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Chapter 7 | The impact of the crisis on the health system and health in Lithuania 237 Table 7.7 Selected health indicators in Lithuania, 2002–2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Depression (incidence per 100,000) Addiction disorders (incidence per 100,000) Suicides (SDR per 100,000) Alcoholrelated deaths (SDR per 100,000) Transport accidents (SDR per 100,000) 69.5 65.6 64.1 54.7 52.0 45.2 48.0 53.6 64.3 n/a 79.8 72.9 76.6 95.3 89.4 101.2 93.0 72.7 67.6 74.8 44.7 42.1 40.2 38.6 30.9 30.4 33.1 34.1 31.0 31.6 29.0 32.2 32.0 36.4 43.7 51.6 43.9 30.5 29.3 29.3 23.9 24.7 25.1 25.9 26.5 26.0 17.9 13.7 11.3 11.2 Note: n/a: Data not available; SDR: standardized death rate. Sources: Health Information Centre, 2013; State Mental Health Centre, 2013. Table 7.8 HIV incidence (absolute numbers) according to transmission mode in Lithuania, 2006–2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Heterosexual 15 27 26 34 26 31 Male to male sexual contact 8 4 9 9 5 7 Injecting drug users 62 59 42 117 106 86 Unknown 15 15 18 20 16 41 Perinatal 0 1 0 0 0 1 Total 100 106 95 180 153 166 Source: Centre for Communicable Diseases and AIDS, 2013. The results from an adult population health survey (Grabauskas et al., 2011) showed that, overall, the proportion of respondents assessing their health as good remained relatively stable between 2008 and 2010, at 53% for men and 52% for women, with longer-term trends indicating an improvement since 2004. There were some positive trends towards healthier lifestyles in 2010. For men, daily smoking decreased from 39% in 2008 to 34% in 2010, while it increased slightly from 14% to 15% for women during the same period. The proportion of respondents drinking strong alcohol decreased in both sexes between 2008 and 2010, from 29% to 24% in males and from 12% to 9% in females. These trends are mirrored in national statistics, as cigarette sales fell
238 Economic crisis, health systems and health in Europe: country experience by 33% in 2009 and by 39% in 2010 compared with 2008 sales. However, these figures have to be treated carefully because of the possible increase in illegal tobacco sales. Alcohol consumption showed similar trends. However, the improvements in both indicators were short term, particularly in the case of alcohol, as in 2011 consumption bounced back to exceed pre-crisis levels (Table 7.9). The medium- and long-term impact of the financial crisis on health is still unclear. However, evidence from previous recessions shows that sharp rises in unemployment and loss of income have long-term effects on health, particularly that of the most vulnerable. Table 7.9 Smoking and alcohol consumption indicators in those aged 15 and over in Lithuania, 2007–2011 Smoking (cigarettes per inhabitant per year) Alcohol (100%) consumption, litres per inhabitant, (15+) population) per year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1,457 1,421 947 863 987 13.4 13.3 12.4 12.9 14.1 Source: Health Information Centre, 2013. 5. Discussion 5.1 Drivers of change The most important factors driving crisis-related changes in Lithuania were agents external to the health system – the parliament, the government and the Ministry of Finance. The new conservative-led coalition government that came to power in December 2008 had to take urgent measures to reduce public spending in order to cope with the crisis that had started to unfold. The government and the Ministry of Finance involved representatives of the Ministry of Health and the NHIF in discussions and the preparation of draft legislative amendments in response to the crisis. The crisis was regarded both as a challenge (bearing in mind the depth of the economic downturn) and as an opportunity to implement unpopular but necessary reforms. An example of such reforms was the restructuring of the hospital network with some reconfiguration of hospital services. However, the measures taken to rationalize hospital care were not sufficient (Karanikolos, Murauskiene & van Ginneken, 2013) and showed modest results. Therefore, it could be argued that this opportunity was not used to its full extent. However,
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238 Economic <strong>crisis</strong>, <strong>health</strong> <strong>systems</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>health</strong> in Europe: country experience<br />
by 33% in 2009 <strong>and</strong> by 39% in 2010 compared with 2008 sales. However,<br />
these figures have to be treated carefully because of the possible increase in<br />
illegal tobacco sales. Alcohol consumption showed similar trends. However,<br />
the improvements in both indicators were short term, particularly in the case<br />
of alcohol, as in 2011 consumption bounced back to exceed pre-<strong>crisis</strong> levels<br />
(Table 7.9).<br />
The medium- <strong>and</strong> long-term impact of the financial <strong>crisis</strong> on <strong>health</strong> is still<br />
unclear. However, evidence from previous recessions shows that sharp rises in<br />
unemployment <strong>and</strong> loss of income have long-term effects on <strong>health</strong>, particularly<br />
that of the most vulnerable.<br />
Table 7.9 Smoking <strong>and</strong> alcohol consumption indicators in those aged 15 <strong>and</strong> over<br />
in Lithuania, 2007–2011<br />
Smoking<br />
(cigarettes per inhabitant per year)<br />
Alcohol (100%) consumption, litres per<br />
inhabitant, (15+) population) per year<br />
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
1,457 1,421 947 863 987<br />
13.4 13.3 12.4 12.9 14.1<br />
Source: Health Information Centre, 2013.<br />
5. Discussion<br />
5.1 Drivers of change<br />
The most important factors driving <strong>crisis</strong>-related changes in Lithuania were<br />
agents external to the <strong>health</strong> system – the parliament, the government <strong>and</strong><br />
the Ministry of Finance. The new conservative-led coalition government that<br />
came to power in December 2008 had to take urgent measures to reduce<br />
public spending in order to cope with the <strong>crisis</strong> that had started to unfold.<br />
The government <strong>and</strong> the Ministry of Finance involved representatives of the<br />
Ministry of Health <strong>and</strong> the NHIF in discussions <strong>and</strong> the preparation of draft<br />
legislative amendments in response to the <strong>crisis</strong>.<br />
The <strong>crisis</strong> was regarded both as a challenge (bearing in mind the depth of the<br />
<strong>economic</strong> downturn) <strong>and</strong> as an opportunity to implement unpopular but<br />
necessary reforms. An example of such reforms was the restructuring of the<br />
hospital network with some reconfiguration of hospital services. However, the<br />
measures taken to rationalize hospital care were not sufficient (Karanikolos,<br />
Murauskiene & van Ginneken, 2013) <strong>and</strong> showed modest results. Therefore, it<br />
could be argued that this opportunity was not used to its full extent. However,