NCC Ltd (NAGCON) - ICICI Direct

Result Update 

Rating matrix 

Rating : Buy 

Target : | 48 

Target Period : 12-15 months 

Potential Upside : 22% 

Key Financials 

| crore FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E 

Net sales 5073.7 5248.5 5995.5 6917.4 

EBITDA 487.6 397.3 471.6 558.5 

Net profit 163.4 36.0 81.4 100.8 

Valuation summary 

FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E 

EPS (|) 6.4 1.4 3.2 3.9 

Adj. PE(x) 1.2 5.5 2.4 2.0 

Target PE(x) 2.6 12.0 5.3 4.3 

EV/EBITDA(x) 6.9 8.0 7.2 6.7 

P/BV(x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 

RoNW(%) 7.1 1.5 3.3 4.0 

RoCE(%) 9.7 6.6 7.8 8.7 

Stock data 

Market Capitalisation 

Debt 

Cash 

| 1005 crore 

| 2571 crore 

| 64 crore 

EV 

| 3512 crore 

52 week H/L 74/28 

Equity capital 

| 51 Crore 

Face value | 2 

DII Holding (%) 6.8 

FII Holding (%) 41.5 

Price movement 

6,100 

4,900 

3,700 

2,500 

Aug-11 

Analyst’s name 

Nov-11 

Price (R.H.S) 

Feb-12 

Deepak Purswani, CFA 

deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com 

Bhupendra Tiwary 

bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com 

May-12 

Nifty (L.H.S) 

90 

60 

30 

0 

Aug-12 

WHAT’S CHANGED… 

August 10, 2012 

NCC Ltd (NAGCON) 

| 39 

PRICE TARGET........................................................................... Changed from | 36 to | 48 

EPS (FY13E)............................................................................. Changed from | 2.6 to | 3.2 

EPS (FY14E)............................................................................. Changed from | 3.3 to | 3.9 

RATING....................................................................................... Changed from Hold to Buy 

Focuses on debt paring through asset sale… 

NCC continued its superior execution in Q1FY13 reporting a topline of 

| 1472.1 crore vs. our estimate of | 1200 crore (also aided by booking of 

revenues from the Krishnapatnam power project EPC of | 82 crore). 

Consequently, the company posted a PAT of | 16.6 crore vs. our estimate 

of | 6.6 crore. The order currently stands at | 20,520 crore (order inflows 

of | 2000 crore in Q1FY13) implying TTM order book to bill of 3.7x. The 

management has guided for 10-15% topline growth in FY13, which 

seems achievable considering the pace of execution. Furthermore, the 

company is looking to bring down its debt levels by | 500 crore through 

stake sale in BOT projects. If this materialises, that would be a key trigger 

for the performance of the stock. Comforted by a pick-up in execution 

and management plan to pare debts, we assign BUY on the stock, which 

is available at attractive valuation of 0.4x FY13 P/BV. 

Strong execution; guidance of 10-15% topline growth achievable… 

NCC’s topline grew 29% YoY | 1472.1 crore (our estimate: - | 1200 crore) 

led by superior execution and booking of revenues from the 

Krishnapatnam power project EPC (| 82 crore). The EBITDA margin at 

7.9% was largely in line with our estimate of 7.8%. The company, 

consequently, posted a net profit of | 16.6 crore (our estimate: | 6.6 

crore). The management has guided for 10-15% topline growth in FY13, 

which seems achievable considering the pace of execution. 

Healthy order book, order inflows worth | 2000 crore during Q1FY13 

NCC secured orders worth ~| 2000 crore during the quarter to close the 

order book at | 20,520 crore, implying TTM order book to bill of 3.7x. We 

highlight that for FY13 while the management has guided for order inflow 

of | 8,500 crore, we have built in order inflows worth | 7000 crore given 

the challenging environment. 

Upgrade to BUY led by improved execution and focus on debt paring… 

NCC’s execution has shown a major improvement in the last couple of 

quarters. Given the pick-up in execution, no further equity commitment 

towards subsidiaries (it has already invested | 370 crore and does not 

expect further outflow in the next 12 months) and the management’s 

focus on paring its net debt from | 2507 crore to | 2000 crore (through 

stake sale in BOT project particularly in power project stake sale) along 

with an attractive valuation of 0.4x FY13 P/BV and 2.4x FY13 adjusted P/E, 

we assign a BUY rating with an SoTP target price of | 48/share. 

