MPO Policy and Procedures Manual - Indianapolis Metropolitan ...

MPO Policy and Procedures Manual - Indianapolis Metropolitan ... MPO Policy and Procedures Manual - Indianapolis Metropolitan ...

30.06.2015 Views

Data The primary data source for demographic data in the United States for over 60 years has been the U.S. Decennial Census of the Population. This Census, performed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census was last conducted in 2000 and contained two parts that year. The first part, called the Short Form, was a 100% sample that provided population, household and voting data. The Long Form, a sample of one in every six to eight households, provided detailed social, economic and demographic information. Because of the sample size of the Long Form, this detailed data set was available for small geographic areas. In 2003, the Census Bureau initiated a new, annual survey called the American Community Survey (ACS), to take the place of the detailed Long Form, beginning in 2010. The sample size of the ACS is approximately one in every thirty-two households. Valid statistics for small area statistics produced by the ACS are published as 5-year moving averages. The ACS began data collection in 2005-2006 and its first 5-year estimates are due in 2010-11. The MPO uses a special aggregation of Census data called the Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP), purchased on behalf of the transportation community by ASHTO (the American Association of State of Highway Transportation Officials). The CTPP is being modified to accommodate the change from the Census Long Form to the ACS. The MPO also uses demographic data prepared by Nielsen-Claritas. Economic data are garnered from a variety of sources. The MPO leases data from the D&B Selectory data base and has acquired data from both the Indiana Secretary of State’s Business Licensing data base and the Indiana Department of Workforce Development’s ES-202 data base. The MPO uses forecasts of economic and population values produced by both the State of Indiana and Woods and Poole. These data are largely used as county- or township- level control totals. These control totals are allocated to smaller geographic areas using a type of land-use allocation model. During 2008 and 2009, the MPO has conducted two significant travel data studies. The Central Indiana Travel Survey (CITS) and the IndyGo On-Board Survey. The CITS collected data for up to 4000 household upon its completion in December of 2009. The IndyGo On-Board Survey collected data on over 4000 bus riders. Data from these two surveys will be used extensively in updating the MPO’s travel demand model in 2010. Transportation network data are garnered from a variety of sources, including the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), different local engineering departments, and original data collection (both field and from aerial photography). Types of network data currently collected include traffic counts, centerline locations, lane widths, facility types, and posted speeds. During 2009, the MPO began full-time collection of traffic counts, finishing the third year of a three-year system traffic count cycle. Travel Demand Model Procedures The travel demand model is a tool for estimating network volumes (vehicles per hour) and speeds (miles per hour) thereby enabling the derivation of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and 52

vehicle hours of travel (VHT). The model area encompasses all portions of the nine-county region of Central Indiana, including the counties of Boone, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, Johnson, Madison, Marion, Morgan, and Shelby. The parameters of the travel model are estimated with information available from household surveys, the Census, and other sources. Estimated parameters are applied to population and employment estimates, resulting in regional trip totals broken out by trip type – work, school, shopping, etc. The model is calibrated such that the network flows match to measured vehicle counts at representative locations. The validation of the model ensures that the model provides results consistent with current thinking on traffic flows and speeds, trip choice, and modal choice. The travel model has many uses. First, it provides us with an assessment of the current state of the regional transportation network. Traffic counts and speed studies inform the model development, but in and of themselves are too geographically limited to provide a broad appraisal. Second, by varying the state of the network in terms of capacity, location or operations, we can assess the efficacy of various transportation policies. Third, by varying the population and employment inputs to match an expected future state, we can forecast the state of the traffic system, subject to the limitations of the population and employment forecasts. Finally, the travel model outputs can be “post-processed” to address a variety of policy questions (e.g., economic impacts or air quality benefits/costs). The model is based on theories and assumptions that are valid for regional travel movement. Subregional results, therefore, should be viewed with caution. The smaller the area, the greater the probability of forecasting error, particularly when queries focus on a specific network facility. For specific network facilities, if a traffic count is available, a time-correction of the traffic count is preferable to a model output for that facility. If a traffic count for the facility is not available, then a model output may be issued if caution in applicability is observed. Travel Model Requests and Procedures Community stakeholders may request that MPO staff run the model to test various scenarios. Generally, the MPO will try to accommodate these wishes, but requesters needs to be aware that significant staff and computer time is utilized in running the model, and that the MPO reserves the right to re-scope, or even reject requests based upon resource availability. This is staff time-intensive requesters should expect a turnaround time of no less than eight weeks. External Use of the Travel Model Consultants and other external parties are generally permitted to directly run the travel model, with the following caveats, which constitute requirements for use of the model. Any violation of these caveats may result in the suspension of the stakeholder’s permission to use the model: • The travel model is the property of the MPO. The MPO needs to be properly credited in any report; • Final model results for major investment studies, environmental impact statements; et cetera must be verified by the MPO. This verification requires the submittal of the networks and, if applicable, zones to the MPO for an independent run of the model. In its review and verification, the MPO reserves the right to alter any network or zonal coding 53

