sustainable development 20 years on from the ... - José Eli da Veiga

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Box II.2
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PROJECTED TRENDS IN PRIMARY
PRODUCTION CAPACITY AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Studies predict major changes in the region’s agricultural, forestry and aquaculture production capacity as a result of
climate change. In particular, they suggest that agricultural productivity in South America could fall by between
12% and 50% by 2100. In Mexico, there could be an even greater loss of economic productivity in 30% to 85% of
farms. In Brazil, an 18% drop in agricultural productivity would increase the country’s rural poverty by
3.2 percentage points (De La Torre, Fajnzylber and Nash, <strong>20</strong>08).
Agriculture Forestry Fisheries and aquaculture
Increased yields of some crops (soy
bean, wheat) in temperate zones
(such as south-east Latin America),
as well as some permanent crops.
One-third drop in productivity in
tropical and subtropical regions as a
result of increased heat stress and
drier soils.
Increased salinization and
desertification of agricultural land
in arid zones (central and northern
Chile and north-east Brazil).
More frequent floods and droughts
will affect production. Rain-fed
agriculture in semi-arid zones will
face a growing risk of crop losses.
Irrigation will be threatened by
salinization, increased flooding and
rising sea levels.
In temperate zones, rangeland
productivity could increase,
benefiting livestock production.
Tropical forests are likely to be
harder hit by changes in water
availability in the soil (seasonal
drought, soil erosion and nutrient
losses) and by CO 2 fertilization
than by high temperatures.
Trend towards the ‘savannization’
of the eastern Amazon. A higher
risk of forest loss in Central
America and the Amazon.
More frequent wildfires in the
Amazon.
More surface runoff in northwestern
parts of South America and
less runoff in Central America.
A longer dry season will make it
harder for forests to become reestablished.
The risk of wildfires is likely to
increase.
Mangroves will be endangered in
many parts of the Caribbean and in
parts of Central America and South
America.
More frequent storms, hurricanes
and cyclones will affect fisheries
and aquaculture in coastal
communities, especially in the
Caribbean subregion.
Reduced water availability resulting
from the shrinking of some Andean
glaciers could affect some
aquaculture production
technologies.
The distribution of some fish
species in tropical and subtropical
seas could move southwards.
Primary production in the tropical
Pacific could fall owing to
increased stratification and reduced
nutrient availability.
Low-lying areas could suffer the
effects of rising sea levels, which
would alter the morphology of
coastal areas, coral reefs and
mangroves, as well as the location
of fish.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), “Climate change implications for fisheries and
aquaculture. Overview of the current scientific knowledge”, Fisheries and Aquaculture Scientific Paper, No. 530,
<strong>20</strong>09; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change <strong>20</strong>07: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, <strong>20</strong>07; A. De la Torre, P. Fajnzylber and J. Nash, Desarrollo con menos
carbono: respuestas latinoamericanas al desafío del cambio climático, Washington, D.C., World Bank, <strong>20</strong>08.