Exhibit 1: Financial Performance 

| crore Q1FY13 Q1FY13E Q1FY12 Q4FY12 YoY Gr (%) QoQ Gr (%) 

Net sales 1472.1 1200.0 1140.9 1753.8 29.0 -16.1 

EBITDA 116.7 94.1 115.8 101.1 0.8 15.4 

EBITDA Margin (%) 7.9 7.8 10.2 5.8 - 222 bps 216 bps 

Depreciation 22.5 23.4 19.7 21.7 14.1 3.7 

Net Interest 71.1 63.3 64.0 68.4 11.2 4.0 

PAT 16.6 6.6 23.3 10.8 -28.6 54.0 

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research 

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Key Assumptions… 

Exhibit 2: Key assumptions 

| crore FY12 FY13E FY14E 

Order inflow 10,116 7,000 7,750 

Order Book 20,196 20,761 20,767 

Execution rate- Average (%) 28.9 29.3 33.3 


The topline came at | 1472.1 crore vs. our estimate of 

| 1200 crore led by superior execution and booking of 

revenues from power project EPC (| 82 crore) 

Strong execution leads to better show… 

• NCC’s topline came at | 1472.1 crore vs. our estimate of | 1200 

crore led by superior execution and booking of revenues from the 

power project EPC (| 82 crore) 

• The EBITDA margin at 7.9% was largely in line with our estimates of 

7.8% 

• The company, consequently, posted a net profit of | 16.6 crore vs. 

our estimate of net profit of | 6.6 crore 

Order book strong...inflows worth | 2000 crore in Q1FY13 

• NCC secured orders worth ~| 2000 crore during the quarter to 

close the order book at | 20,520 crore at the end of the quarter, 

implying TTM order book to bill of 3.7x 

• We highlight that for FY13 while the management has guided for 

order inflow of | 8,500 crore, we have built in order inflows worth 

| 7000 crore 

Exhibit 3: Order book strong, execution pick-up a positive… 

22,000 

4.4 

21990 

4.5 

NCC secured orders worth ~| 2000 crore during the 

quarter to close the order book at | 20,520 crore at the end 

of the quarter, implying TTM order book to bill of 3.7x 

(| crore) 

20,000 

18,000 

20196 

3.8 

20520 

3.7 

4.1 

3.7 

(x) 

16,000 

161803.2 161893.2 

165703.3 

3.3 

14,000 

Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 

2.9 

Order Book (| crore) 

Order book-to-bill ratio (RHS) 


Exhibit 4: Buildings, new divisions contribute ~64% of order book 

Buildings and new divisions (including power orders 

worth~| 5200 crore) contributed ~64% of the order book 

100 

75 

(%) 

50 

25 

0 

13 11 8 8 9 

19 18 

10 12 

36 38 33 

13 11 

9 10 

10 

4 4 

12 

2 

11 15 

2 

38 39 

30 28 31 

Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 

Buildings Transportation Water Electrical 

Irrigation New Divisions * International 

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research * includes power, metals and mining 

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

NCC has been short-listed by the Government of Andhra 

Pradesh for ~ 500 MW at ~| 3.7 per unit. Currently, it is 

also looking to participate in case 1 bidding by various 

state governments like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka to tie up 

70% of the power generated 

Subsidiaries’ Performance 

Subsidiaries (| crore) Revenues PAT 

NCC International (Muscat) 206.9 3.7 

NCC Dubai 5.5 1.7 

NCC Urban 54.4 0.8 

NCC Infrastructure 0.2 -2.3 

NCC Infra Mauritius 6.0 2.0 

BOT projects Revenues PAT 

OB Infra 22.5 0.5 

Western UP 22.4 -1.1 

Bangalore Elevated 7.9 -3.2 

Pondicherry 1.5 -2.2 

Brindavan Infrastructure 5.0 1.4 

Krishnapatnam power project update 

After the financial closure of the Krishnapatnam Project, NCC booked 

revenues worth | 82 crore in Q1FY13. In terms of coal linkage, NCC has 

also transferred the Sompeta project coal linkages for ~70% of coal 

requirement to the Krishnapatnam project, the LoI for which has been 

received by the company from Coal India. Furthermore, the company 

has also taken a stake in a greenfield Indonesian coal mine with capacity 

of ~ 30 MT, which should suffice for coal requirement of 10 years. The 

same would entail an investment of ~ US$10 million out of which ~ 

US$2 million has already been invested by NCC. 

