D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus
D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus
D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus
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<strong>D5</strong> <strong>Annex</strong> <strong>WP</strong> 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER<br />
MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND<br />
· Temperature Controlled/Ambient: e.g. fruit<br />
· Containerised/Noncontainerised<br />
· Transport Units: number of vehicles<br />
The main decision relates to the degree of commodity aggregation at which to make the<br />
estimation. If an aggregate approach is taken, the calculation procedure is relatively simple, and<br />
the conversion factors can be ‘handcrafted’. However, if a disaggregate approach is taken, the<br />
conversion rules are far less variable from corridor to corridor, and across time periods.<br />
This can be shown in relation to a simplified case, where an aggregated product group ‘Metals’<br />
can be disaggregated into three types, each with different handling characteristics as far as rates<br />
of containerisation are concerned.<br />
Corridor 1<br />
Container Non Container. Container % Non Container %<br />
Metals 1500 1500 50% 50%<br />
Metals: Type 1 500 500 50% 50%<br />
Metals: Type 2 1000 0 100% 0%<br />
Metals: Type 3 0 1000 0% 100%<br />
Corridor 2<br />
Container Non Container. Container % Non Container %<br />
Metals 1600 2000 44% 56%<br />
Metals: Type 1 1500 1500 50% 50%<br />
Metals: Type 2 100 0 100% 0%<br />
Metals: Type 3 0 500 0% 100%<br />
By varying the product mix across the two corridors, the aggregate containerisation factors<br />
change even though the disaggregate factors do not. We can offer the hypothesis that handling<br />
factors depend upon:<br />
· The product type<br />
· The heterogeneity of the product type<br />
· The corridor, and<br />
· the balance of trade across the corridor<br />
The strength of these factors will vary, depending upon the factor considered. Of these, the key<br />
element which can be controlled is the degree of heterogeneity within the product category. By<br />
using the diasggregated form of the COMEXT database (using approximately 10,000 CN8<br />
headings) it is plausible to assume that for certain factors (e.g. hazardous goods, chilled goods)<br />
codes can be simply labelled as ‘X’ or ‘not X’ rather than, say ‘15% X’ or ‘85% not X’, where<br />
X is any given factor. This avoids having to adjust the factors depending on the underlying mix.<br />
Document2<br />
27 May 2004<br />
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