Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

Communication on Climate Change, 1995). New series of scenarios have been issued
step by step in 1995–2009 (5th Slovak National Communication on Climate
Change, 2009). Outputs from four GCMs (CGCM3.1, ECHAM5, KNMI and MPI) have
been used in the daily data downscaling as new climate change scenarios for Slovakia
since 2011. These models belong to the newest category of so-called coupled
atmosphere-ocean models with detail network of grid points. Now only selected
results from the newest climate change scenarios are presented in Figs. 5, 8 and 9
(Lapin et al., 2012).
All from these model outputs and downscaling methods enable to prepare also
combined scenarios based on the GCMs and RCMs modified outputs and regression
or physical relations among climatic variables. Potential evapotranspiration
(Eo) monthly sum series can be considered as one of possible combined scenarios.
Importance of Eo sums change can be seen in Table 1, where monthly and annual
30-year average Eo sums for Hurbanovo are shown. More about measured Eo is
published in Hrvoľ et al. (2012). Using simple Zubenok (1976) method the future
Eo scenarios can be calculated just from the saturation deficit monthly averages.
Another combined scenarios are (monthly values): snow cover depth, number
of snow cover days, runoff, soil moisture, occurrence of heat waves, occurrence
of thunderstorms and flash floods etc. (Lapin and Melo, 2004, Lapin et al., 2009).
Table 1. Scenarios of monthly and annual sums of the potential evapotranspiration
Eo (in mm) in 2011–2040 (2025 time frame) and in 2071–2100 (2085 time frame)
by 4 different RCMs and GCMs models for Hurbanovo, HURB 1961–1990 – calculated
according to the measured values, all by the Zubenok method.
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Year
HURB 1961–1990 11.7 19.1 47.1 84.3 111.7 130.1 133.7 112.4 77.1 46.8 22.8 12.1 808.9
KNMI A1B 2025 12.5 20.6 52.1 92.2 118.3 135.2 141.0 118.1 82.6 49.6 24.4 12.7 859.4
KNMI A1B 2085 14.7 22.3 54.8 93.7 126.5 148.4 156.6 130.6 86.8 52.7 25.9 13.7 926.7
MPI A1B 2025 14.3 20.7 52.2 91.4 111.2 133.4 136.7 122.4 84.4 52.6 25.9 13.9 859.0
MPI A1B 2085 19.1 25.5 54.6 90.3 116.3 141.7 148.0 135.9 95.3 56.2 29.6 17.0 929.6
CGCM3.1 A2 2025 12.7 21.2 48.2 91.4 116.8 137.7 136.0 120.4 85.1 52.6 23.2 12.2 857.5
CGCM3.1 A2 2085 12.4 21.2 49.3 103.7 123.6 141.5 143.0 135.5 96.7 57.8 27.8 14.1 926.6
CGCM3.1 B1 2025 12.3 22.4 48.0 90.0 117.9 135.3 135.5 116.5 80.2 50.4 24.2 12.7 845.3
CGCM3.1 B1 2085 11.8 20.4 45.8 95.9 117.6 138.7 136.7 122.5 84.3 53.3 24.5 13.6 865.1
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