D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus

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D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND In table 6.5 this is illustrated by an example. Table 6.5 Origin region Mode origin Illustration of double countings in domestic transport Transh. region Madrid (ES) road Pais Vasco (ES) Mode Transh. region Mode destination sea SouthWest (UK) rail Destination region West Midlands (UK) Madrid (ES) road Pais Vasco (ES) SouthWest (UK) rail West Midlands (UK) Volume (tonnes) Flow type 2000 International 30000 Domestic 70000 Domestic This table shows an international transport flow from Spain to the UK by sea with hinterland transport in Spain and in the UK. The hinterland transport (road transport from origin region to the port region in Spain, rail transport from the port region to the destination region in the UK) that is part of an international transport chain is also registered in domestic transport. This means that if all domestic transport would be included in the O/D matrix, the hinterland flows would be included twice; once as part of an international transport chain and once as domestic transport. In order to include the pure domestic transport on the O/D matrix the domestic transport has to be reduced by the hinterland flows (specified by origin region, by destination region and by commodity group). In the example given above, the volume of 30.000 tonnes domestic road transport between Madrid and Pais Vasco and the volume of 70.000 tonnes domestic rail transport between region SouthWest and region West Midlands should be reduced by 2.000 tonnes. Method 5: Estimation of cargo characteristics and transport unit information Trade data is highly detailed with respect to commodity type, but this is not necessarily a useful way of segmenting demand within the freight sector. Instead it is necessary to segment traffic flows according to their handling characteristics. For example, temperature controlled goods are limited to certain transport modes, e.g. driver accompanied refrigerated trailer, refrigerated container, and to certain transport services, e.g. container ships with plugin points. The challenge is that these characteristics have to be inferred from the commodity description, and cannot necessarily be drawn directly from trade data. The COMEXT database is published using the international 8 digit combined nomenclature (CN8) system. Because this database contains very detailed commodity information, the cargo characteristics are added to the database as one of the first steps where this detail is still available, afterwards when the data is aggregated to the NSTR 2 digit commodity level the cargo characteristics information stays available and accessible. The handling characteristics chosen for the testing phase of ETIS are: · Cargo Type/Mode of Appearance: Liquid Bulk, Dry Bulk, General Cargo, and Containers · Hazardous/Non Hazardous: e.g. flammable or toxic cargo 60 Document2 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND · Temperature Controlled/Ambient: e.g. fruit · Containerised/Noncontainerised · Transport Units: number of vehicles The main decision relates to the degree of commodity aggregation at which to make the estimation. If an aggregate approach is taken, the calculation procedure is relatively simple, and the conversion factors can be ‘handcrafted’. However, if a disaggregate approach is taken, the conversion rules are far less variable from corridor to corridor, and across time periods. This can be shown in relation to a simplified case, where an aggregated product group ‘Metals’ can be disaggregated into three types, each with different handling characteristics as far as rates of containerisation are concerned. Corridor 1 Container Non Container. Container % Non Container % Metals 1500 1500 50% 50% Metals: Type 1 500 500 50% 50% Metals: Type 2 1000 0 100% 0% Metals: Type 3 0 1000 0% 100% Corridor 2 Container Non Container. Container % Non Container % Metals 1600 2000 44% 56% Metals: Type 1 1500 1500 50% 50% Metals: Type 2 100 0 100% 0% Metals: Type 3 0 500 0% 100% By varying the product mix across the two corridors, the aggregate containerisation factors change even though the disaggregate factors do not. We can offer the hypothesis that handling factors depend upon: · The product type · The heterogeneity of the product type · The corridor, and · the balance of trade across the corridor The strength of these factors will vary, depending upon the factor considered. Of these, the key element which can be controlled is the degree of heterogeneity within the product category. By using the diasggregated form of the COMEXT database (using approximately 10,000 CN8 headings) it is plausible to assume that for certain factors (e.g. hazardous goods, chilled goods) codes can be simply labelled as ‘X’ or ‘not X’ rather than, say ‘15% X’ or ‘85% not X’, where X is any given factor. This avoids having to adjust the factors depending on the underlying mix. Document2 27 May 2004 61
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