Population of Bristol September 2014

The Population of BristolSeptember 2014

The Population of BristolSeptember 2014Key population trends in the Bristol Local Authority area• There has been a period of unprecedented population growth in Bristol over the lastdecade. This followed a period of population decline in the post war years and aperiod of stabilisation in the 1990s. Population growth has been particularlyconcentrated in central areas of Bristol.• Since 2003 the population of Bristol Local Authority is estimated to have increasedby 46,000 people (11.8%), this compares to an England and Wales increase of 7.7%over the same period.• The large increase in the population of Bristol between 2003 and 2013 can beattributed to a number of factors including a significant increase in net-internationalmigration, a significant increase births and a decrease in the number of deaths. Netinternational migration has however reduced in recent years and increasing births isnow the main driver of population growth.• The increasing number of births is partly the result of rising fertility levels andincreases in the number of women of child-bearing age. The decrease in deaths ispartly a result of falling mortality rates.• International in-migration peaked in 2004/5, the result of the Accession countriesjoining the European Union in 2004.• The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some localcommunities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by peopleliving in Bristol.• If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by95,700 people over the 25 year period (2012-2037) to reach a total population of528,200 by 2037. This is a projected increase of 22.1% which is higher than theprojection for England of 16.2%.• Between 2012 and 2037 all age groups are projected to increase. The projectionssuggest continuing increases in the number of children, young adults, people in their30s and older people.• By mid-2029 Bristol Local Authority is projected to include for the first time morethan half a million usual residents.1

1. Introduction1.1 The population of Bristol is estimated to be 437,500 people 1 . Bristol is the largestcity in the South West and one of the eight ‘Core Cities’ in England. Following a period ofpopulation decline in the post war years, the population stabilised in the 1990s andincreased substantially during the 2000s. If recent trends continue, Bristol’s populationwill for the first time include more than half a million usual residents by mid-2029.1.2 The 2011 Census shows that over the last decade Bristol has become increasinglydiverse. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ has increased from12% to 22% of the total population. The proportion of people living in Bristol who were notborn in the UK has increased from 8% to 15% of the total population. In Bristol, there arenow at least 45 religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 mainlanguages spoken by people living in Bristol.1.3 Estimating and projecting the population of Bristol and areas within Bristol isimportant as it underpins local government finance, strategic planning and the provision oflocal facilities and services. The particular requirements and characteristics of differentethnic and cultural groups also need to be identified.1.4 This report aims to build a picture of the population of Bristol now and in the future.The report brings together statistics on the current estimated population of Bristol, recenttrends in population, future projections and looks at the key characteristics of the peopleliving in Bristol. Bristol data in the report refers to the Bristol Local Authority area unlessotherwise stated.1 ONS 2013 Mid-Year Population Estimate3

Population by ward2.9 The latest population estimates by ward are for mid-2012. The estimates show thatthe total population varies significantly between wards. Figure 2 shows the total populationwithin each ward together with a breakdown by broad age group.2.10 The largest ward in Bristol is Lawrence Hill with an estimated usually residentpopulation of 19,700 people, the second largest ward is Cabot with 17,000 people and thethird largest ward is Ashley with 16,500 people. Lawrence Hill has more than twice as manyresidents as Stoke Bishop which is the smallest ward with 9,300 people.2.11 The age profile within each ward also varies significantly. The highest numbers ofchildren are found in the wards with high levels of social renting including Lawrence Hill(4,900 children), Filwood (3,300), Hillfields (3,200), Ashley (3,100) and Easton (3,100). Thesewards, with the exception of Filwood, also have relatively large Black and Minority Ethnic(BME) populations.2.12 The wards with the lowest numbers of children are all in areas in the inner west ofBristol including Clifton East (800), Cotham (1,100), Cabot (1,100) and Clifton (1,100). Thesewards have the highest proportions of people of working age (16-64 years), including a largenumber of students, as well as low proportions of people aged 65 and over.2.13 The highest numbers of people aged 65 and over are in Westbury-on-Trym (2,600),Stockwood (2,400) and Hengrove (2,400). More than a fifth of the total population in thesewards is aged 65 and over.7

3. Recent population trendsBristol trends3.1 Following a period of population decline in the post war years, the population ofBristol stabilised in the 1990s which was then followed by a period of unprecedentedpopulation growth through the 2000s. Since 2003 the total population of Bristol LocalAuthority is estimated to have increased by 46,000 people an increase of 11.8%, thiscompares to an England and Wales increase of 7.7% over the last decade. The growth inpopulation includes an additional 10,000 students living in Bristol during term time.3.2 High levels of population increase have also been experienced in other Core Cities,the highest percentage growth being in Manchester (17.8%) and Nottingham (12.8%) (seeTable 2).Table 2. Population estimates 2003-2013 West of England and Core CitiesSource: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.change midmid-2003mid-2013 2003-2013 % changeBath & NE Somerset 170,400 180,100 9,700 5.7Bristol 391,500 437,500 46,000 11.8North Somerset 191,300 206,100 14,800 7.7South Gloucestershire 249,200 269,100 19,900 8.0West of England 1,002,300 1,092,800 90,500 9.0Core CitiesBirmingham 996,400 1,092,300 96,000 9.6Leeds 717,600 761,500 43,900 6.1Liverpool 445,000 470,800 25,800 5.8Manchester 436,700 514,400 77,700 17.8Newcastle upon Tyne 266,900 286,800 20,000 7.5Nottingham 275,500 310,800 35,300 12.8Sheffield 515,300 560,100 44,700 8.7England and Wales 52,863,200 56,948,200 4,085,000 7.73.3 In Bristol, annual increases in population have been at unprecedented levels sincethe year 2002. Figure 3 illustrates annual population change in Bristol since 1951. Mostyears between 1951 and 1990 saw Bristol’s population decrease. Through the 1990s someyears saw an increase and some years a decrease in population. In the 2000s however,Bristol experienced significant annual population increases, particularly in 2004/5 when theA8 Accession countries joined the European Union.8

