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Allegiance – The Past and the Future 15<br />

lute <strong>number</strong> of emigrants from Europe, and not only because of emigration from<br />

Ireland. The failure of so many emigrants to take up the formal citizenship of a<br />

non-European country suggests that allegiance was not especially valued, but<br />

regar<strong>de</strong>d by large <strong>number</strong>s as som<strong>et</strong>hing to avoid in all but the most formal sense.<br />

This impression is greatly strengthened when it is remembered that the <strong>number</strong> of<br />

emigrants from European states to Europe was much greater over the same period<br />

than thirty-four million.<br />

A large body of historical work has concerned itself with the question of how<br />

nin<strong>et</strong>eenth-century European states used a mixture of policy, political symbolism,<br />

and institutions such as primary education and a conscript army to instil the concept<br />

of allegiance to a central national state into their 'subjects'. Although the general<br />

relevance of this sort of work to post-1945 European soci<strong>et</strong>ies is evi<strong>de</strong>nt, its<br />

specific m<strong>et</strong>hodological value as an explanatory historical tool in the post-war<br />

period is very limited, because of the marked change in the nature of <strong>de</strong>mocratic<br />

party politics, and in their relationship, of a type, scope and scale utterly different<br />

from earlier periods, to newspapers, radio and television. Its relevance is however<br />

diminished above all by the much greater complexity of the mutual <strong>de</strong>mands ma<strong>de</strong><br />

on each other by government and voters in post-1945 <strong>de</strong>mocracies. Some elements<br />

of this analysis of nin<strong>et</strong>eenth century practice are still valuable, of course. Until the<br />

last ten years the publicly-owned media and the measure of public control over private<br />

media meant that government still carried on the national educational role of<br />

the nin<strong>et</strong>eenth century state. But the choice of mo<strong>de</strong>ls and images of education for<br />

the nation grew so rapidly after 1950 that to study the role of single institutions<br />

over the long term in shaping national allegiance – as historians of the nin<strong>et</strong>eenth<br />

century have done – would be m<strong>et</strong>hodologically unrewarding.<br />

It is a reasonable assumption that allegiance still remains partly d<strong>et</strong>ermined by<br />

the ability of national institutions to protect the citizen, wh<strong>et</strong>her from internal or<br />

external threats. But all post-1945 historical study shows that what the citizen has<br />

<strong>de</strong>man<strong>de</strong>d as 'security' from the state has wi<strong>de</strong>ned in range and complexity to the<br />

point where protection in the sense of physical saf<strong>et</strong>y has rarely been that <strong>de</strong>finition<br />

of security which had the highest priority at critical moments of political choice. In<br />

short, allegiance since 1945 is given, sold or bought within a complex pattern of<br />

relationships b<strong>et</strong>ween individuals, families and government which would require a<br />

wholly different analysis from that used for earlier periods. The fundamental<br />

questions for the history of European integration are why allegiance to the Communities<br />

grew, and wh<strong>et</strong>her the present allegiance to the institutions of the European<br />

Union is permanently subsidiary to, and <strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt on, or will eventually<br />

replace, that ten<strong>de</strong>red to national or regional government.<br />

A pragmatic analysis of that question should probably first concentrate on those<br />

issues which have been shown to mainly influence voters' choices in general and<br />

European elections in all member-states. Except in moments of perceived danger,<br />

or when issues relating to one dominant personality have emerged, personal and<br />

family income and the perspective of future income through the life-cycle have<br />

been the major d<strong>et</strong>erminants of voting. This may mean that they are also major<br />

d<strong>et</strong>erminants of allegiance. Since 1945 it has been increasingly difficult to separate

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