once took up armsagainst Moscow's rule, but later switched sides. Atthe opening ceremony he stressed his loyalty to theKremlin - saying that with the help of the federalauthorities, the Chechen people had thwarted plansto bring about Russia's collapse. "The Chechens...have defended the integrity of Russia and the purityof Islam," he said. (BBC)KAZAKHSTAN TO INJECT $15B INTOECONOMY20 OctoberThe Kazakh government said Monday it will injectbillions from its oil coffers to keep the countryafloat during the global economic crisis. Kazakhstanhas emerged as a bright spot amid the worldeconomic collapse. Steven Mann, the U.S. StateDepartment's envoy to the region, said last week thecountry was paving the way in the new globalenergy market. "Kazakhstan is the world leader inenergy resources," he said. Kazakh Prime MinisterKarim Masimov said his government plans to dumpa large portion of the oil-rich country's grossdomestic product into the economy to stave off arecession, RIA Novosti reported. "An additional $15billion will be injected into the economy by the endof the year, or about 15 percent of the country'sGDP," the premier said. The freezing of worldcredit markets and the subsequent downturn in theeconomy has some oil-producing countriespostponing or delaying planned expansions. (UPI)ABKHAZIA TO HOST TWO RUSSIAN BASES– SHAMBA21 OctoberRussia will station troops in Abkhazia at twomilitary bases – in Gudauta and Ochamchire,Sergey Shamba, the breakaway region’s foreign

22Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008minister, said on October 21. Russian troops willalso have outposts in upper Kodori Gorge, he said,according to the Abkhaz official news agency,Apsnipress. Russia will have 3,800 servicemen inAbkhazia, Shamba said. Russia plans to leave thesame number of troops in South Ossetia, accordingto the Russian Defense Ministry. “As a result,Abkhazia will be provided with appropriate securityguarantees from Russia,” the breakaway region’sforeign minister said.He also said that it was planned, as envisaged in apartnership and cooperation treaty with Russia, tosign an agreement with Russia that would pave theway for Russian assistance in protecting the Abkhazborder with Georgia. Meanwhile, the Russian daily,Kommersant, reported on October 21 that theRussian Federal Security Service (FSB) planned totake a lead in protecting the Abkhaz and SouthOssetian borders. The border guard unit in Russia isunder FSB subordination. A relevant agreement,according to the newspaper, will be signed as soonas the Russian parliament ratifies the partnershipand cooperation treaties with the two breakawayregions. (Civil Georgia)RETURN OF GEORGIANS TO ALL PARTS OFABKHAZIA IMPOSSIBLE – SHAMBA21 OctoberWhile not resisting the return of Georgians to Galidistrict and upper Kodori Gorge, the Abkhazauthorities will not allow them to return to otherparts of Abkhazia, Sergey Shamba, the Abkhazforeign minister, said.At a meeting with a group of experts from theOSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions andHuman Rights (ODIHR) in Sokhumi on October20, Shamba said, according to the Abkhaz newsagency Apsnipress, that Sokhumi had encouragedthe return of Georgian displaced persons and had“even accomplished this process” in the Galidistrict. The Abkhaz side, he said, was notpreventing the return of residents of upper KodoriGorge who fled the area after it was taken over bythe Abkhaz forces during the August war betweenRussia and Georgia. “However, at this stage, againstthe background of tensions and confrontationcoming from the Georgian side, it seems impossibleto consider the return of Georgian refugees to otherparts of Abkhazia,” Shamba said. (Civil Georgia)TAJIKISTAN CLEARS DEBTS TO RUSSIA -FINANCE MINISTER23 OctoberTajikistan's finance minister said on Thursday thecountry had completely repaid its debts to Russia."The remaining part of the debt, worth $15 million,has been repaid over the nine months of this year,"Safarali Nadzhmuddinov told a news conference.The Central Asian country owed Russia $50 million,which Russia has invested in the Sangtuda-1hydropower plant project under a 2004 agreement.The minister also said as of October 1, his country'sforeign debt stood at $1.383 billion, or 29.1% of GDP.Tajikistan's main creditors are the World Bank, theAsian and the Islamic development banks. (RIANovosti)TBILISI CONDEMNS RUSSIA’SSIA’S‘PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS’ ’ IN S.OSSETIA23 OctoberGeorgian Deputy Foreign Minister GrigolVashadze said a Russian troop increase in SouthOssetia was “a provocation,” adding that Russiawanted to destabilize Georgia so as tohamper economic development and investment.Georgia claimed on October 23 that Russia hadincreased its military presence in the breakawayregion by 2,000 troops in the previous week, briningthe total number to 7,000. Russia denied the report,saying it was deliberate disinformation.