Figure 4. Bristol population change by five year age band 2003 to 2013Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.10,0008,0006,0008,2007,3009,2006,000Persons4,0002,0000-2,0003,100-1,000600-1001,3003,9002,9004002,600 3,200 -700-1,600 -1,200 1,900-4,0000-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+Age groupChildren3.5 Between 2003 and 2013 the number of children (aged 0-15) living in Bristol isestimated to have increased by 10,200 (14.2%). This increase has been amongst the 0-9year olds (an increase of 25%), and in particular among the 0-5 year olds with an increase ofmore than a thousand children in each single year of age. The growth in the number ofunder 5s in the last decade (36%) is one of the highest in the country (E&W 19%).The trends reflect the substantial increase in numbers of births in Bristol in recent years (seesection on Components of Population Change for more information).Working age3.6 The working age population in Bristol has increased by 34,200 people (13%) since2003 compared to an increase of 6.7% in England and Wales as a whole. The greatestincrease was in the 22-33 year olds which increased by 24.6% between 2003 and 2013. Thisage group alone accounted for 59% of the total increase in the working age population inBristol during this period. Many of these people are likely to be international migrants (seesection on Components of Population Change for more information).Older people3.7 The Bristol population continues to age gradually. The over 85 age group hasincreased by 1,900 people (26.3%) between 2003 and 2013 – males increased by 45% andfemales by 19%. In 2013, males account for 32% of all people aged 85 and over compared tojust 28% a decade ago. The faster improvement in male mortality is largely driven bychanges seen in tobacco smoking and advances in health treatments for circulatoryillnesses. Male occupations, over the period have also become less physical and safer 4 .Overall however, the number of older people aged 65 and over in Bristol has increased byjust 2.8% since 2003.4 ONS Statistical Bulletin - Annual Mid-year Population Estimates, 201310

Components of population change3.8 The estimated components of population change in Bristol are shown in Figure 5 andTable 4. These show that population growth in Bristol since 2001 has been generated byinternational in-migration, increasing numbers of births and decreasing numbers of deaths.There was a notable spike in international in-migration in 2004/5, the result of theAccession countries joining the European Union in 2004. In more recent years, naturalchange (births minus deaths) has contributed more than net migration to annual populationchange.Figure 5. Components of population change in Bristol 2001/2 to 2012/13Source: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.16,00014,00012,000Other changesInternal Migration NetBirthsInternational Migration NetDeathsPersons10,0008,0006,0004,0002,0008,8005,4004,1009001,9001,9001,500500 1,6001,100300 2003,3002,3001001,6004,600 4,900 5,200 5,400 5,400 5,800 6,200 6,100 6,400 6,600 6,900 6,6000-2,000-3,900 -3,900 -3,800 -3,700 -3,500 -3,500 -3,500 -3,500 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300 -3,400-4,000-6,000-1,900 -2,100 -1,800-600 -500-700-100 -500-800 -800-2,400-600-1,000-700-100-500 -500 -400-8,0002001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13YearTable 4. Components of population change in Bristol 2001/2 to 2012/13Source: ONS Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates. Crown Copyright.2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13Births 4,600 4,900 5,200 5,400 5,400 5,800 6,200 6,100 6,400 6,600 6,900 6,600Deaths 3,900 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,400Natural Change 700 1,000 1,300 1,700 1,900 2,300 2,700 2,600 3,100 3,300 3,600 3,200InternalMigration InInternalMigration OutInternalMigration NetInternationalMigration InInternationalMigration OutInternationalMigration Net21,800 22,900 23,400 24,300 25,300 24,800 24,700 25,700 25,400 25,200 27,300 26,90023,800 25,000 25,200 24,500 25,700 27,200 25,700 24,600 25,500 24,900 27,100 26,700-1,900 -2,100 -1,800 -100 -500 -2,400 -1,000 1,100 -100 300 200 1005,000 7,200 8,800 11,600 6,200 6,400 6,500 5,100 5,100 5,900 5,100 5,8003,500 3,900 3,400 2,800 3,900 2,300 4,500 4,200 3,600 4,000 4,600 4,2001,600 3,300 5,400 8,800 2,300 4,100 1,900 900 1,500 1,900 500 1,600Other changes -600 -500 -700 -800 -800 -600 -700 -500 -500 -400 0 0Migration &Other changes-1,000 700 3,000 7,900 1,100 1,200 300 1,600 1,000 1,800 800 1,80011

