Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

CONCLUSIONS
Assessment of vulnerability of natural ecosystems and different socio-economic
sectors due to climate change contains a plenty of items and characteristics.
This paper is devoted mainly to one (but very important) climate change impact –
evaporation change and drought risk (dependent significantly on air temperature
and precipitation changes). Fig. 12 shows that increase in mean air temperature
can dramatically change the saturation deficit (D) and consequently also potential
evapotranspiration even at the same relative humidity (U). Climate warming and
decrease of soil moisture will surely result in decrease of growing season relative
humidity, mainly in warmer regions. That is why the question of evapotranspiration
change is very important on most of global continents. Adaptation options
to reduce negative and utilize positive climate change impacts in Slovakia have
been published in the 5th National Communication of the SR (2009). Drought and
flood risks are the most important.
Figure 12. Dependence
of saturated water vapor
pressure (e*) and water
vapor pressure at 50%
relative air humidity (U)
on air temperature (T)
in low altitudes (about
1000 hPa air pressure).
Saturation deficit (D) is
increasing by about 6%
at 1°C warming. Potential
evapotranspiration
depends on D by formula Eo = kiD, where ki is coefficient different in various geobotanic
zones and in various months during the year. Increase of e* by about 6% at
1°C warming means that in case of cyclonic and convective weather events potential
precipitation totals should rise also at least by 6%, but because of atmospheric
dynamics acceleration at rising T and e* the real increase in precipitation is even
by 10% at 1°C rise.
Acknowledgements: SHMI measured data, outputs of GCMs and RCMs from
three modeling centers and the results of project VEGA 1/0992/12 were used.
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