“It isabsolutely clear that they have been brought forprovocative purposes,” Vashadze told journalists onOctober 23. “Russia has a single goal – to maintaininstability in Georgia as long as possible. You knowthat not only military force is a weapon for Russia,but the same can be said about instability that willensure that the Georgian economy receives as littleinvestments as possible.” Vashadze also said thatthe Georgian side had informed internationalorganizations of the troop increase. The Georgiandeputy foreign minister also commented on RussianForeign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement, inwhich he accused Georgia of violating the ceasefireagreement and deploying special purpose units nearthe administrative borders with Abkhazia andSouth Ossetia. “Georgian troops remain at theplaces of their permanent locations – in Senaki andGori. As far as special troops are concerned, youknow that the EU monitors are stationed there, whoobserve violations from time to time. But noviolations by the Georgian side have ever beenobserved,” Vashadze said. (Civil Georgia)

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 23MEDVEDEV IN ARMENIA FOR ECONOMICTALKS24 OctoberRussian President Dmitry Medvedev arrived inArmenia Tuesday as the country struggles with oilinfrastructure and energy imports. Russia saidearlier it had pulled out of development of an oilrefinery in Armenia. Igor Levitin, the Russiantransport minister, said Moscow investors are nolonger interested in developing a 35 million-barrelper-dayrefinery because of the high cost of oilprocessing, Trend Capital News said Tuesday.Armenia lacks domestic oil production, leaving thecountry reliant on Iran and Russia for energyimports. The country imports about 7 billion cubicfeet of natural gas from Russia each year andconverts Iranian gas to electricity to trade back tothe Islamic Republic. The U.S. Energy InformationAdministration said the domestic consumption inArmenia is completely dependent on imports.Territorial disputes over the Nagorno-Karabakhregion of Azerbaijan, which Armenia occupies, havebrought difficulties to the country economically.Though Medvedev said his country was interestedin brokering an agreement of the territories, hisprime objective was to ease regional repercussionsfrom the global economic crisis. (UPI)ABKHAZ AUTHORITIES BLAME BGEORGIAFOR BRIDGE BLAST24 OctoberThe explosion of the railway bridge over the riverInguri in the security zone on the Georgian-Abkhazborder is an act of sabotage perpetrated byGeorgia, said Abkhaz Defense Minister MirabKishmariya. "We believe it is another act ofsabotage by Georgia," Kishmariya said in aninterview with Interfax. (Interfax)GEORGIA SAYS BRIDGE BLOWN UP INGALI24 OctoberRussian forces in Abkhazia destroyedthe Shamgona-Tagiloni bridge connecting theGali region of Abkhazia with the Zugdidi regionearly on October 24, the Georgian Interior Ministrysaid.This is the second bridge destroyed in Abkhaziawithin the past few days, according to the GeorgianInterior Ministry. “Such an action aims atcutting off the Gali population from the rest ofGeorgia,” the Ministry said in a statement. (CivilGeorgia)CASPIAN ENERGY CORRIDORDEVELOPING10 OctoberOpening an office of the state-run Azeri energycompany in Kazakhstan is a sign of the desire tomove ahead with the Trans-Caspian oil pipeline,officials said.In an interview with Trend Capital News, thedirector of the Kazakh office of the State Oil Co. ofAzerbaijan, Vurgun Jafarov, said proceeding withTrans-Caspian energy transport pipelines wasdependent on bilateral relations between the twocountries. "I hope this will help intensify businesscooperation as a whole and enhance the process ofsuch a large project as the Trans-Caspian oiltransportation system," he said. The Trans-Caspianoil