per annum in 2011/12, then, following the national trend, a fall to 6,600 births per annum in2012/13. Overall, the Total Fertility Rate in Bristol in 2013 was 1.81 children per woman,slightly lower than the England and Wales average of 1.85.Figure 7. Live births by mother's country of birth Bristol 2002-12Source: ONS Annual District Birth data8,0007,0006,000Number of births5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000-2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Births to UK born mothers Births to non-UK born mothers Total births3.14 Changes in total fertility rate are driven mainly by women born in the UK as theymake up the majority of the population of childbearing age (see Figure 7). However, non-UKborn women made up an increasing share of the population, which also acted to pushfertility rates upwards between 2002 and 2012. The percentage of births in Bristol to foreignborn-mothers has increased from 16% in 2002 to 28% in 2012. In 2012, the Total FertilityRate for non-UK born women in England and Wales was estimated to be 2.29 children perwoman, compared to 1.90 for women born in the UK.3.15 Statistics are also available on the country of birth of the mother. Figure 8 showstrends in numbers of live births since 1995 in Bristol of the top five countries not includingUK born mothers.3.16 Since 2000, the number of births to Somalia-born mothers has increasedsubstantially, although has remained fairly constant since 2006. In 2012, out of a total of6,781 live births in Bristol, 305 (4.5%) were to a Somalia-born mother. The increase in thenumber of births to Polish-born mothers is also a relatively new phenomenon (since theexpansion of the EU in 2004) and accounted for 262 (3.9%) births in Bristol in 2012. Thenext highest numbers of births were to Pakistani-born mothers (134) and India-bornmothers (101). All other mothers born outside of the UK had less than 50 births per country.Migration3.17 Since 2003, the population of Bristol has increased by 20,300 people due to netmigration and other changes, accounting for 44% of all population change in Bristolbetween 2003 and 2013. During the 1990s net migration resulted in the loss of residentsfrom Bristol. This trend turned around from 2002/03 when net migration resulted in morepeople coming into Bristol than leaving.13

Figure 8. Number of live births to non-UK born mothersFive most common countries of birth of mother - Bristol 1995-2012Source: ONS Annual District Birth dataNumber of births400350300250200150100SomaliaPolandPakistanIndiaGermany5001995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Year3.18 Net international migration in Bristol increased substantially in the early part of thedecade with a notable spike in international in-migration between 2004 and 2005, the resultof the Accession countries joining the European Union in 2004. Since 2005/6 however, netinternational migration has reduced due to both a decrease in in-migration as well as anincrease in out-migration.3.19 Net internal migration 5 has resulted in an overall loss of 4,100 people from Bristolbetween 2003 and 2013. However, since 2008/09 more people have been moving intoBristol from other parts of the country than leaving.3.20 It is important to note that the numbers of people moving in and out of Bristol toother parts of the UK (population flows) are much larger than the numbers of internationalmigrants. For example, in the 12 months to mid-2013 26,900 people moved into Bristolfrom other areas of UK whilst 26,700 moved out of Bristol to other areas of UK. In contrast,5,800 people moved into Bristol from outside the UK and 4,200 people moved out of Bristolto go abroad.3.21 Estimates of migration are subject to higher levels of uncertainty than numbers ofbirths and deaths. In particular, estimates of international migration rely, to a substantialextent, on the International Passenger Survey3.22 To summarise: the large increase in the population of Bristol between 2003 and2013 can be attributed to a number of factors including a significant increase in netinternationalmigration, a significant increase births and a decrease in the number ofdeaths. Net international migration has however reduced in recent years and increasingbirths is now the main driver of population growth.5 Internal migration includes migration within England & Wales, plus cross-border migration flows to and fromScotland and Northern Ireland.14

Small area population trends3.22 The Office for National Statistics publish annual population estimates for small areasincluding wards and Lower Layer Super Output Areas 6 (LSOAs). Figure 9 and Table 5 showpopulation change between 2001 and 2012 by ward. The areas of highest populationgrowth have been in central areas of Bristol.3.23 Whilst there have been significant estimated increases in population across manywards in Bristol between 2002 and 2012, there has been exceptional increases in the centralarea of Bristol, in particular in Cabot +6,600 (62.8%) people and Lawrence Hill +6,400(47.9%). In fact, over the decade, almost a third (30%) of the total increase in population inBristol took place in Cabot and Lawrence Hill wards alone.3.24 Other wards which have experienced an increase in population of 2,000 or moresince 2002 are Ashley 2,900 (21.1%), Southville 2,300 (22.1%) and Bedminster 2,000(19.1%). At the same time there has been a decrease in the population of Kingsweston,Stoke Bishop and Stockwood and no change in Henleaze and Hartcliffe.3.25 The characteristics of population change vary from ward to ward across Bristol.Figure 10 illustrates what the most likely generators of population change at a ward levelhave been over the past decade. The births and deaths data are shown along with anestimate of migration and other changes which have been calculated by subtracting naturalchange from overall population change. This analysis shows that whilst there has beensignificant levels of births across many wards over the decade, the population of a numberof wards, notably Cabot and Lawrence Hill, appears to been subject to large increases in netmigration.Figure 10. Estimated indicators of population change 2002 to 2012 by wardSource: Strategic Planning based on ONS Small Area Population Estimates Crown Copyright8,0006,0004,000Estimated migration and other changes 2003-12Deaths 2003-12Births 2003-12Persons2,0000-2,000-4,000Ward6 Lower Layer Super Output Areas form a geographic hierarchy designed to improve the reporting of small areastatistics in England and Wales. They have a population of between 1,000 and 3,000 persons and are designedto have social homogeneity.15

Figure 9. Population change 2002 to 2012 by wardSource: ONS Small Area Population Estimates Crown Copyright16

