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Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

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Changes in snow cover depth and occurrence influence also the regime of other<br />

climatic variables, weather and climate, predomi<strong>na</strong>ntly during the February to<br />

May season (snowmelt, soil moisture, spring temperature rise, growing season<br />

shift, spring wildfire risk etc.). Wildfires occurred in Slovakia also in altitudes<br />

above 1000 m a.s.l. during the last 20 years, the most vulnerable seems the southern<br />

half of Slovakia. Figs. 8 and 9 shows that precipitation sce<strong>na</strong>rios are not equal<br />

using different models, but several options have similar patterns.<br />

Figure 8. Time series of summer<br />

(JJA) precipitation totals R<br />

in 1950–2100 modified for the<br />

station Hurbanovo from GCMs<br />

CGCM3.1 A2 and B1 (grid points<br />

1 and 2) and the measured<br />

summer precipitation totals at<br />

Hurbanovo in 1950–2010 (solid<br />

line).<br />

Figure 9. Time series of summer<br />

(JJA) precipitation totals R<br />

in 1950–2100 modified for the<br />

station Hurbanovo from RCMs<br />

ECHAM5 A2 and B1 (grid points<br />

R1, R2) and the measured<br />

summer precipitation totals at<br />

Hurbanovo in 1950–2010 (solid<br />

line).<br />

OTHER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS<br />

Climate change sce<strong>na</strong>rios have been designed for Slovakia since 1992. The first<br />

generation of sce<strong>na</strong>rios was quite simple assessment of possible mean air temperature<br />

and mean precipitation totals changes in the future 30-year time frames<br />

compared to 1951–1980 climatic normals. Then more complex sce<strong>na</strong>rios have<br />

been prepared for selected localities and regions in Slovakia (1st Slovak Natio<strong>na</strong>l<br />

96

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