pipeline is a proposed 435-mile route from theAktau port in Kazakhstan to Baku in Azerbaijanwith connections to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhanpipeline, the second longest in the world. There areplans for a similar natural gas pipeline. Jafarov saidthe volatile world economic situation made itnecessary to move quickly on the project. "Lost timemeans a lost project, more so now, when all formatsare changing," he said. Construction on the pipelineis intended to move ahead to the point thatoperations can commence by 2012. (UPI)REPORTED INCIDENT IN GEORGIATERRORIST ATTACK – MINISTRY25 OctoberA reported landmine explosion that killed thegovernor of Tsalendzhikha, a district borderingAbkhazia on Saturday, should be qualified as aterrorist attack, Georgia's Foreign Ministry said. Inexplaining the death of governor Gia Mebonia, theministry said European Union observers, Georgianpolice and members of the Tsalendzhikhaadministration went to the village of Muzhava inthe district on Saturday, to investigate an allegedincident the day before in which fire was openedtoward Muzhava from Abkhaz territory controlledby Russian armed forces. "As the motorcade wasapproaching the site of the incident, two delayactivation landmines exploded and fire was openedwith grenade launchers," the ministry said in astatement. "As a result, the head of administrationof Tsalendzhikha district, Gia Mebonia, was killed,"the document said. "The EU observers remainedunhurt," the statement added. On Friday, about 200Russian troops approached the village Khurvaleti inthe Georgian district of Gori and that "it was onlythe intervention of members of the European Union

24Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008mission that made it possible to defuse thesituation," the statement said. The ministry urgedresolute international measures "to prevent a newwide-scale provocation against Georgia that is beingplanned by Russia." Interfax has been unable toobtain comments on the statement from anyRussian official so far. Earlier, the police chief of theAbkhaz district of Gali denied that Abkhazia wasresponsible for the alleged attack on ofTsalendzhikha. "There have been no incidents orarmed attacks in the communities near the Georgianborder over the past twenty-four hours," LourensKogonia told Interfax. Kogonia said, however, that avillager had been injured by a landmine near hishome in Muzhava. The police chief claimed it wasunclear who had planted the mine. The villager "hadbeen gathering and selling nonferrous metal scrapand the incident most likely had to do with hisactivities," Kogonia said. He named the villager asOtar Sabulua. (Interfax)PAKISTAN TROOPS KILL 11 TALIBANMILITANTS: OFFICIAL26 OctoberPakistani troops on Sunday killed 11 Talibanmilitants in clashes in a tribal area on the borderwith Afghanistan which is seen as a safe haven forIslamic extremists, officials said. The clashes inBajaur came one day after the military announced ithad recaptured an Al-Qaeda and Taliban strongholdin the area after two months of fighting which left1,500 rebels and 73 soldiers dead. In one incident,insurgents attacked a security post on the outskirtsof Bajaur's main town of Khar. Troops retaliated,killing six rebels, a security official said. Five morefighters were killed when troops attacked asuspected militant base in Charmang district,another security official said, adding that twomilitant vehicles were destroyed by helicoptershelling. On Saturday, the head of Pakistan'sparamilitary Frontier Corps, Major General TariqKhan, said forces had driven insurgents out ofLoisam, a strategic town in Bajaur which is at acrossroads of extremist supply routes. Securityforces captured more than 300 foreign militants inthe operation, mainly from Afghanistan,Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, Khan said. Pakistan'stribal belt became a haven for hundreds of Al-Qaedaand Taliban extremists who fled the US-ledtoppling of Afghanistan's hardline Taliban regimein late 2001. Islamabad has previously hailed itsoperation in Bajaur as proof that it is responding toUS and Afghan demands to take action againstextremists, who are accused of launching attacks onUS and other foreign troops in Afghanistan. Khansaid the operation in Bajaur "could go for severalmonths before the area is completely cleared ofmilitants". In neighbouring Mohmand tribal zone,12 people, mainly paramilitary soldiers, werewounded late Sunday in a suicide car bomb attackon a checkpost, a senior security official said.Elsewhere, 15 people including 10 Taliban militantswere killed in a gun battle with locals in the restivenorthwestern Swat valley, which has been rockedby a violent campaign for Islamic law, officials said.