D5 Annex report WP 4 - ETIS plus

D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER
MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND
4.7.3 Trip motive­related constraints
Due to the increasing degree of model detail (three considered trip purposes) some remarks are
necessary concerning the quality of data in these segments. While the transport flows for the
business are sufficient (as the general structure is captured by the current model specifications),
the models for holiday and private travel patterns need further improvements.
The private travellers are quite good captured by surveys in the northern countries while the
southern are lacking such information. The same holds for the holiday trips. The behaviour of
holidaymakers is very complex and might not be covered by a single overall model for all kinds
of holidays or individuals. Unfortunately, detailed surveys focusing on this trip purpose are
seldom available. Very little is known about the differences between the holiday habits in
different European countries and the driving forces behind them. Only some sociological
research and statistical figures can give some hints about general patterns and preferences.
While strong indications are given that the number of holiday trips is correlated with the
individuals’ standard of living, modelling the choice where individuals spend the holidays is
much more complicated. We know e.g. that the preference of people living in Northern and
Southern Europe to stay in their own country is higher than generally in the remaining parts of
Europe. We are aware that e.g. common language might be a factor influencing the destination
choice but the data available is not complete enough to prove such theories in detail.
Additionally one of the main driving forces in this field could not be considered – the supply of
package tours and the corresponding expenditures. This factor plays an important role in this
field and the recent years, the trend towards increasing numbers of last­minute offers (including
scheduled as well as non­scheduled flights) and individual offers via internet intensified the
uncertainties in the consumers’ destination choice.
To be able to consider specific information that are available for e.g. certain relations, these
corrections have to be merged into the base year matrix as the models are not able to be adjusted
for any specific relation. Hence, for modelling future developments the corrected matrices have
to be forecasted by using a pivot approach that considers the level of the underlying patterns. In
consequence the first aim is to reach correct information about the total passenger volume.
Afterwards one can concentrate on trip purpose specific items step by step, e.g. starting with
separating business and non­business trips and so on.
4.8 The use of DATELINE for the calibration of the OD matrix
Due to the data collection guidelines a lot of data will already be harmonised to some extent.
Nevertheless the different sources have to be analysed at their intersections to allow for a
consistent treatment within one matrix. Simple logic like as many passengers must leave a
country as they will enter at the bordering country etc. has already been mentioned above and
their treatment was stated.
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