In terms of PPA, NCC has been short-listed by the Government of 

Andhra Pradesh for ~ 500 MW at ~| 3.7/unit. Currently, it is also looking 

to participate in case 1 bidding by various state governments like Tamil 

Nadu and Karnataka to tie up 70% of the power generated within the 

next one year, which is a pre-requisite as per the terms with lenders. 

The total project cost of 1,320 MW project is ~ | 7000 with debt to equity 

in the ratio of 3:1. NCC’s share of equity contribution is ~ | 970 crore 

over four years. The company has so far infused | 370 crore of equity as 

required for financial closure and would not require any equity infusion 

over one year. NCC is also looking for a stake sale in the project in order 

to meet its equity contribution further. 

Himachal Sorang power project update 

The completion of the Himachal Sorang Hydro power project has been 

delayed due to local issues. It is now expected to commence operation 

from December 2012 vs. end of FY12 guided earlier. The company is 

also looking to dilute its stake in the project to some PE players (as 

reported in the media). 

Debtor days improve… 

The net working capital days (ex-cash) stood at 177 days in Q1FY13 vs. 

182 days in Q4FY12 aided by an improvement in debtor days, which 

have come down to 88 days in Q1FY13 against 91 days in Q4FY12. The 

gross debt level, however, at | 2571 crore vs. | 2234 crore has risen by 

| 337 crore sequentially. The company hopes to reduce it by | 500 crore 

by FY13 by a stake sale in BOT projects and real estate. 

Exhibit 5: Working capital, net debt to equity trend 

240 

1.5 

There has been an improvement in debtor days, which 

180 

1.0 

1.0 

1.2 

have come down to 88 days in Q1FY13 as against 91 days 

in Q4FY12 

(days) 

120 

204 

1.0 

206 

0.9 

182 177 

0.9 

0.6 

(x) 

60 

0.3 

0 

FY11 M9FY12 FY12 Q1FY13 

0.0 

Net working capital (ex cash) 

Debt/Equity (RHS) 



Valuations 

We have incorporated the Q1FY13 results and, therefore, built in superior 

execution driven by power segment execution and comfort from last few 

quarters’ execution. Consequently, we have upgraded our FY13E and 

FY14E earnings by ~21% and 20%, respectively. 

Exhibit 6: Change in estimates 

Particulars 

FY13E 

FY14E 

Old New % Change Old New % Change 

Revenue 5,714.1 5995.5 4.9 6,600.2 6917.4 4.8 

EBITDA 448.1 471.6 5.2 558.5 558.5 (0.0) 

EBITDA Margin % 7.8 7.9 2 bps 8.5 8.1 -39 bps 

PAT 67.5 81.4 20.6 84.0 100.8 20.0 

EPS 2.6 3.2 20.6 3.3 3.9 20.0 


NCC’s execution has shown a major improvement in the last couple of 

quarters. Given the pick-up in execution, no further equity commitment 

towards subsidiaries (it has already invested | 370 crore and does not 

expect further outflow in the next 12 months) and the management’s 

focus on paring its net debt from | 2507 crore to | 2000 crore (through 

stake sale in BOT project particularly in power project stake sale) along 

with an attractive valuation of 0.4x FY13 P/B and 2.4x FY13 adjusted P/E, 

we have assigned a BUY rating with a SoTP target price of | 48/share. 

Exhibit 7: SOTP Valuation - NCC 

Entity 

Value 

(| crore) 

Per share 

(|) 

Comment 

Our target price for NCC is | 48/share based on the SOTP 

methodology 

Domestic Construction Business 2,829 110 6x FY13 EV/EBITDA 

International Construction Business 120 5 5x FY13 Earning estimates 

BOT Road 298 12 

Brindavan Infrastructure 11 0.4 

Bangalore Elevated 80 3.1 

OB Infra 52 2.0 

Western UP Expressway 105 4.1 

Pondicherry-Trindivanam 50 1.9 

Value BOT projects based on FCFE 

metholdogy. We have assumed CoE of 

13% for annuity & 14% for toll based 

projects. 

