D5 Annex report WP 4 - ETIS plus

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D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND generate vectors of originating per capita journeys (O(x)Vector), one per trip purpose business (x=B), private (x=P) and holidays (x=H). The input for the generation models come from various sources and covers regional indicators of demography, economy, environment and location. These indicators had been identified, as being the determinants of transport demand. The estimation of nonlinear model specifications on the base of household survey data resulted in parameters giving the influence of the determinants and their interdependencies. The O(x)Vectors coming from the generation stage are fed into the corresponding distribution models which raise the per capita number of journeys to the total amount of originating transport demand and spread the outgoing number of journeys between the available destinations. The result is an asymmetric origindestination matrix per trip purpose (OD(x) Matrix). As in the generation stage, the distribution within space is also determined by regional indicators that express the attractiveness of a certain region to being visited by travellers from the origin. Here population, economic situation, climate and landscape are the ‘attractors’ of journeys. The sequence of model steps is completed by the choice of transport modes and the assignment to the network representations. The individualbased model approach and the resulting asymmetric flow matrices allow a better calibration of the model system than classical approaches do. Due to the impossibility to separate generating and attracting effects in the classical ones, the calibration attempts suffer from lacking detail in specification as it is not always clear if e.g. a bias in the level of transport flows is owed to the amount of originating traffic or its spatial distribution. The following subsections will describe briefly the basics of the generation and distribution steps. 18 Document3 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND Figure 4.1 Generation / distribution process 4.5.1 The generation process Based on household surveys, we applied a set of trip purpose specific models to generate the number of annual journeys per individual. And using the knowledge available we expanded the German data bases for estimation purposes wherever possible by the corresponding data from other nations. The combination of surveys from different countries allowed to identify the impacts of single determinants on the mobility per capita. The purposespecific estimation data bases contain usually socioeconomic information about the interviewee’s. These observations are enriched geographic, historic and political information concerning the region to allow a wide spread modelling approach. The variables considered were chosen according to the possibility to forecast and/or simulate this information on aggregate level. E.g. household income (class) which is available in a number of surveys could not be used for modelling purposes as this information could not be derived from official statistics nor could it be simulated with appropriate effort. Formally, the annual number of trips per person i per purpose p (T i,p ) is a function of the demographic and economic characteristics of the individuals under consideration and the spatial structures they live in. In the formula below, D i stands for attributes like age and gender, while E i expresses economic indicators (like income, car ownership etc). The latter one is often not Document3 27 May 2004 19
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ANNEX C INDICATOR COMPILATION TEMPL
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ANNEX D EUROSTAT NEW CRONOS TABLES
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ANNEX E PASSENGER FLOWS FRANCE - TE
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ANNEX F OBSERVED ODDATELINE MATRI
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