3.26 Cabot and Lawrence Hill are examples of the differences in the characteristics ofpopulation change between wards. Analysis of changes in age structure between 2002 and2012 show that population growth in Cabot was focused in the early 20s age group, mainlythought to be students. Data on housing development indicates that there has been a largeincrease in student accommodation in the city centre.3.27 In contrast, Lawrence Hill ward showed population growth particularly in childrenand young adults. The large increase in international migration over the decade hascontributed to the increase in population in Lawrence Hill ward. The majority of newmigrants to Bristol live in the inner city areas of Bristol which are characterised by a highproportion of BME residents, a high proportion of rented accommodation, a high proportionof non-family households and higher than average levels of unemployment.18

4. Population projectionsPopulation projections4.1 If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by95,700 people over the 25 year period (2012-2037) to reach a total population of 528,200by 2037 7 . This is a projected increase of 22.1% which is higher than the projection forEngland of 16.2%. The long term trend for Bristol is shown in Figure 11.4.2 By mid-2029 Bristol Local Authority will for the first time include more than half amillion usual residents.Figure 11. Population trend 1981 to 2037Source: Mid-Year Estimates and 2012-based Sub-national Population Projections ONS600,000500,000400,000Population300,000200,000ONS Mid year population estimatesONS 2012-based population projections100,00001951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036Year4.3 Figure 12 shows levels of annual population change between 2001 and 2012together with projected levels of annual population change up to 2037. The decade from2001 to 2011 was a period of unprecedented population growth in Bristol and the 2012-based population projections project forward these recent trends.4.4 Population projections are usually published every two years by the Office forNational Statistics (ONS). Sub-national population projections provide estimates of thefuture population of English regions, local authorities and primary care organisations,assuming a continuation of recent local trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Theprojections do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies,7 ONS 2012-based Sub-national Population Projections19

changing economic circumstances, local development policy, the capacity of an area toaccommodate population or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.Figure 12. Annual population change 2001-2037Source: Mid-Year Estimates and 2012-based Sub-national Population Projections ONS10,0008,0009,700Population Estimates2012-based Population Projections6,000Persons4,0002,0004,200-3003,0003,5002,9004,2004,0001,8005,1004,4004,3004,5004,5004,7004,4004,3004,0003,8003,7003,7003,7003,8003,8003,9003,8003,7003,7003,6003,6003,5003,4003,3003,4003,3003,3000-2,0002001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-222022-232023-242024-252025-262026-272027-282028-292029-302030-312031-322032-332033-342034-352035-362036-37YearPopulation projections by age4.5 Future changes in specific age groups have direct implications for policy making andplanning, it is therefore important to understand the projected changes to the age structureof the area. In Bristol, between 2012 and 2037 all age bands are projected to increase.Table 6 shows the projected change in population by broad age band. Figure 13 shows howthe age structure is projected to change each decade from 2013 to 2023 and 2033.Table 6. Population Projections by broad age band 2012-2037Source: 2012-based Sub-national Population Projections, ONSChange 2012-37Age group 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 number %0-15 80,700 86,700 93,100 95,900 97,200 98,100 17,400 21.616-24 66,800 67,900 66,200 71,500 77,400 79,100 12,300 18.425-49 163,900 171,500 178,600 183,200 186,000 191,800 27,900 17.050-64 63,900 67,900 71,200 71,400 71,700 74,000 10,200 15.965-74 29,100 32,300 33,100 34,900 38,900 40,300 11,200 38.575 & over 28,100 28,600 32,200 36,600 40,300 44,800 16,700 59.4All ages 432,500 454,900 474,400 493,400 511,500 528,200 95,700 22.120

Figure 13. Change in Population Projections by age 2013 and 2033Source: 2012-based Sub-national Population Projections, ONS12,0002013-2033 change10,00020132033 projection8,000Population6,0004,0002,00000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80AgeChildren4.6 The number of children in Bristol is projected to continue to grow, with a projectedincrease of 17,400 children (0-15 year olds) between 2012 and 2037, an increase of 21.6%.Within this age group, the number of 6-15 year olds are projected to increase the most.Children as a proportion of the total population is likely to remain the same at around 19%of all people living in Bristol, this is in spite of the increased number of children living inBristol.Working age4.7 There is projected to be an increase in the number of working age people (aged 16-64) living in Bristol between 2012 and 2037, with an increase of 50,400 by 2037, an increaseof 17%. Within this age group, the number of 16-20 year olds and 34-42 year olds areprojected to increase the most. The working age population as a proportion of the totalpopulation is likely to stay the same at around two thirds of the total population.Older people4.8 By 2037 there is projected to be 85,100 people aged 65 and over living in Bristol. Intotal there is projected to be an additional 27,900 older people living in Bristol (2012-2037),an increase of 49%. Older people as a proportion of the total population is likely to increasefrom 13% to 16% of all people living in the city.4.9 Interactive population pyramids 8 are available for viewing the results of the 2012-based population projections for local authorities, regions and England. They can be used toillustrate how the size and age and sex structure of the population in an area is projected tochange over time, as well as enabling comparison with other areas.8 If this link does not work you may need to use a more recent version of Internet Explorer or alternativelyFirefox21

