south-asian-militant-groups-and-global-jihad-in-2015

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QUILL IAM FOREWORD 2015 has been a tumultuous year for Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India. Al Qaeda’s position as the most feared global jihadist network has been usurped by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, who have claimed to have formed the Islamic State (IS). Although Al Qaeda has expanded into India with the launch of a new branch, Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), assessments of its strength vary, with some analysts arguing it will lose recruiting ground to IS. That said, the threat that AQIS presents in Pakistan and Afghanistan remains significant, less in terms of sheer fighting capacity, and more in terms of its stature as an ideological banner, propaganda arm, trainer, mediator, and dispenser of the “global jihadist narrative” or “global jihad”. IS’ gradual encroachment into South Asia can be considered in similar terms. In December 2014, NATO formally ended combat operations in Afghanistan, transferring full security responsibility to the Afghan government. The war came to an official, yet ambiguous conclusion. Although the majority of NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) troops will withdraw, a mission titled Resolute Support, also led by NATO, will see 12,000 troops remain in a non-combat role. Furthermore, although the new Government of National Unity, led by President Ashraf Ghani and CEO (of Afghanistan) Abdullah Abdullah, shows signs of greater willingness to work with its neighbours to combat regional terrorism than that of President Ghani’s predecessor, President Hamid Karzai, its potential was hampered for several months by difficulties in forming a Cabinet. While the possibility of negotiations with the Taliban is not yet off the table for President Ghani, incentives to talk will depend on them being prevented from gaining the upper hand in military affairs after the ISAF withdrawal. In 2015, two rounds of informal talks between the Taliban and representatives of the civil society may improve confidence in President Ghani’s Government of National Unity. Meanwhile Pakistan is reeling from the Pakistani Taliban’s attack on a military-run school in December 2014 that left 146 people, most of which were children, dead. This was the deadliest attack that the Pakistani Taliban have ever committed. Nevertheless, there are high hopes that this attack will mark a turning point in Pakistan’s history of selectively tolerating militant groups. This would be a key step in ensuring durable regional peace. However, not only does this depend on 6
NEW AG EN T S OF GLOB AL JIHAD Pakistan’s domestic policy, but also on the future actions of its neighbours Afghanistan and India as well. India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), raised hopes of better relations with Pakistan when he invited Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend his swearing-in ceremony in May, 2014. However, disputes with the Pakistani Government over which nation the Muslim majority Kashmir ought to belong to, either India, or Pakistan, remain far from resolved, and India is increasingly having to deal with ‘home-grown’ threats from Islamist extremist groups as they seek to influence the decision making processes at an executive level. These threats will not be quelled so long as there is the perception that Muslims are being subjugated by the Indian Government. Global jihadism can be considered a culture, a network, and a cause. It is a culture in the sense that it contains a shared set of ideals, values, and beliefs that motivate and shape the actions of its members. However, despite several significant cultural similarities that exist between different global jihadist groups, the reasons why people are attracted to the idea of global Jihadism vary, dependant on the geographical location of the individual in question, the socio-political context within which said individual is operating, and the disposition of that individual. Interestingly, global jihadism is also in many ways a youth culture, and it attracts young, adventurous, and disaffected people in search of purpose. In this atomized but networked landscape, unaccountable military violence, particularly against civilians, will only entrench support for the jihadist cause. Therefore, Quilliam recommends fostering regional and local civil society and grassroots initiatives, promoting counternarratives that focus on anti-extremist messages, and increasing focus on mental health policy and care distribution. This report will serve as field guide on the strategies of, and interactions between, major actors within both IS and Al Qaeda, as well as the other major militant groups in the region during a turning point in South Asian geopolitics. Haras Rafiq Managing Director of Quilliam 7
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