Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS,
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTING OPTIONS
Milan Lapin
Abstract
Climate change represents only that part of all climatic changes, which is caused by
the enhanced greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic activities. Significant increase
in global, hemispheric and regional temperatures has been registered in the last
30/40 years. The most pronounced changes have been registered in the Arctic and in
some continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere (also in other climate characteristics).
Climate change scenarios designed around 1995 seem fit well the observed
temperature trends not only in Slovakia but also on the Northern Hemisphere continents.
Four General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been used to design the climate
change scenarios for Slovakia in 2011. Two of them are global (Canadian CGCM3.1
and German ECHAM5) and two regional (Dutch KNMI and German MPI), both with
ECHAM5 boundary conditions. All GCMs offer outputs of several variables with daily
frequency for the period from 1951 to 2100. Based on these outputs and measured
meteorological data the daily scenarios for many climatic and precipitation stations
in Slovakia have been calculated. Scenarios for the following variables have been
prepared: the daily means, maxima and minima of air temperature, daily means of
relative air humidity all measured at 2 m elevation above the ground, daily precipitation
totals measured at one m elevation above the ground, daily means of wind
speed measure at 10 m elevation above the ground and daily sums of global radiation.
These scenarios can be easily used to prepare combined scenarios of other
climatic variables as well as studies on impacts and vulnerability to climate change.
Adapting measures for reduction of negative climate change impacts prepared by involved
socio-economic sectors and subjects can be considered as a further step. New
version of adaptive options will be published in 2013.
Key words: climatic trends, vulnerability to climate change, adapting options
INTRODUCTION
Global, hemispheric and regional temperatures have been increased significantly
in the last 30/40 years. In Slovakia, it makes 1.7 °C since 1981 (Fig. 1), 1.8 °C since
90