Projected components of population change4.10 The projected components of population change, shown in Figure 14, illustratecontinuing high levels of births in Bristol, low levels of net international migration relative tothe last decade, gains from which will be offset by more people leaving Bristol to live inother parts of the UK than moving to Bristol from other parts of the UK.Births and deaths4.11 Births are projected to continue to significantly contribute to population change inBristol in future. The number of births is expected to reach 7,400 per annum by 2037 (upfrom 6,600 per annum in 2012/13), whilst the numbers of deaths is expected to remainsteady at 3,300 per annum by 2037. As a result, all of the 22.1% population increase inBristol up to 2037 is likely to be due to natural change (i.e. more births than deaths) ratherthan migration (Figure 14).4.12 One reason for the high level of natural change is because Bristol has a relativelyyoung age structure. Nearly a half (47%) of the population in mid-2012 were estimated tobe aged between 16 and 44 years, the main childbearing ages, compared to the Englandaverage of 39%. This age structure results in high numbers of births and low numbers ofdeaths compared with other local authorities of a similar size but with older age structures.Figure 14. Projected components of population change for Bristol 2012-2037Source: 2012-based Sub-national Population Projections, ONS10,0008,0006,000900 900200 0International migration net Internal and cross border migration net Deaths Births900 1,100 1,000 1,000 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 9004,0006,600 6,700 6,900 6,900 7,000 7,000 7,100 7,100 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,200 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,300 7,400 7,400Persons2,0000-2,000-3,400 -3,100 -3,100 -3,100 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,000 -3,100 -3,100 -3,100 -3,100 -3,200 -3,200 -3,300 -3,300 -3,300-4,000-100 -300-500 -700 -900 -1,200 -1,400 -1,400 -1,400 -1,400 -1,300 -1,300 -1,300 -1,300 -1,400 -1,400 -1,400 -1,500 -1,600 -1,600 -1,600 -1,600 -1,700-6,000YearMigration4.13 Overall, change due to net migration is projected to further decrease in future. Therewill be a limited increase in the population of Bristol due to net migration up to 2017/18 butfrom 2018/19 net migration is projected to result in more people moving out of Bristol tolive elsewhere than moving in.22

4.14 Looking at the different elements of migration, the projections show that thenumbers of international migrants moving in and out of the city is likely to remain relativelylow compared to the last decade. There is projected to be around 4,900 international inmigrantsannually together with around 4,000 out-migrants, resulting in a populationincrease of around 900 people per year.4.15 Internal migration and cross border (i.e. moves to and from other parts of the UK)result in large flows of migrants into and out of the city each year but result in small overallchanges to the population numbers. There is projected to be around 26,700 peoplemigrating in from other parts of the UK and 27,700 people migrating out of Bristol to otherparts of the UK each year. Many of these will be students. From 2014/15 onwards, morepeople are likely to leave Bristol to live in other parts of the UK than people moving in fromother parts of the UK (Figure 14).23

5. Population characteristicsA changing population profile5.1 As outlined in earlier sections of this report, since 2001 there has been a largeincrease in the total number of people living in Bristol which has resulted in a changingpopulation profile. The proportion of the population who are not ‘White British’ hasincreased from 12% to 22% of the total population. In Bristol, there are now at least 45religions, at least 50 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spokenby people living in Bristol.5.2 Although all parts of the city have experienced changes in the people living in theirarea since 2001, in terms of changes to population characteristics these have beenconcentrated in the inner city and inner east areas of the city, in particular in the wards ofLawrence Hill, Ashley, Easton and Eastville. Cabot has also experienced a large growth inpopulation but this is mainly attributable to a large increase in the number of students since2001, in particular international students.5.3 The remainder of this section will map the main characteristics of Bristol’spopulation (excluding age which has been covered earlier) using the 2011 Census resultsand look at how these characteristics have changed since 2001. The following characteristicsare included:• Ethnic group• Country of birth• Migrants• Religion• Language• StudentsEthnic group5.4 The Black or Minority Ethnic group (BME) population (all groups with the exceptionof all the White groups) make up 16% of the total population in Bristol. This is an increasefrom 8.2% of all people in 2001.5.5 An alternative definition of the population that can be used is the non-‘White British’population (all groups with the exception of White British) which includes the EasternEuropean population. The non-‘White British’ population make up 22% of the totalpopulation in Bristol - this is an increase from 12% of all people in 2001.24

Figure 15. Population by ethnic groupSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]African 12,085Black Other6,922Pakistani6,863 Caribbean6,727Indian 6,547Other Asian4,255White British333,432Non-'White British'94,802Mixed, 15,438Other White 21,950Chinese 3,886Irish 3,851Any otherethnicgroup2,543Bangladeshi2,104Arab 1,272Gypsy or IrishTraveller 359Somali population estimateThe Somali population are not identified as a separate ethnic group in the 2011 Census butare included in both the Black African and Black Other groups, depending on which tick boxpeople chose on the Census questionnaire.The best estimate we can make of the number of Somalis living in Bristol is to take thenumber of Black Africans and Black Others who identified themselves as Muslims and toinclude only those born in Somalia (4,300), the UK (3,100) and other parts of Europe (900).This gives us a Somali population estimate of 8,300.Local knowledge suggests that it is likely that some Somalis, in particular men living ininformal accommodation, may have been under estimated by the 2011 Census. Taking thisinto consideration, the likely number of Somalis living in Bristol in 2011 could be around10,000.National Insurance Registrations to Overseas Nationals (NINos) can be used to supplement2011 Census statistics and ONS migration trends. Since 2002, of all Local Authorities in theUK, Bristol had the second highest number of Somali nationals registering for NationalInsurance. In total 2,400 Somalis registered to work in Bristol. Only Birmingham had a highernumber with 2,750 registrations. The number of Somalis registering for NINos in Bristol hasdeclined sharply since 2002, with only 66 registrations in total in Bristol in 2013/14.25

