Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

1881 (Fig. 2) and on the Northern Hemisphere continents 1.2 °C since 1971 (Fig. 3)
and 1.2 °C since 1881 (Fig. 4) using linear trend approximation. Climate change
scenarios designed around the 1995 seem fit well the observed temperature trends
not only in Slovakia (Lapin and Melo, 2004) but also globally and on the Northern
Hemisphere continents (IPCC, 2007). Increase in mean temperatures and changes
in extreme temperature events are connected also with other climatic elements
change, mainly with precipitation occurrence, intensity and totals, with drought
or flash floods occurrence and intensity etc. There are several meteorological stations
in Slovakia (30 to 45, dependent on climatic element) with complete and
good quality observations since 1951 (some of them only since 1961). Three stations
have complete data since 1881, 203 stations have quite complete monthly
precipitation totals since 1901. Most of these stations well represent such important
sub-regions like the Danubian lowland, other lowlands and hollows in Slovakia,
or the area around the Tatra mountains.
Outputs from four GCMs (CGCM3.1, ECHAM5, KNMI and MPI) have been used
in the daily data downscaling as climate change scenarios for Slovakia since
2011. These models belong to the newest category of so-called coupled atmosphere-ocean
models with detail network of grid points. The model CGCM3.1 has
9 grid points in the Slovak territory and its neighborhood, the model ECHAM5
has 12 such grid points (about 200 × 200 km resolution) and with corresponding
smoothing of topography. The regional GCMs (shortly RCMs), KNMI and MPI represent
a more detail integration of the atmospheric and oceanic dynamic equations
with grid points resolution 25 × 25 km, while the boundary conditions are
taken from the ECHAM5 GCM. The KNMI and MPI RCMs have 19 × 10 grid points
(190) in Slovakia and its neighborhood with a detailed topography and appropriate
expression of all topographic elements larger than 25 km. Downscaling
of these model outputs to needed sites in Slovakia by use of measured climatic
data enable to design daily climate change scenarios of basic climatic variables.
They showed further significant increase in mean air temperature and important
changes in the precipitation and water balance variables. These scenarios can be
easily used for designing combined scenarios of other climatic variables as well
as the studies on impacts and vulnerability to climate change. More detail information
on these models, the downscaling techniques applied in Slovakia and
resulted climate change scenarios can be found in Lapin et al., (2012).
For the assessment of climate change impacts on different socio-economic
sectors and activities both by measured and modeled climatic data were applied
in Slovakia since 1993 (1st to 5th Slovak National Communication on Climate
Change issued by the Slovak Ministry of the Environment). These data have been
91