(AFP)ABKHAZIA MAY MAKE TERRITORIALCLAIMS TO GEORGIA27 OctoberIn the future Abkhazia may make territorial claimsto Georgia, head of the Abkhaz parliamentarycommittee for education, science and culture ValeryKvarchia has told Interfax. "Several [up to 14]frontier villages currently under Georgia'sjurisdiction such as Khurcha, Pakhulani and othershistorically belonged to Abkhazia and were givenover to Georgia without any justification in Soviettimes," he said. Kvarchia said a parliamentarycommission set up to describe the border ofAbkhazia has compiled a memo on the eastern andsoutheastern borderline. He accounted theformation of the commission to new circumstances- "the international recognition of the independenceand sovereignty of Abkhazia, and the finalliberation of its territory and return of primordiallands." Last Friday the parliament of Abkhaziapassed a resolution approving the state border ofAbkhazia which indicates that the border withRussia in the north and northwest will run along theGreater Caucasus Mountain Range from MountDonguz-Orunbashi to Mount Agepsta and along thePsou river from its source to the Black Sea. In thesouth the border will run along the coastline. In theeast and southeast Abkhazia will border withGeorgia from Mount Donguz- Orunbashi, along theNeskra river to the Inguri and along the Inguri tothe Black Sea.(Interfax)OVER 200 MILITANTS SEIZED SINCHECHNYA IN 2008 – NURGALIYEV27 OctoberChechen police have proven to be efficient, RussianInterior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev said at theopening of the Sever battalion's compound inGrozny on Monday. "The Chechen Interior

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 25Ministry seems to be one of the most efficiententities in the entire Russian police force. We judgeby the number of prevented terrorist acts and strikeson militants," he said. "Four gangs were neutralizedand more than 200 militants were seized in the firstnine months of this year. The overall crime rate inChechnya dropped by 22%," the minister said.(Interfax)RUSSIA SEEKS LONG-TERM COOPERATIONWITH MUSLIM WORLD – TATARSTAN’SPRESIDENT28 OctoberRussia has become a predictable partner of theMuslim world, President of Russia's internalrepublic of Tatarstan Mintimer Shaimiyev said."One can say that Russia has clearly defined itsstrategic path in the Muslim East. It has become apredictable partner to the Muslim world,"Shaimiyev told the opening ceremony of the fourthmeeting of the Russia and Islamic World strategicvision group in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Shaimiyev,who is one of the Russian co-chairmen of the group,noted that the meeting will primarily be about"restoring the required level of trust andpredictability in our relations, as well as makingclear that the aspiration to develop long-termcooperation with the Islamic world is not atimeserving issue to Russia." The president ofTatarstan also said that there is mutual interest indeveloping cooperation between Russia and Muslimcountries. "One should bear in mind the fact thatstrategic partnership with Russia, which seeksmulti-polar world order and does not encroach onvalues, traditions, authenticity and sovereignty ofcountries of the Muslim East, is very important toMuslim countries as well," he said. The Russia andIslamic World strategic vision group wasestablished in 2006. Shaimiyev and head of theRussian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs(RUIE) Yevgeny Primakov co-chair the group onthe Russia side. The group is a consultative bodywhose goal is to expand cooperation in all spheresbetween Russia and Muslim countries. (Interfax)AZERI OIL EXPORTS UP SEVEN-FOLD28 OctoberCrude oil exports from major pipeline arteries inAzerbaijan generated about $36 billion from Januaryto September, state officials said Tuesday.Azerbaijan exported around 454 million barrels ofcrude oil, worth an estimated $36.2 billion, fromJanuary. Around 13 million of that oil traveled byrail, with