D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus
D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus
D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND Year 2000: Trade Volumes, Tonnes, SITC 89, Miscellaneous Manufactures F NL D IT UK IRL DK EL PT Total F 816,186 NL 667,127 D 1,403,972 IT 960,777 UK 519,952 IRL 141,677 DK 125,798 EL 22,545 PT 68,102 Total 1,149,272 406,307 939,382 304,014 986,052 158,838 183,114 500,563 98,594 4,726,136 In fact, all the cells in this table are known, but if region to region totals rather than country to country totals are sought, a method has to be found to complete the matrix. Therefore the test has been carried out at the higher level so that different estimation methods can be compared against known values. For reference, the actual matrix is: Year 2000: Trade Volumes, Tonnes, SITC 89, Miscellaneous Manufactures: Actuals F NL D IT UK IRL DK EL PT Total F 42,646 305,370 81,523 212,456 5,734 8,779 127,529 32,149 816,186 NL 157,066 229,456 37,627 159,176 7,616 31,419 31,298 13,469 667,127 D 444,615 245,475 129,615 363,540 17,501 106,381 71,863 24,982 1,403,972 IT 359,208 37,894 193,248 130,637 5,911 14,713 202,331 16,835 960,777 UK 121,061 56,900 92,344 37,424 120,762 18,461 63,197 9,803 519,952 IRL 28,327 4,066 14,550 4,876 85,103 1,975 2,411 369 141,677 DK 19,991 13,039 59,594 4,789 25,413 956 1,060 956 125,798 EL 3,704 5,669 4,618 5,413 2,569 182 359 31 22,545 PT 15,300 618 40,202 2,747 7,158 176 1,027 874 68,102 Total 1,149,272 406,307 939,382 304,014 986,052 158,838 183,114 500,563 98,594 4,726,136 The first possibility is to fill in the matrix using a purely mechanical Furness algorithm, which attempts to find a solution (out of many feasible solutions) without the need for any underlying model. It works by seeding the initial matrix with zeroes on the leading diagonal, and ones elsewhere, and then successively factoring up the rows and then the columns so that the sums in the rows and columns tend toward the known row and column totals. After a few cycles, the algorithm “succeeds”. A Solution by Furnessing at the 2 Digit Level F NL D IT UK IRL DK EL PT Total F 0 88,519 264,571 70,492 211,403 30,995 35,631 95,597 18,978 816,186 NL 180,483 0 176,938 47,143 141,380 20,729 23,829 63,933 12,692 667,127 D 461,227 151,284 0 120,475 361,300 52,972 60,896 163,382 32,435 1,403,972 56 Document2 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND IT 255,312 83,743 250,297 0 199,998 29,323 33,709 90,440 17,954 960,777 UK 160,429 52,621 157,278 41,905 0 18,425 21,182 56,829 11,282 519,952 IRL 36,239 11,887 35,527 9,466 28,388 0 4,785 12,837 2,548 141,677 DK 32,320 10,601 31,685 8,442 25,317 3,712 0 11,449 2,273 125,798 EL 6,143 2,015 6,022 1,605 4,812 706 811 0 432 22,545 PT 17,223 5,649 16,885 4,499 13,492 1,978 2,274 6,101 0 68,102 Total 1,149,376 406,319 939,204 304,026 986,091 158,840 183,116 500,569 98,595 4,726,136 The first improvement considered was to carry out the same process, but with further disaggregation by commodity. The data was therefore disaggregated into nine 3 digit SITC groups. As the algorithm is so straightforward, there is very little extra overhead involved in this step. The result is: A Solution by Furnessing at the 3 Digit Level F NL D IT UK IRL DK EL PT Total F 0 84,855 263,541 70,517 213,886 28,964 36,600 98,574 19,248 816,186 NL 180,686 0 182,292 47,370 141,986 20,704 23,693 57,030 13,368 667,127 D 481,226 161,631 0 118,699 378,145 56,627 61,486 114,592 31,567 1,403,972 IT 233,890 77,001 232,976 0 184,096 27,567 31,779 155,660 17,807 960,777 UK 164,494 52,001 164,700 41,359 0 18,234 22,102 45,829 11,233 519,952 IRL 35,235 11,999 39,500 9,837 26,004 0 4,565 