D5 Annex report WP 4 - ETIS plus

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D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND Where no data are available or the harmonisation is not possible due to missing data new models base on the Dateline data will be used to fill the gaps. This research models the influences on the route and mode choices of longdistance travellers (trips over 100km) on TransEuropean routes. The modelling is based on DATELINE, the most recent, comprehensive, and coordinated survey of longdistance travel in Europe. The results include insights into modelling longdistance route and mode choice, as well as measures of regional demand and supply for longdistance travel. These results will be used in policy studies on the demand for longdistance travel, and to evaluate the supply and service in the TransEuropean Network of transport infrastructure. The outcomes will be reported at the aggregated level NUTS 2 to support decision making in the European Union. The origins/destinations of longdistance travel from the DATELINE survey will be associated with the routes/modes that were available to the travellers. The routes and modes are represented in a number of network models, each of which represents a different transportation mode. The lowestcost routes for the transportation alternatives will be calculated on these modal networks. Using this choiceset of alternative transportation modes and alternative routes, along with information about trip, traveller, and mode characteristics, a discrete choice model will simulate the route/mode choices. With appropriate socioeconomic weighting of the DATELINE data, this model will be statistically validated for extrapolation to reflect annual behaviour at the scale of the respective NUTS populations. Before stating the procedure and the test phase in more detail we shed a light on the background of the survey. DATELINE is a householdlevel survey of 86,000 residents of the EU 15 and Switzerland about their longdistance travel. Individuals over 15 years of age reported travel of over 100km crowfly distance for the purposes of “holiday” in the previous 12 months, as well as “other private” and “business” in the previous 3 months, and “commuting” for the previous 4 weeks. The survey was carried out from October, 2001 through October, 2002. Among other variables, the dataset contains travel date, destination, duration, and mode. Specific travel decisions like mode changes were recorded for travel between significant stops en route. Thus, a coarse record of route choice, in the form of stops en route, is also available, in particular for public transport based trips. DATELINE is based on trip chains which form roundtrip journeys or commutes, in which the final destination was over 100km distant from home. Excursions are a further form of trip chain which embark from and return to the journey destination. The end or beginning of a trip is determined by a stop of over 2 hours with a distinct purpose. To make the DATELINE data useful for corridor studies and OD Matrices, the trips have to be extracted from the journeys, excursions, and commutes to provide a list of all movements. This file of pointtopoint trips provides a set of observed OD matrices by mode and journey/excursion/commute purpose. A true “trip purpose” is not recorded in DATELINE (Davidson 2003), but it can be assumed to be 26 Document3 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND the same as the purpose of the trip chain. The origins and destinations of trips (also outside the EU and Switzerland) are geocoded to a point in the area of the true origin or destination, not necessarily corresponding to a NUTS centroid, but at a resolution on the order of NUTS5. The SABE database will enable the correction of this geocoding to the EUstandard NUTS centroid location. A summary of the data is provided by the following items: · Nationalities surveyed EU 15 + CH = 16 · Usable surveys 86,251 · Trips from Journeys, Excursions, Commutes 144,011 · Unique points (origin or destination) 20,549 · Unique OD Pairs 101,591 An observed OD Matrix of the observed DATELINE trips at NUTS0 level for all modes is in the appendix F. The observed mode share of the trips is: · Private car – 59,0 % · Tour bus/coach – 8,5 % · Air – 19,5 % · Ferries – 1,9 % The mode share and the distributions of trip duration and distance compare with other surveys of long distance travel (sampling is discussed in Peter Davidson Consultancy 2003).When weighted and extrapolated to the population of each country, the dataset exhibits much lower trip rates (trips/person/year) than national longdistance travel surveys have shown (compare with national surveys in Hubert and Potier 2003, Swiss Einkommen und Verbrauchserhebung SFSO 1998, INVERMO results for Germany in Axhausen and Frick 2004). The observed OD matrix therefore will just be used indirectly for the calibration of the synthetic ETIS matrix flows. Instead, the observed DATELINE matrix will seed the estimation of a DATELINEbased flow matrix, which will form a basis for comparison with the ETIS Base OD matrix. Document3 27 May 2004 27
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ANNEX D EUROSTAT NEW CRONOS TABLES
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ANNEX E PASSENGER FLOWS FRANCE - TE
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ANNEX F OBSERVED ODDATELINE MATRI
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