D5 Annex report WP 3: ETIS Database methodology ... - ETIS plus

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D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND 4.7 Estimating data gaps A broad collection of estimation models exists where socioeconomic, network data and transport sector data serve as input. At this stage the ODESTIM project (4 th framework EC) will be used as reference. In this project different models are tested for estimation of transport data based on the fourstage model of generation, attraction, distribution and modelsplit. Models are developed for different levels of availability of data ranging from no transport data at all to estimation of only the modalsplit. No models for estimation of intermodal data or loadingunits data are considered in ODESTIM. These models have proven to be successful as one of the tools for filling the remaining data gaps in the construction of the NEAC databases for Eastern Europe, the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. In the topdown approach estimation procedures are applied to estimate the region to region flows. The results of the topdown approach can be used to make an assignment on the transport network. The assignment can be used to estimate missing data such as transport modes used and transhipment locations. Once the freight O/D matrix has been build from available data sources and data gaps have been filled, other data can be added. 4.8 Adding information to the freight OD matrix After the freight OD matrix has been made available additional information that is not available in data sources can be added relatively easy by applying estimation procedures. For instance when the transport volume between an origin and a destination is known, transport performance information (expressed in tonnekilometres) can be calculated by multiplying the volume by the distance between the regions. In this section an overview is given of how characteristics of the transport flows (cargo types, cargo characteristics, containerisation, number of TEUs, number of transport units) and transport performance information (tonnekm, vehiclekm/vesselkm, TEUkm) can be estimated. Along the project these estimation procedures will be further elaborated. 4.8.1 Cargo types and characteristics Inclusion of cargo types and characteristics in the database has to be done by estimation since not all sources used in the topdown approach contain this type of information. Where the characteristics directly relate to the commodity itself , e.g. whether the goods are temperature controlled or ambient, or whether they are hazardous, it makes sense to relate these attributes to the commodity classification scheme, and to make the translation at an early stage of the processing so that this information is accessible in other stages. 26 Document2 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 3: DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND 4.8.2 Containerisation Determining the containerisation is a real challenge due to the lack of data and the unreliability/incompleteness of the available material. An important source in which a container indicator is included is the COMEXT data. Another important source is the maritime statistics of EUROSTAT in which container information is available. The use of this source in the method will be analysed. The ability to observe and measure levels of containerisation within COMEXT is typically limited to extraEU trade flows. However, intraEU flows also need to be covered within ETIS. One possibility is to use a methodology developed by MDS Transmodal in which a broad segmentation is made by commodity according to the expected handling requirements of the products in question. The trade data is analysed at 5 digit SITC level (3500 different commodity descriptions) and they are assigned to two main cargo types: · Nonunitised; · Unitised. The nonunitised set, can typically be excluded from an analysis of containerisation. Instead, it can be further subdivided into dry bulk, liquid bulk, semi bulk and general cargo categories. The ratios differ by corridor, so that for example, deep sea flows may have different characteristics compared to short sea. The unitised or “unitisable” set relates to commodities that are typically higher value goods that may be handled in containers, but which may also travel in road trailers. It is not possible to ascertain from a commodity description the actual mode of transport as this also depends upon the distance from origin to destination, the transport mode choices available, their costs, and in some cases upon the balance of containerised cargo in each direction. Therefore the assignment of the category ‘unitised’ a commodity is the limit of this process. Unitised flows can also converted into FEUs (forty foot equivalent container units), analogous to 4044 tonne truckloads. Again this is based upon the 5 digit SITC commodity, which improves the accuracy when there is a mix of commodity types within a single 2 digit definition. Like this, the volume traded can be expressed as unit loads without the actual mode being assigned. 4.8.3 Number of transport units (vehicles/vessels) by type The determination of the number of transport units (number of vehicles for road, number of trains for rail and number of vessels for inland waterways and maritime transport) depends very much on the quality of the mode split data, and upon surveys providing profiles of vehicle type. The methodology depends upon knowing the mode of transport, the length of haul and the commodity. Document2 27 May 2004 27
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