5.6 The age profile of the BME population is much younger than the age profile of theBristol population as a whole. The proportion of children (aged 0-15) who belong to a BMEgroup is 28%, the proportion of people of working age (aged 16-64) who belong to a BMEgroup is 15% and the proportion of older people (aged 65 and over) who belong to a BMEgroup is just 5%.5.7 Table 7 shows how different ethnic groups have changed since 2001. The largestincreases by ethnic group since 2001 have been in Other White, Black African, Black Otherand Multiple/mixed ethnic groups. These changes reflect the large growth in the Somali andthe Polish populations in Bristol, as well as an increase in international students and theincreasingly mixed child population. The Somali population estimate text box has moreinformation about the number of Somalis living in Bristol.Table 7. Population by ethnic group 2001 and 2011Source: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]Note: the 2001 Census undercounts the population in Bristol by around 10,0002001 Census 2011 CensusEthnic group number % number %White British 335,085 88.0 333,432 77.9White Irish 4,321 1.1 3,851 0.9White Gypsy or Irish Traveller n/a n/a 359 0.1White Other 10,124 2.7 21,950 5.1Mixed ethnic group 7,934 2.1 15,438 3.6Indian 4,595 1.2 6,547 1.5Pakistani 4,050 1.1 6,863 1.6Bangladeshi 1,230 0.3 2,104 0.5Chinese 2,149 0.6 3,886 0.9Other Asian 984 0.3 4,255 1.0Black African 2,310 0.6 12,085 2.8Black Caribbean 5,585 1.5 6,727 1.6Black Other 936 0.2 6,922 1.6Arab n/a n/a 1,272 0.3Any other ethnic group 1,312 0.3 2,543 0.6Total White 349,530 91.8 359,592 84.0Total BME 31,085 8.2 68,642 16.0All people 380,615 100.0 428,234 100.0Total non-‘White British’ 45,530 12.0 94,802 22.15.8 The BME population varies significantly across the city - in Lawrence Hill ward 55% ofall people belong to a BME group compared to 4% in Whitchurch Park. This difference isemphasised even more when looking at areas smaller than wards (see Figure 16) – in ‘StPauls Grosvenor Road’ 80% of all people belong to a BME group whilst just 1.4% are BME in‘The Coots’ in Stockwood.5.9 Since 2001, the distribution of the BME population of Bristol has changedconsiderably (Figure 17). Whilst in 2001 the BME population largely lived in the inner citywards of Ashley, Easton, Lawrence Hill and Eastville, with all other wards having a BMEpopulation of below 14%, in 2011 the distribution of the BME population had extended outto the north east of the city. Now wards with a BME population of above 14% include26

Lawrence Hill, Easton, Ashley, Eastville, Lockleaze, Cabot, Hillfields, St George West, FromeVale, Horfield and Southmead.Figure 16. 2011 Black and minority ethnic populationSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]27

Figure 17. Population distribution of Black and minority ethnic residents 2001 to 2011Source: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]Country of birth5.10 In 2011, 15% people living in Bristol were born outside the UK, this is an increasesince 2001 when the proportion of people born outside the UK was 8%. Of the 15% bornoutside the UK, 19,686 (4.6%) were born in other EU countries (including 10,520 inAccession countries) and 40,540 (9.5%) were born in countries outside of the EU.Figure 18. Ten most popular countries of birth of Bristol residentsSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]PolandSomaliaIndiaJamaicaOther EU accession countriesIrelandPakistanOther EU member countries (March 2001)Germany3,8093,2793,0252,9002,7702,4782,3294,9476,41528

5.11 There are at least 50 countries represented in Bristol. Figure 17 lists the ten mostpopular countries of birth of Bristol residents. On Census Day, Poland was the most popularcountry of birth with 6,415 Polish-born residents, followed by 4,947 people who were bornin Somalia – the latter is the 4th highest number of Somali-born of all local authorities afterBirmingham (7,765), Brent (6,855) and Ealing (6,468).5.12 Lawrence Hill ward has the highest proportion of people not born in the UK at 37%of the total population. Cabot ward has the second highest proportion of people not born inthe UK making up 30.5% of all residents in the ward. Many of these are students.Migrants5.13 For the first time in 2011, the Census asked a series of questions about migration,including questions about when people migrated to the UK and what age they were whenthey arrived.Figure 19. Year of arrival in the UKSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]45,00040,00035,000Number of people30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00001941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2011Year of arrival in UKYear of arrival in UKBorn in the UK 365,108 Arrived 1981-1990 4,021Arrived before 1941 301 Arrived 1991-2000 8,885Arrived 1941-1950 952 Arrived 2001-2003 7,947Arrived 1951-1960 2,594 Arrived 2004-2006 12,183Arrived 1961-1970 4,274 Arrived 2007-2009 12,207Arrived 1971-1980 3,451 Arrived 2010-2011 6,31129

