D5 Annex report WP 4 - ETIS plus

D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER
MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND
We proposes extrapolating an OD matrix based on destination/mode choice parameters from the
observed DATELINE matrix, and calibrating its flows based on link flow data. The
establishment of the DATELINE­based OD matrix requires an assignment step, which IVT will
undertake. Correcting the synthetic ETIS OD matrix is then an iterative process. The
methodology proposed by ETH follows Vrtic, Axhausen, Bell, Grosso, and Matthews (2004):
· Generation of mode choice sets for each trip (at least NUTS3 resolution), based on least
impedance (supply models from ETIS task WP7 are needed):
• Road: individual motorized mode
• Rail: public transport
• Air + transport from NUTS centroid to/from airport
· Enrichment of DATELINE with the non­chosen modes
· Enrichment of DATELINE with socio­economic parameters at the appropriate NUTS
level, including measures of attractiveness for destinations
· Estimation of Destination/Mode choice parameters for trip purposes “work” and “nonwork”,
based on revealed choices, mode and route alternatives, and socio­economic
variables. Here, a route and a mode have the same meaning since the route is modedependent.
· Assignment of the observed DATELINE OD matrix on the modal network models with
the use of the Logit parameters from DATELINE.
· Comparison of the results with the available IATA and UN/ECE or other flows, rail flows
if available.
· Calibration of the DATELINE­based OD matrices to the link flows with Fuzzy Logit
techniques or by the approach of path flow estimators (Vrtic, Axhausen, Bell, Grosso, and
Matthews 2004)
· Analysis of the changes in the matrices, and, respectively, the mode changes
· Fusion of ETIS Base OD Matrices with the DATELINE­derived matrix
The OD matrix and destination/mode choice modelling can be repeated if the DATELINE
survey is renewed or expanded for other countries, if the socio­economic datasets change, or if
the quality of the supply networks (e.g. development of the TEN corridors and thus the link
flows) change. This enables a means of renewing the OD matrices in ETIS.
The method relies on obtaining link traffic counts or their estimates. If traffic counts cannot be
obtained, for passenger rail for example, they could be modelled based on boarding/alighting
rates, provided the latter can be obtained, though this would greatly complicate the process.
Citizens of accession countries, Norway, and non­European travellers are not included in
DATELINE. To estimate total OD passenger flows, the DATELINE­based parameters will be
used in the first instance using the usual socio­demographic data about these countries. The
choice models will integrate, if relevant, the behavioural differences due to income differences
in the parameter set.
While the trip distribution in DATELINE extends to destinations in all regions of the world,
very few journeys originating outside the EU15 and Switzerland were captured. These countries
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