Investment in real estate 90 4 

Value at 0.5x P/BV due to lack of 

clarity on NCC Harmony 

Investment in power 300 12 At .8x P/BV 

Less:Net Debt (2,397) (93) FY13 net debt 

Fair Value 48 


Exhibit 8: Valuation metrics 

Sales 

(| crore) 

Sales Gr 

(%) 

EPS 

(Rs) 

EPS Gr 

(%) 

Adj P/E 

(x) 

P/BV 

(x) 

RoNW 

(%) 

FY11 5073.7 6.2 6.4 -15.0 1.2 0.4 7.1 9.7 

FY12 5248.5 3.4 1.4 -78.0 5.5 0.4 1.5 6.6 

FY13E 5995.5 14.2 3.2 126.1 2.4 0.4 3.3 7.8 

FY14E 6917.4 15.4 3.9 23.9 2.0 0.4 4.0 8.7 


RoCE 

(%) 


Financial summary 

Profit and loss statement 

(| Crore) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E 

Total operating Income 5,073.7 5,248.5 5,995.5 6,917.4 

Growth (%) 6.2 3.4 14.2 15.4 

Op. Expenditure 4,586.1 4,851.1 5,523.9 6,359.0 

EBITDA 487.6 397.3 471.6 558.5 

Growth (%) 0.7 -18.5 18.7 18.4 

Depreciation 68.5 83.0 97.3 108.0 

EBIT 419.1 314.3 374.3 450.5 

Interest 168.2 272.7 270.7 313.9 

Other Income 14.6 11.3 18.1 14.6 

Extraordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

PBT 265.6 52.9 121.6 151.1 

Tax 102.1 16.9 40.3 50.3 

Rep. PAT before MI 163.4 36.0 81.4 100.8 

Minority Interest (MI) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Rep. PAT after MI 163.4 36.0 81.4 100.8 

Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Adj. Net Profit 163.4 36.0 81.4 100.8 

Growth (%) -15.0 -78.0 126.1 23.9 

EPS (|) 6.4 1.4 3.2 3.9 


Cash flow statement 

(| Crore) FY11 FY12P FY13E FY14E 

Net Profit before Tax 265.6 52.9 121.6 151.1 

Other Non Cash Exp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Depreciation 68.5 83.0 97.3 108.0 

Direct Tax Paid 160.0 16.9 40.3 50.3 

Other Items 159.6 284.1 290.4 328.4 

CF before change in WC 333.7 380.3 429.7 508.1 

Inc./Dec. In WC -567.8 267.6 -160.4 -379.8 

CF from Operations -234.0 647.8 269.3 128.4 

Pur. of Fix Assets -190.4 -183.0 -160.6 -100.6 

Pur. of Inv -247.3 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 

Others -56.7 11.4 19.7 14.6 

CF from Investing -494.4 -221.5 -190.9 -136.0 

Inc./(Dec.) in Debt 953.2 -250.0 250.0 300.0 

Inc./(Dec.) in Net Worth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Others -284.7 -275.2 -282.4 -328.3 

CF from Financing 668.5 -525.2 -32.4 -28.3 

Net Cash Flow -60.0 -98.9 46.0 -36.0 

Opening Cash 199.7 139.7 40.8 86.8 

Closing Cash 139.7 40.8 86.8 50.8 


Balance sheet 

(| Crore) FY11 FY12P FY13E FY14E 

Liabilities 

Equity Capital 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3 

Reserves & Surplus 2,327.4 2,367.8 2,448.1 2,534.4 

Shareholder's Fund 2,378.7 2,419.1 2,499.4 2,585.7 

Borrowings 1,212.1 1,212.1 1,212.1 1,212.1 

Unsecured Loans 1,272.0 1,022.0 1,272.0 1,572.0 

Deferred Tax Liability 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 

Source of Funds 4,893.5 4,683.9 5,014.2 5,400.6 

Assets 

Gross Block 921.2 1,103.5 1,263.5 1,363.5 

Less: Acc. Depreciation 247.4 332.1 429.8 537.2 

Net Block 673.7 771.4 833.7 826.3 

Capital WIP 46.9 46.9 46.9 46.9 

Net Fixed Assets 720.6 818.3 880.6 873.3 

Intangible Assets 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 

Investments 1,200.8 1,250.8 1,300.8 1,350.8 

Cash 139.7 40.8 86.8 50.8 

Trade Receivables 1,453.6 1,307.0 1,577.6 1,749.6 

Loans & Advances 2,446.9 3,450.0 3,837.5 4,314.1 

Inventory 896.0 1,234.0 1,436.7 1,606.5 

Total Current Asset 4,945.5 6,040.8 6,947.6 7,730.0 

Current Liab. & Prov. 1,974.3 3,436.0 4,136.4 4,575.1 

Net Current Asset 2,971.2 2,604.8 2,811.2 3,154.9 

P&L Account 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Application of Funds 4,893.5 4,674.9 4,993.6 5,380.0 