Figure 20. New migrantsSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]30

5.14 Figure 19 shows the year of arrival of people living in Bristol who were born outsideof the UK. Of the people living in Bristol not born in the UK, the majority (60%) have beenresident in the UK for less than 10 years. The greatest number of migrants arrived betweenthe years 2004 and 2009, when more than 24,000 people came to live in Bristol fromoutside of the UK. Of the people not born in the UK, 69% arrived in the UK when they wereof working age and 30% arrived as children.5.15 Figure 20 shows where recent migrants now live in Bristol. New migrants tend to livein inner city areas of Bristol in particular in Cabot and Lawrence Hill wards.Religion5.16 There are at least 45 religions represented in Bristol. However, Bristol is ranked 7thin England and Wales for the proportion of people stating that they have no religion - 37%of the population state they have no religion, up from 25% in 2001.5.17 The largest religion in Bristol is Christian (47%), although following national trendsthe proportion of people stating that they are Christian has fallen from 62% in 2001. Since2001 the religion with the biggest increase in Bristol has been Islam which increased from2% of all people in Bristol in 2001 to 5% of all people in 2011.Figure 21. ReligionSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]Religion notstated8.1%No religion37.4%Christian46.8%Other religion0.7% Sikh0.5%Muslim5.1%Jewish0.2%Hindu0.6%Buddhist0.6%31

Language5.18 For the first time in 2011, the Census asked a question about main language spokenand proficiency in English. This found that there are at least 91 main languages spoken inBristol.5.19 The main languages spoken other than English are illustrated in Figure 22 wherebythe size of the text represents the number of people who speak that language as their mainlanguage. English is the main language spoken in Bristol followed by Polish and Somali.Overall 9% of people do not speak English as their main language.Figure 22. Illustration of numbers of speakers by main language not including EnglishspeakersSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]Figure 23. Proficiency in English of People whose main language is not EnglishSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]% of people aged 3 and over4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.03.7Can speak Englishvery well3.4Can speak Englishwell1.3Cannot speakEnglish well0.2Cannot speakEnglish32

5.20 Proficiency in English is categorised into people who can speak English very well,those who can speak English well, those who cannot speak English well and those whocannot speak English. Overall in Bristol 1.5% of people cannot speak English or cannot speakEnglish very well (see Figure 23).5.21 Interestingly, although there is a high proportion of people whose main language isnot English living in Cabot ward (19.3%), there is a very low proportion of those who do notspeak English or do not speak it well (1.5%). This reflects the high proportion of foreignstudents living in the ward who speak English well.Students5.22 The number of full time students aged 18 and over living in Bristol during term timehas increased by just over 10,000 from 25,573 to 35,638. Students now make up 8.3% of thetotal population of Bristol.5.23 In Bristol, students tend to be concentrated in particular areas of the city includingCabot, Clifton East, Cotham and Clifton with concentrations also in Stoke Bishop (Universityof Bristol student accommodation) and Fishponds (University of the West of Englandaccommodation) (see Figure 24).5.24 Students make up more than half of residents in four Lower Layer Super OutputAreas - Woodland Road, St James Barton and University in Cabot ward and University Hallsin Stoke Bishop.2011 Census topicsThe 2011 Census covers a wide range of topics in addition to those about the characteristicsof the population. Other topics covered include:• living arrangements• marital status• general health• disability• qualifications• economic activity• hours worked• socio-economic classification• industry• occupation• mode of travel to work• accommodation type (i.e.houses/flats)• tenure• household size and overcrowding• car availability• type of central heating• family composition• commuting patternsMore data about Bristol is available from the useful links at the end of this report includingsummary tables, topic reports and area profiles.33

Figure 24. Full time students aged 18 and over living in Bristol during term timeSource: Office for National Statistics © Crown Copyright 2013 [from Nomis]34

6. Other sources of population statistics6.1 There are a number of alternative sources of evidence that can be used tosupplement estimates from the Office for National Statistics. These include administrativesources such as National Insurance records. Although not able to give definitive counts ofthe number of people in particular groups, other sources can be used to substantiate ONSpopulation estimates and often to provide pointers towards the most recent demographictrends.National Insurance Number Registrations (NINos)6.2 National Insurance number allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK(NINos) are produced by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). The DWP NINo datacovers people allocated a NINo for all types of work – including the self-employed andstudents working part-time – and whatever the length of stay in the UK. It also covers adultoverseas nationals allocated a NINo to claim benefits or tax credits.6.3 The DWP NINo data does not show when overseas nationals subsequently departthe UK, nor does it show length of stay in the UK. The DWP figures are therefore a measureof inflow of overseas nationals registering for a NINo. For this reason, the figures do notshow the number of foreign nationals working or claiming benefit at any given point nor dothey distinguish between long and short-term migrants.Figure 25. Total National Insurance Registrations in Bristol for non-UK Nationals 2002/3-2013/14Source: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions http://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/Total number of NI registrations8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00003,200 3,400 3,9005,4007,2006,4005,6004,2005,700 5,700 5,800 6,40035

6.4 The NINo definition of a migrant differs from other published statistics in the area,such as International Migration statistics derived from the International Passenger Survey(IPS), and statistics on foreign workers derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Thevarious definitions of migrants mean the data sources may have different numbers ofmigrants for the same time period.6.5 Figure 25 shows that the total number of National Insurance registrations in Bristolreached a peak in 2006/7 following the expansion of the EU in 2004. Following this, thenumber of registrations in Bristol fell considerably up to 2010/11 before increasing onceagain to on average 5,700 registrations per annum. In 2014/14 registrations again increasedslightly when there were 6,400 registrations in total, an increase of 600 on the previousyear.6.6 The recent increase in numbers is mainly attributable to an increase in the numberof Spanish nationals registering for NI in Bristol, together with a steady rise once again in thenumber of Polish nationals. Figure 26 shows the top five countries based on the number ofNI registrations in 2013/14.Figure 26. National Insurance Registrations for non-UK Nationals in BristolTop five countries based on number of registrations in 2013/14Source: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions http://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/3,000Number of NI registrations2,5002,0001,5001,000SpainPoland (Joined EU in 2004)ItalyRomania (Joined EU in 2007)France50002002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/146.7 In Bristol between January 2002 and March 2014, a total of 63,300 NationalInsurance numbers were issued to non-UK nationals. By far the largest proportion of these –12,000 ie 19% of all allocations - were issued to Polish nationals. Other countries with morethan 2,000 allocations over this time period include: Spain 5,600 (9%), India 3,800 (6%),France 2,800 (4%), Somalia 2,500 (4%) and Italy 2,300 (4%). Figure 27 shows those countrieswith more than 1,000 National Insurance numbers issued in total since January 2002.Overall, people registering for a NI number in Bristol come from more than 100 differentcountries.36

