Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

adiation since 1961 (IPCC, 2007). Increase of the atmospheric greenhouse gases
concentration and enhanced atmospheric greenhouse effect is probably the
only acceptable forcing factor and explanation for such development (IPCC, 2007).
Variations in the air temperature series can be caused also by several natural processes.
Irregular atmospheric and oceanic circulation oscillations (ElNiňo, ENSO,
NAO, AO, AAO) are the reasons of most of sudden inter-annual and inter-seasonal
deviations (Figs. 1–4). Daily and monthly temperature variations in small areas,
like Slovakia, can be caused mostly by random changes in atmospheric circulation
(synoptic causes)
Figure 3. Annual averages of
air temperature deviations
(dT) from the 1961–1990
mean in the Northern Hemisphere
continents (solid line)
and Global (dashed line) in
1971–2010 (by CRU, 2012).
Figure 4. Annual averages of
air temperature deviations (dT)
from the 1961–1990 mean in the
Northern Hemisphere continents
(solid line) and Global
(dashed line) in 1880–2010 (by
CRU, 2012).
Air temperature projections and scenarios until the 2100 show continuation of
irregular increase by about 3°C (Fig. 5), this increase is nearly equally all year round.
Variability of air temperature values (means and daily extremes) will not change
significantly, but its impacts are supposed as more negative than before. Sudden decrease
of air temperature after long series of relatively warm days may cause higher
damages in the ecosystems and socio-economic sectors than frequent changes of
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