sustainable development 20 years on from the ... - José Eli da Veiga

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In Central America, which includes some of the countries in the region that are most vulnerable
to climate change, the frequency of floods has doubled in the past two decades (1990-<strong>20</strong>08) compared
with the period 1970-1989. The frequency of tropical storms and major hurricanes has also increased
significantly, striking countries that were unaffected or hardly affected between 1970 and 1989 (see
figure II.2) (ECLAC, <strong>20</strong>10b).
Figure II.2
CENTRAL AMERICA: MAIN EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, 1970-<strong>20</strong>08
(Number of recorded events)
<strong>20</strong>
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
A. Floods
16
B. Tropical storms and hurricanes
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Belize
0
Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Belize Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama
1970-1989 1990-<strong>20</strong>08
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), The Economics of Climate Change in Central
America. Summary <strong>20</strong>10 (LC/MEX/L.978), Mexico City, ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico.
The increasing incidence of extreme weather events will have by far the greatest impact on the
lives, livelihoods and assets of the poorest sectors of the population. Table I.4 in chapter I showed the
magnitude of the impact of disasters in the past 40 <strong>years</strong>. Risk management targeting the most
disadvantaged groups, which are more vulnerable to risk, is closely related to the fight against poverty. It
is estimated that the costs would be particularly high in countries with the worst urban deprivation and
high dependency on agriculture. In Central America, the agriculture sector is a driver of the economy,
representing 18% of total GDP including agro-industry, and will be one of the sectors most affected by
climate change. According to initial estimates aggregated for the region, not including the effect of
adaptation measures, under the trend scenario for GHG emissions (scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)), by 2100 the agricultural index could have fallen by around 9%. Of
particular concern are estimates of possible large reductions in the production of staple grains, such as
maize and beans, with a knock-on effect on food safety and the livelihoods of small farmers (ECLAC,
<strong>20</strong>10b). In many Caribbean countries, agriculture also plays a very important role and their geographical
situation means that these countries will be severely exposed to the impact of climate change on
agriculture, compounded by the effect of a possible rise in sea level.
Box II.2 describes some of the potential effects of climate change on key economic sectors in
the region.