Figure 27. National Insurance Registrations for non-UK Nationals by Nationality in BristolCountries with more than 1,000 total registrations onlySource: Stat-Xplore, Department for Work and Pensions http://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/PortugalRep of IrelandRomania (Joined EU in 2007)Rep of Lithuania (Joined EU in 2004)NetherlandsGermanySlovak Rep (Joined EU in 2004)AustraliaPakistanHungary (Joined EU in 2004)China Peoples RepItalySomaliaFranceIndia1,0811,1411,1551,1881,1961,4431,6501,6671,7551,7891,8612,2572,4762,8123,800Spain5,601Poland (Joined EU in 2004)12,0060 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000Total number of registrations Jan 2002 to March 20146.8 A number of caveats should be borne in mind when assessing these figures. Inparticular, they only specify those arriving, not those leaving. Other issues to consider arethe fact that some workers may well have been here before accession to the EU but wereable to register legally thereafter; some people get NI numbers elsewhere in the UK butmove here; and, finally, some people will be working in the area without NI numbers.37

7. Policy implications of population change7.1 Understanding the size and characteristics of the population and how it is changing isimportant to our understanding of society and the economy. Population estimates andprojections are used for planning, resource allocation, business decisions and a broad rangeof public policy purposes. They provide key contextual information for research and analysisand in calculating rates for key demographic measures, performance targets and economicindicators such as employment rates.7.2 Below are some policy implications of the changing population of Bristol:• The increase in population has service delivery implications. Concentration of thisgrowth on particular population groups in certain areas of the city, such as Somalis inLawrence Hill, Ashley and Easton, will have localised implications on the delivery ofthese services.• New communities bring both advantages and new challenges around cohesion andintegration. The Community Cohesion Strategy sets out how we will foster goodrelations between equalities communities and the wider community.• Increasing numbers of new dwellings to accommodate additional households is likelyto have an impact on a wide range of environmental, social and economic issues.• The rise in Bristol’s birth rate will have implications for health and educationprovision in the city. The projected growth in the school age population hassignificant implications for education provision.• Large numbers of young people move into and out of the city each year. Provision ofstudent and key worker accommodation can help successfully accommodate futureincreases in student numbers without adding to demand on the private housingstock. Over concentrations of people living in multi-occupied households, includingstudents, can lead to particular localised amenity issues. The student population hasseasonal impacts throughout the year and also provide a considerable support tolocal economies.• Bristol has an ageing population, although the future changes in the age structure ofthe population are not as acute as other local authorities in the South West. Anageing population will have implications for primary and secondary health careservices and social care provision. A range of health issues, including disabilities andlimiting long-term illnesses, may be more prevalent in a more elderly population.• Population growth in Bristol and the wider sub-region can help support a growingeconomy through increasing demand for goods and services and moderate theimpacts of an ageing labour supply. The relative economic growth of Bristol togetherwith new housing provision will, to some extent, generate additional migration intothe area. However a range of other factors will influence migration patterns bothinto and out of the area, including education, retirement, lifestyle, etc.38

8. Conclusion8.1 The last decade was a period of unprecedented population growth in Bristol, withgrowth particularly concentrated in central areas of Bristol.8.2 The large increase in the population of Bristol between 2003 and 2013 can beattributed to a number of factors including a significant increase in net-internationalmigration, a significant increase births and a decrease in the number of deaths. Netinternational migration has however reduced in recent years and increasing births is nowthe main driver of population growth.8.3 The population of Bristol has become increasingly diverse and some localcommunities have changed significantly. There are now at least 45 religions, at least 50countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken by people living inBristol.8.4 If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by95,700 people over the 25 year period (2012-2037) to reach a total population of 528,200by 2037. This is a projected increase of 22.1% which is higher than the projection forEngland of 16.2%. By mid-2029 Bristol Local Authority is projected to include more than halfa million usual residents.8.5 Between 2012 and 2037 all age bands are projected to increase. The projectionssuggest continuing increases in the number of children, young adults, people in their 30sand older people.39

Useful linksBristol City Council population pageshttp://www.bristol.gov.uk/populationBristol City Council census pages including 2011 Census Profiles for wards and other areasand more detailed Topic Reportshttp://www.bristol.gov.uk/censusOffice for National Statistics main population pages with further links to estimates,projections, quality reports and frequently asked questionshttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Population+EstimatesOffice for National Statistics migration statistics quarterly reporthttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/february-2012/msqr.htmlContactsJayne Mills, Performance, Information and IntelligenceE: jayne.mills@bristol.gov.ukT: 0117 90 36873Michael Legg, Strategic City PlanningE: michael.legg@bristol.gov.ukT: 0117 90 36872Bristol City CouncilSeptember 201440