the PUZZLE THE OIL - Elliott Wave International

TOPICS
> This questions will be discussed in detail
WILL OIL PRICES EXCEED $ 100 PER BARREL OVER THE
NEXT FIVE YEARS?
The real Oil Puzzle is not supply, demand, and prices; rather, it is what people believe and expect
about supply, demand, and, thus, prices. And there are not enough actual facts to go
around. So individual assumptions, prejudices, hopes and fears have to be mixed with the limited
facts available to create a belief in what is real about the direction of the price of oil.
The one “fact” that everyone seems to agree upon is that the future demand for energy is not
going to decline. Under this assumption the oil price becomes simply a question of supply intimately
intertwined with the two associated Big Questions:
HAVE GLOBAL OIL RESERVES “PEAKED?”
ARE THERE REALISTIC ALTERNATIVES TO OIL?
There are many diverging answers to these questions, depending on the views and information
access of individuals. None of them are basically incorrect, rather some answers are simply
more likely than others. As a conference participant, you will see all plausible scenarios, along with
tools for evaluating their relative likelihood.
At the conference, you will learn how to separate the fact from the fiction in the Oil Puzzle, so
as to estimate realistically the situation for you and your business.
Of special interest are the risk management and the hedging instruments required to manage
your risk from oil price variations. You will receive a full exposition of the possibilities of different
instruments and risk-minimization concepts at the conference.
The complicated network of interactions among all players in the “game of oil” will be analyzed by
creation of an electronic copy of the entire oil industry. This “surrogate” Oil World then serves as
a basis for exploring What If? questions, such as
> What if natural gas takes a major share of the energy market
in the next decade? How does that impact my company/refinery/
country/...
> What if oil prices do rise to 100 $ per barrel? What will be the
economic, political, social consequences of this event?
> What if new reserves are discovered in China? How will that
influence the oil industry in the Persian Gulf?
> What if ...
A wise man once said, “A reasonable probability is the only certainty.”
And this leads to the goal of this conference:
Participants will be able to react to all conceivable future scenarios of
the oil market as precise as possible and flexible.