11,866 2,670 141,677 DK 32,734 11,545 34,218 8,227 25,339 4,135 0 7,337 2,263 125,798 EL 5,595 1,654 5,283 3,057 5,165 594 754 0 444 22,545 PT 15,647 5,666 16,422 4,955 11,554 2,022 2,146 9,690 0 68,102 Total 1,149,507 406,353 938,932 304,021 986,175 158,848 183,123 500,577 98,599 4,726,136 The result is not dissimilar, but the overall error is lower, and it is now possible to generate tables at a higher level of detail, which may be advantageous for later stages of ETIS. For example: A Solution by Furnessing for SITC 891, Arms and Ammunition F NL D IT UK IRL DK EL PT Total F 0 18 396 2,052 1,285 25 131 235 138 4,280 NL 290 0 165 855 535 10 55 98 58 2,065 D 362 9 0 1,067 668 13 68 122 72 2,381 IT 2,193 56 1,248 0 4,049 78 413 740 436 9,214 UK 326 8 185 961 0 12 61 110 65 1,729 IRL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 DK 57 1 32 168 105 2 0 19 11 396 EL 638 16 363 1,882 1,179 23 120 0 127 4,349 Document2 27 May 2004 57
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<strong>D5</strong> <strong>Annex</strong> <strong>WP</strong> 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER<br />
MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND<br />
IT 255,312 83,743 250,297 0 199,998 29,323 33,709 90,440 17,954 960,777<br />
UK 160,429 52,621 157,278 41,905 0 18,425 21,182 56,829 11,282 519,952<br />
IRL 36,239 11,887 35,527 9,466 28,388 0 4,785 12,837 2,548 141,677<br />
DK 32,320 10,601 31,685 8,442 25,317 3,712 0 11,449 2,273 125,798<br />
EL 6,143 2,015 6,022 1,605 4,812 706 811 0 432 22,545<br />
PT 17,223 5,649 16,885 4,499 13,492 1,978 2,274 6,101 0 68,102<br />
Total 1,149,376 406,319 939,204 304,026 986,091 158,840 183,116 500,569 98,595 4,726,136<br />
The first improvement considered was to carry out the same process, but with further<br />
disaggregation by commodity. The data was therefore disaggregated into nine 3 digit SITC<br />
groups. As the algorithm is so straightforward, there is very little extra overhead involved in<br />
this step. The result is:<br />
A Solution by Furnessing at the 3 Digit Level<br />
F NL D IT UK IRL DK EL PT Total<br />
F 0 84,855 263,541 70,517 213,886 28,964 36,600 98,574 19,248 816,186<br />
NL 180,686 0 182,292 47,370 141,986 20,704 23,693 57,030 13,368 667,127<br />
D 481,226 161,631 0 118,699 378,145 56,627 61,486 114,592 31,567 1,403,972<br />
IT 233,890 77,001 232,976 0 184,096 27,567 31,779 155,660 17,807 960,777<br />
UK 164,494 52,001 164,700 41,359 0 18,234 22,102 45,829 11,233 519,952<br />
IRL 35,235 11,999 39,500 9,837 26,004 0 4,565 11,866 2,670 141,677<br />
DK 32,734 11,545 34,218 8,227 25,339 4,135 0 7,337 2,263 125,798<br />
EL 5,595 1,654 5,283 3,057 5,165 594 754 0 444 22,545<br />
PT 15,647 5,666 16,422 4,955 11,554 2,022 2,146 9,690 0 68,102<br />
Total 1,149,507 406,353 938,932 304,021 986,175 158,848 183,123 500,577 98,599 4,726,136<br />
The result is not dissimilar, but the overall error is lower, and it is now possible to generate<br />
tables at a higher level of detail, which may be advantageous for later stages of <strong>ETIS</strong>. For<br />
example:<br />
A Solution by Furnessing for SITC 891, Arms and Ammunition<br />
F NL D IT UK IRL DK EL PT Total<br />
F 0 18 396 2,052 1,285 25 131 235 138 4,280<br />
NL 290 0 165 855 535 10 55 98 58 2,065<br />
D 362 9 0 1,067 668 13 68 122 72 2,381<br />
IT 2,193 56 1,248 0 4,049 78 413 740 436 9,214<br />
UK 326 8 185 961 0 12 61 110 65 1,729<br />
IRL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1<br />
DK 57 1 32 168 105 2 0 19 11 396<br />
EL 638 16 363 1,882 1,179 23 120 0 127 4,349<br />
Document2<br />
27 May 2004<br />
57
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