Zmena klímy – možný dopad (nielen) na obyvateľstvo - Prohuman

As it can be seen from the Table 15 the greatest increase of potential evapotranspiration
was designed by the regional models RCMs MPI and KNMI (IPCC
SRES A1B emission scenario). These results are in accordance with up to present
observations and calculations of drought evolution during the 20th century over
the globe (Fig. 10). Central Europe belongs among the regions with increase of
aridity according to Palmer index PDSI (IPCC, 2007). Scenarios of regional air temperature
changes have several degrees Celsius range by the end of the 21st century,
model outputs using moderate A1B SRES emission scenario represent middle values
within mentioned range (Fig. 11, IPCC, 2007).
As greater is mean air temperature increase as higher probability is for the decrease
of soil moisture due to the increase of potential evapotranspiration. Fig. 11
indicates that such development is the most probable in the majority of continental
regions over the globe. On the other side increase of air temperature at cyclonic
synoptic situations results in up to 10% rise of precipitation per 1°C warming
(Lapin et al., 2003).
Figure 10. Geographical
pattern of Palmer drought
index (PDSI) change during
the 20th century (1901–
2000, red color represent
drought risk increase, blue
decrease, IPCC, 2007).
Figure 11. Geographical
pattern of mean annual
surface atmosphere
warming (in °C) according
to set of General
Circulation Models by the
IPCC SRES A1B emission
scenario in 2090–2099
compared to 1980–1999
(IPCC, 2007).
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