D5 Annex report WP 4 - ETIS plus

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D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND Figure 4.3 Distribution of Dateline origins and destinations In a first step, the DATELINE observations will be used together with socioeconomic datasets and LOS datasets for nonchosen transportation modes (ETIS tasks WP2 and WP7) to estimate a destination/mode choice model for the modes road, air, and rail and the trip purpose “work” and “nonwork”. In this simplified set of transportation alternatives, ferry transport is associated with the mode that the ferry carries (train = rail; motor vehicle = road). Also, the characteristics of the intermodal access and egress to airports for the air mode are included as generalised costs from each NUTS centroid to each airport in the air mode (from ETIS task WP7). Finally, tour buses cannot at the moment be modelled due to a lack of data about their level of service. The trip purpose “nonwork” will consist of the DATELINE purposes “holiday” and “other private”. The parameters (generalised costs) of the model will be compared with those of the synthetic ETIS matrices. This is a first check of the OD matrices’ consistency. In a second step, the flows from the synthetic ETIS matrix will be compared with a derived flow matrix that is based on DATELINE. These flows are extrapolated as follows: the DATELINE matrix is first assigned to a network model (Bleisch and Fröhlich 2003), constrained by the estimated parameters of the discrete choice model. Then, the flows are adjusted according to UN/ECE (road) and IATA (air) link flows by an OD estimation method (Vrtic, Axhausen, Bell, Grosso and Matthews 2004 or Ortuzar and Willumsen 1995). The resulting DATELINEbased flow matrix can then be used as a basis for adjustments to the synthetic ETIS OD flow matrix using a suitable data fusion technique (See for example Peter Davidson Consultancy, 2003). 28 Document3 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND We proposes extrapolating an OD matrix based on destination/mode choice parameters from the observed DATELINE matrix, and calibrating its flows based on link flow data. The establishment of the DATELINEbased OD matrix requires an assignment step, which IVT will undertake. Correcting the synthetic ETIS OD matrix is then an iterative process. The methodology proposed by ETH follows Vrtic, Axhausen, Bell, Grosso, and Matthews (2004): · Generation of mode choice sets for each trip (at least NUTS3 resolution), based on least impedance (supply models from ETIS task WP7 are needed): • Road: individual motorized mode • Rail: public transport • Air + transport from NUTS centroid to/from airport · Enrichment of DATELINE with the nonchosen modes · Enrichment of DATELINE with socioeconomic parameters at the appropriate NUTS level, including measures of attractiveness for destinations · Estimation of Destination/Mode choice parameters for trip purposes “work” and “nonwork”, based on revealed choices, mode and route alternatives, and socioeconomic variables. Here, a route and a mode have the same meaning since the route is modedependent. · Assignment of the observed DATELINE OD matrix on the modal network models with the use of the Logit parameters from DATELINE. · Comparison of the results with the available IATA and UN/ECE or other flows, rail flows if available. · Calibration of the DATELINEbased OD matrices to the link flows with Fuzzy Logit techniques or by the approach of path flow estimators (Vrtic, Axhausen, Bell, Grosso, and Matthews 2004) · Analysis of the changes in the matrices, and, respectively, the mode changes · Fusion of ETIS Base OD Matrices with the DATELINEderived matrix The OD matrix and destination/mode choice modelling can be repeated if the DATELINE survey is renewed or expanded for other countries, if the socioeconomic datasets change, or if the quality of the supply networks (e.g. development of the TEN corridors and thus the link flows) change. This enables a means of renewing the OD matrices in ETIS. The method relies on obtaining link traffic counts or their estimates. If traffic counts cannot be obtained, for passenger rail for example, they could be modelled based on boarding/alighting rates, provided the latter can be obtained, though this would greatly complicate the process. Citizens of accession countries, Norway, and nonEuropean travellers are not included in DATELINE. To estimate total OD passenger flows, the DATELINEbased parameters will be used in the first instance using the usual sociodemographic data about these countries. The choice models will integrate, if relevant, the behavioural differences due to income differences in the parameter set. While the trip distribution in DATELINE extends to destinations in all regions of the world, very few journeys originating outside the EU15 and Switzerland were captured. These countries Document3 27 May 2004 29
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ANNEX D EUROSTAT NEW CRONOS TABLES
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ANNEX E PASSENGER FLOWS FRANCE - TE
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ANNEX F OBSERVED ODDATELINE MATRI
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