the remainder channeling through majorpipeline arteries originating in the capital, Baku, theAzeri Press Agency reported. Those exports were 7.1times greater than during the same period last year.BP-Azerbaijan, a major operator in the region andmajority shareholder of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhanpipeline, forecast $28 billion in infrastructureinvestments in the coming years. Meanwhile, theState Oil Co. of Azerbaijan said plans to expand itsoffices into Kazakhstan would help boost regionalpipeline capacity through the Trans-Caspian energyroutes. "I hope this will help intensify businesscooperation as a whole and enhance the process ofsuch a large project as the Trans-Caspian oiltransportation system," SOCAR's Vurgun Jafarovsaid earlier this month. (UPI)RUSSIA DETERMINED TO BROADENINTERACTION WITH ISLAMIC WORLD –MEDVEDEV28 OctoberPresident Dmitry Medvedev has sent greetings tothe fourth meeting of the Russia-Islamic Worldstrategic vision group in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, theKremlin reported on Tuesday. "Russia's developingcooperation with the Islamic states remains highlydynamic. Your Group is playing no small part inthis," Medvedev writes. "Russia, a country withobserver status in the Organization of the IslamicConference, intends to abide firmly to its course toexpand active interaction with the Islamic world. Ithink in connection withthis, that a broad discussion of the initiative tofurther develop interregional dialogue, proposed byKing Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saudi of SaudiArabia, is of crucial importance, taking into accounta significant role the religious factor is playing ininternational affairs," he said. "I am also convinced,that the implementation of the Russia-proposed ideaof forming a consultative council of religions underUN aegis, will help strengthen the moral principlesof world politics, facilitate deeper inter-confessionalcommunication and, in a broader context, promotethe dialogue of civilizations," the Russian presidentwrites. "The illusion of the uni-polar world isbecoming a thing of the past in front of our eyes.Forums like yours can contribute significantly tothe search for ways to make the situation in theworld healthier and to attain a new level of globalpartnership," Medvedev said. "I am convinced thatRussia's active interaction with the Islamic worldwill help build a fairer system of internationalrelations, where the factor of force will finally stop

26Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008playing the role of universal instrument of settlingall emerging problems," he said. The message ofgreetings was read out at the meeting by TatarstanPresident Mintimer Shaimiyev, on behalf of theRussian president. (Interfax)SWISS EXPERT TO LEAD INTERNATIONALPROBE INTO AUGUST WAR – KOUCHNER28 OctoberFrench Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said inan interview with the Russian daily Kommersant,published on October 28, that a group of“intellectuals, politicians and lawyers” will make upan international investigative commission, whichwould probe the causes of the August war betweenRussia and Georgia. Kouchner said that “a ladyfrom Switzerland” would chair the commission.Although he refused to name her, he ruled out CarlaDel Ponte and added that the person in questionwas an expert on Caucasus issues. The Frenchforeign minister said that he hoped both Russia andGeorgia would cooperate with the commission and“open up their archives.” He said that a refusal tocooperate would cause international condemnation.“The commission will be meeting with defenseministers, presidents. I do not know whether Mr.Medvedev will agree. Anyway, why should herefuse to cooperate with the investigation?”Kouchner said.The Georgian leadership hasstated several times it would cooperate with aninternational investigative group. EkaTkeshelashvili, Georgia’s foreign minister, told theGeorgian parliamentary commission studying theAugust war on October 25 that Tbilisi was “open forcooperation with an international investigation.”