D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus

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D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND In this example the volume of the transit is lower than the international trade flow (between countries by commodity type). It also occurs that the transit flow can be matched, but that the transit flow is higher than the international trade flow. In such a case the total international trade flow is replaced by the transit flow (in order to include transhipment data in the O/D matrix). The remainder of the transit flow cannot be matched (country by country by commodity type), with these flows is dealt in the next two steps. Another possibility is that the transit flow cannot be matched at all (country by country by commodity type). These flows are also being dealt with in the next steps. From the total amount of about 190 million tonnes transit through Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany about 115 million tonnes can be matched with the international trade flows based on the country to country by commodity type relation. Make corrections for confusion between trade and transport flows In method 1 it has been noticed that for some flows large differences exist between import and export registration. In the previous step it appears that sometimes transit flows are larger or cannot be matched to international trade flows between the same countries and for the same commodity type. In this step these observations are further investigated in order to find a clarification and to see in what way the flows should be included in the O/D matrix. There is a relation between international trade flows with large differences between import and export registration and transit flows that cannot be matched with international trade flows. This relation is clarified by an example. In the Comext data there are two registrations for the trade of NSTR group 41 (iron ore) from the Netherlands to Germany: export registration of the Netherlands equals 8.9 million tonnes, import registration of Germany equals 26.9 million tonnes. There is a large gap between these registrations, besides, the Netherlands does not produce iron ore and thus the Netherlands cannot export these commodities. A possible explanation for this is that it does not concern a trade flow from the Netherlands to Germany, but a transit flow from a country via the Netherlands to Germany. The transit flows that cannot be matched to the international trade flows contains flows from Middle and Southern America via Rotterdam in the Netherlands to Germany. This confirms the idea that trade and transport are mixed up. The trade flow from Middle and Southern America via Rotterdam to Germany is registered by Germany as import from the Netherlands (the transport of the goods is considered as trade). This explains why the export registration of the Netherlands is much lower than the import registration of Germany (this flow is no trade of the Netherlands) and why the transit flow cannot be matched with the international trade data (the trade flow has a different origin country). This confusion between trade and transport is corrected in the O/D matrix by including the transit flows (in the example the flow from Middle and Southern America via Rotterdam to Germany including information about the transport modes used) and reducing the trade flow (trade from the Netherlands to Germany) with the same volume. 50 Document2 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND This procedure is applied for all trade flows in the O/D matrix that have large differences between the import and the export registration as indicated by the variables indicating the absolute and the relative difference (see description method 1) and that can be linked to transit flows that have not been matched with international trade flows. In this step about 55 million tonnes of the total of 75 million tonnes that could not be matched in the first step is linked to international trade flows, simultaneously a correction for the confusion between trade and transport has been applied. Add remaining transit flows The remaining transit flows of about 20 million tonnes that could not be matched to international trade flows in the first and second step will be added to the O/D matrix. Finally, the commodity type information and the cargo characteristics information is added to the transit flows that have been included in the O/D matrix based on the distribution of the international trade flows. Import and export by sea In the test of the method data about import and export by sea for Spain and Germany is used in order to construct complete (intraEU) maritime transport chains. For Spain trade data (source AEAT) is available including information about the border crossing region. Depending on the transport mode used for goods entering or leaving Spain, the border regions are equal to the port regions. The transport modes for the hinterland transport have been estimated based on domestic transport information. For Germany detailed data is available for German import and export via the ports of Hamburg and Bremen (although some missing elements have been estimated). Data about import and export via other German ports has been constructed by combining Eurostat port data with maritime data from SBA and national transport data from SBA and KBA. Import and export by sea data has the following format: · Origin region (NUTS2 region in case of export, otherwise country) · Transhipment region (NUTS2 region in the country) · Destination region (NUTS2 region in case of import, otherwise country) · Mode at origin · Mode at destination · Commodity type (NSTR2 or NSTR1 classification) · Transport volume (weight in tonnes) This data is used to estimate the origin/destination region, the transhipment region in the origin/destination region and the transport mode of the hinterland transport in the origin/destination country by commodity type (NSTR2 or NSTR1 classification) and by destination/origin country. Specific methods have been applied for different types of records in the database with two possible transhipment locations. It is noticed that for instance for maritime transport from Spain to Germany the port distribution in a country is estimated independently of the port distribution in the partner country (port distribution in Spain is Document2 27 May 2004 51
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