D5 Annex report WP 4 - ETIS plus

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D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND In consequence we face within ETIS reference database not just a data collection task moreover we deal with a complex forecasting sequence within a calibration routine. 4.3 Lack of information and implications for modelling Due to the heterogeneous availability of data in international trip purpose specific passenger transport figures for the whole of Europe, the construction of a base year matrix covering Europe can not be composed out of existing figures only. As the project requires a full matrix as well as mode and trip purposespecific submatrices, the lack of information has to be filled with modelled data. This implies that it is not possible to develop a model for the forecasting of travel patterns directly from any ‘handmade’ matrix that was composed with considerably great effort out of ‘puzzle pieces’. To know the impacts of travel determinants for the different trip motives and to be able to forecast the effects in changes in these factors, a welldefined model structure is necessary that is able to fulfil the corresponding requirements. Therefore existing models (VACLAV, VIA) will be used which have been developed under consideration of disaggregate survey data. While the northern European countries are quite well represented in the estimation data base of the models, there have been no national surveys available for modelling from the southern countries like Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Therefore the latest European long distance travel survey DATELINE will be used to validate the matrix and to enrich the modelling where necessary to fill existing gaps as far as possible. Of course for the 10 accession countries as well as the PanEuropean countries and the Intercontinental scope considered no surveys have been included into the models so far. Here the adaptation of a heuristic assuming equivalent consumer behaviour has to be applied. 4.4 Data limitations The information for southern European countries is still very limited. Travel surveys that indicate the travel behaviour are not available and global figures that originate from those countries are not at hand for all modes (or at all). The following updated table shows the data per mode on national level that is available for domestic and international transport. The reader should be aware that the quality of information and its degree of detail varies tremendously between the different sources. The capitals in brackets indicates that the corresponding information is only partly available or is derived from less secured sources. Information about/from sea/ferry is covered by the main modes rail and road. Coaches respectively the bus mode is listed together with the cars respectively the main mode road. 16 Document3 27 May 2004
D5 Annex WP 4: ETIS DATABASE METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE USER MANUAL – PASSENGER DEMAND Table 4.1 Data availability in WP 4 passenger demand. Data sources for calibrating passenger transport model results Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Sweden United Kingdom Norway Switzerland Austria A A RC A A P A A A A CP CP A A RC (R)P Belgium A RC A A CP CP CP A A CP CP A A RC CP Denmark A A A A A A A A A A A A Finland A A A RC RC RC RC RC RC A A RC France A A A A A A A A A A A A A Germany A A A A A A A A A A A A Greece CP CP CP CP CP A A RC P Ireland A CP CP CP CP A P RC P Italy (A) A A A A A A RC A Luxembourg P CP A A A RC P Netherlands A CP A A A RC A Portugal A A A RC CP Spain P A A A CP Sweden A (R) A United Kingdom P A A Norway Switzerland Traffic Information available for mode: Rail: R Car/Coach: C Plane: P All: A Unfortunately – but as expected the situation on the lower level is much worse than it seems from an aggregated level. Hence the obtained results especially for the southern part of Europe have to be regarded with care concerning the representativeness of generated transport patterns. RC (A) For the ten accession countries there were no other data available, like some basic figures concerning the total amount of mode specific traffic and selected passenger figures of airports. Therefore some of the data sources as described in section 5.2 are therefore of a special interest. To pick out just two examples, the IATA Digest on statistics covering traffic by flight stage and the ship pax statistics yearbooks are the only sources available for passenger flows to and from Malta and Cyprus. This not really satisfying situation drove us to develop the concept of a testing matrix, as described in the section 4.9. 4.5 The MKmetric model approach Aware about the problems mentioned in the previous section, we decided to use an approach which was developed inhouse. This approach is mainly based on survey data and generates journeys in a twostep process. In the first step the trip rates per capita are estimated, while in the second step relationspecific proportions of aggregated trip volumes are quantified. The figure 5.1 gives a general overview about the structure of the model/ data generation process applied in this project. The generation process consists of three submodels that Document3 27 May 2004 17
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ANNEX D EUROSTAT NEW CRONOS TABLES
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ANNEX E PASSENGER FLOWS FRANCE - TE
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ANNEX F OBSERVED ODDATELINE MATRI
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