Key ratios 

FY11 FY12P FY13E FY14E 

Per share data (|) 

EPS 6.4 1.4 3.2 3.9 

Cash EPS 9.2 4.8 7.2 8.3 

BV 92.7 94.3 97.4 100.8 

DPS 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 

Cash Per Share 5.4 1.6 3.4 2.0 

Operating Ratios (%) 

EBITDA Margin 9.6 7.6 7.9 8.1 

PBT / Total Operating income 5.2 1.0 2.0 2.2 

PAT Margin 3.2 0.7 1.4 1.5 

Inventory days 64 86 87 85 

Debtor days 105 91 96 92 

Creditor days 99 96 88 88 

Return Ratios (%) 

RoE 7.1 1.5 3.3 4.0 

RoCE 9.7 6.6 7.8 8.7 

RoIC 10.0 6.7 7.8 8.8 

Valuation Ratios (x) 

Adjusted P/E 1.2 5.5 2.4 2.0 

EV / EBITDA 6.9 8.0 7.2 6.7 

EV / Net Sales 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 

Price to Book Value 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 

Solvency Ratios 

Debt/EBITDA 5.1 5.6 5.3 5.0 

Debt / Equity 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 

Current Ratio 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 



ICICIdirect.com coverage universe 

CMP 

M Cap 

EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) RoE (%) 

Sector / Company (|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E 

Construction 

HCC (HINCON) 17 15 Sell 1,047 -1.9 -2.5 -0.2 NA NA NA 12.4 14.4 10.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 -15.7 -9.8 -1.0 

IVRCL (IVRINF) 44 44 Hold 1,184 0.9 2.4 4.0 52.0 19.6 11.7 10.1 7.9 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 3.1 5.0 

NCC (NAGCON) 39 48 Buy 1,005 1.4 3.2 3.9 5.5 2.4 2.0 8.0 7.2 6.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.5 3.3 4.0 

Simplex Infra (SIMCON) 201 301 Buy 998 18.0 21.9 27.6 13.3 10.9 8.7 6.1 5.6 5.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 7.8 8.6 9.8 

Supreme Infra (SUPINF) 292 316 Buy 488 55.3 59.3 76.3 4.1 3.2 3.2 4.9 4.1 3.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 25.0 21.3 21.7 

Unity Infra (UNIINF) 45 64 Buy 334 14.0 14.4 16.9 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 14.8 13.4 13.9 

Exhibit 9: Recommendation History 

80 

60 

40 

20 

0 

Aug-11 

Oct-11 

Nov-11 

Jan-12 

Feb-12 

Apr-12 

May-12 

Jun-12 

Aug-12 

Price 

Target Price 

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research 

Exhibit 10: Recent Releases 

Date Event CMP Target Price Rating 

1-Jun-11 Q4FY11 Result Update 87 98 Buy 

17-Aug-11 Q1FY12 Result Update 55 74 Buy 

9-Nov-11 Q2FY12 Result Update 55 64 Buy 

6-Feb-12 Q3FY12 Result Update 62 55 Sell 

30-May-12 Q4FY12 Result Update 32 36 Buy 

6-Jul-12 Q1FY13 Result Preview 45 36 Hold 



RATING RATIONALE 

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns 

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them 

as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional 

target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. 

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; 

Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; 

Hold: Up to +/-10%; 

Sell: -10% or more; 

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com 

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, 

ICICI Securities Limited, 

1 st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, 

Road No. 7, MIDC, 

Andheri (East) 

Mumbai – 400 093 

research@icicidirect.com 

ANALYST CERTIFICATION 

We /I, Deepak Purswani CFA, PGDM (FINANCE) Bhupendra Tiwary MBA (FINANCE) research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this 

research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to 

the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc. 

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