Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

equal 1°C, it is not that alarming, but if we suppose it to rise constantly, as it is predicted
for 2090–2099, it becomes much more disturbing. The highest temperature
growth is predicted for the Arctic polar region. Of course, in both cases there
are differences in temperature distribution, as can be seen in the graphs showing
global mean temperature including Sahel region (fig. 4). Without discussing
the scenarios in detail, two important facts must be noticed. Firstly, most of the
climatic change predictions assume that the air temperature is the most important,
often the only characteristic that matters. The distribution of precipitation
is seldom taken into account, not to mention the lack of interest in other climate
elements. Secondly, and probably more importantly, the forecasted values often
vary enormously, as they depend on the model and emission scenarios that have
been used while estimating them. Consequently, the so-called cluster scenarios,
which make use of a range of models, are formulated.
Fig. 4. Projections
of surface global air
temperature (according
to IPCC 2007)
To conclude the deliberation on climate change scenarios, attention should be
drawn to a vast uncertainty on the correctness of estimated values. Often only experience,
sometimes even intuition, allow to draw proper conclusions. The models
have to undergo tests and simulations successfully, but they stand for only an
approximation of the real word. The interpretation of their products must then be
very cautious, especially because the causes of climatic changes, the relationship
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