vehicle hours of travel (VHT). The model area encompasses all portions of the nine-county<br />

region of Central Indiana, including the counties of Boone, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks,<br />

Johnson, Madison, Marion, Morgan, <strong>and</strong> Shelby.<br />

The parameters of the travel model are estimated with information available from household<br />

surveys, the Census, <strong>and</strong> other sources. Estimated parameters are applied to population <strong>and</strong><br />

employment estimates, resulting in regional trip totals broken out by trip type – work, school,<br />

shopping, etc. The model is calibrated such that the network flows match to measured vehicle<br />

counts at representative locations. The validation of the model ensures that the model provides<br />

results consistent with current thinking on traffic flows <strong>and</strong> speeds, trip choice, <strong>and</strong> modal<br />

choice.<br />

The travel model has many uses. First, it provides us with an assessment of the current state of<br />

the regional transportation network. Traffic counts <strong>and</strong> speed studies inform the model<br />

development, but in <strong>and</strong> of themselves are too geographically limited to provide a broad<br />

appraisal. Second, by varying the state of the network in terms of capacity, location or<br />

operations, we can assess the efficacy of various transportation policies. Third, by varying the<br />

population <strong>and</strong> employment inputs to match an expected future state, we can forecast the state<br />

of the traffic system, subject to the limitations of the population <strong>and</strong> employment forecasts.<br />

Finally, the travel model outputs can be “post-processed” to address a variety of policy<br />

questions (e.g., economic impacts or air quality benefits/costs).<br />

The model is based on theories <strong>and</strong> assumptions that are valid for regional travel movement.<br />

Subregional results, therefore, should be viewed with caution. The smaller the area, the greater<br />

the probability of forecasting error, particularly when queries focus on a specific network facility.<br />

For specific network facilities, if a traffic count is available, a time-correction of the traffic count is<br />

preferable to a model output for that facility. If a traffic count for the facility is not available, then<br />

a model output may be issued if caution in applicability is observed.<br />

Travel Model Requests <strong>and</strong> <strong>Procedures</strong><br />

Community stakeholders may request that <strong>MPO</strong> staff run the model to test various scenarios.<br />

Generally, the <strong>MPO</strong> will try to accommodate these wishes, but requesters needs to be aware<br />

that significant staff <strong>and</strong> computer time is utilized in running the model, <strong>and</strong> that the <strong>MPO</strong><br />

reserves the right to re-scope, or even reject requests based upon resource availability. This is<br />

staff time-intensive requesters should expect a turnaround time of no less than eight weeks.<br />

External Use of the Travel Model<br />

Consultants <strong>and</strong> other external parties are generally permitted to directly run the travel model,<br />

with the following caveats, which constitute requirements for use of the model. Any violation of<br />

these caveats may result in the suspension of the stakeholder’s permission to use the model:<br />

• The travel model is the property of the <strong>MPO</strong>. The <strong>MPO</strong> needs to be properly credited in<br />

any report;<br />

• Final model results for major investment studies, environmental impact statements; et<br />

cetera must be verified by the <strong>MPO</strong>. This verification requires the submittal of the<br />

networks <strong>and</strong>, if applicable, zones to the <strong>MPO</strong> for an independent run of the model. In its<br />

review <strong>and</strong> verification, the <strong>MPO</strong> reserves the right to alter any network or zonal coding<br />

53

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