(Civil Georgia)TEHRAN INTERESTED IN TIES WITH SCO:DAVOUDI29 OctoberFirst Vice-President Parviz Davoudi said onWednesday that Tehran is determined to furtherexpand ties with member states of ShanghaiCooperation Organization. He made the remarkprior to his departure for Astana, Kazakhstan, toattend regular session of Prime Ministers Council ofShanghai Cooperation Organization to be held onOctober 29-30. Iran attaches special importance toits relations with the SCO member states, Davouditold reporters gathered at Mehrabad InternationalAirport. He added that russia, China, Kazakhstan,Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan are theSCO member countries and Iran, India, Mongoliaand Pakistan are the observer states. Iran sharecommon interests with the SCO member states, hesaid, adding that the two sides cooperate in the areasof expansion of exports markets, transit of goods,and transportation. The two sides also cooperate inthe areas of security, campaign against extremismand anti-drug combat in the region, the VP added.The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is anintergovernmental mutual-security organizationwhich was founded in 2001 by the leaders of China,Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan andUzbekistan. Except for Uzbekistan, the othercountries had been members of Shanghai Five,founded in 1996, after the inclusion of Uzbekistan in2001, the members renamed the Organization.(IRNA)TBILISI REFUTES ‘WAR CRIME’ CLAIMS29 OctoberBBC reported on October 28 that it had obtainedevidence suggesting Georgia used indiscriminateforce and may have targeted civilians in SouthOssetia during the August war. BBC also reportedthat during its first unrestricted visit to the region,it had also seen homes in ethnic Georgian villages“not just burned by Ossetians, but also bulldozed.”“We strongly deny any accusation of war crimes;but of course, we are very open for any kind ofcomments, we are very open for any kind ofinvestigation,” President Saakashvili told BBC.“We called for the international investigation intoconduct of this war, in the conditions leading to thiswar, into circumstances leading to this invasion.”“When you are talking about indiscriminate use offire, we have clear-cut evidence that town ofTskhinvali was shelled from dozens and maybehundred [of times] – but dozens we can prove atthis moment with video footage as well asdocumentary evidence from the Russian army andfrom the Russian journalists indeed – by the Russiantroops for several days.”“There were certainly war crimes committed,certainly not by us and certainly we wantinvestigation of those war crimes; we demand thatthat people who are responsible for those war crimesare brought to international justice,” Saakashviliadded. British Foreign Secretary David Milibandtold BBC that during his visit to Georgia he hadraised “the questions that have been asked andraised about war crimes and other military actionsby the Georgian authorities… We have acted in thiswithout fear, without favour.” “I think theGeorgian action was reckless, I think the Russian

Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 29 October 2008 27response was disproportionate and wrong… It'simportant that the Russian narrative cannot startwith Georgian actions; it has to start with theattacks on the Georgians from the South Ossetiansand that is the tit-for-tat that got out of control.And that is the series of events that have landed uswhere we are.” BBC also reported that houses burntin ethnic Georgian villages in the breakaway region“are now expected to be replaced by a brand-newhousing complex with a cinema and sports facilitiesto be financed by the city of Moscow.” (CivilGeorgia)MEDVEDEV: RE-ARMING OF‘SAAKASHVILI REGIME’ UNDERWAY29 OctoberRussian President Dmitry Medvedev said onOctober 28 that plans were underway to re-arm "theSaakashvili regime." “We will continue supplyingweapons and equipment exclusively for the purposeof maintaining the defense capabilities of ourpartner [states],” Medvedev said at a meeting of theState Commission on Foreign Military Cooperationon October 28. “But as the August events havedemonstrated, not all members of the internationalcommunity abide by such an approach. We knowhow diligently a number of states delivered arms tothe Saakashvili regime, thus actively encouragingit in its aggression. Now, plans are underway to rearmthis regime.” “Unfortunately, a number ofstates close to us also participated in this. We willnot forget this and we will certainly take this intoconsideration in our practical policies. I would likeeverybody to bear this in mind.” (Civil Georgia)