Christoph Mueller, Aer Lingus CEO
Christoph Mueller, Aer Lingus CEO
Christoph Mueller, Aer Lingus CEO
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<strong>Christoph</strong> <strong>Mueller</strong>, <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> <strong>CEO</strong><br />
26 August 2010
Disclaimer | Forward Looking Information<br />
Certain information included in these statements is forward-looking and involves risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ<br />
materially from those expressed or implied by the forward looking statements.<br />
Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, projections relating to results of operations and financial conditions and the Company's<br />
plans and objectives for future operations, including, without limitation, discussions of the Company's Business Plan programs, expected future<br />
revenues, financing plans and expected expenditures and divestments. All forward-looking statements in this report are based upon information<br />
known to the Company on the date of this report. Due to such uncertainties and risks, you should not place undue reliance on such forwardlooking<br />
statements, which speak only as at the date of this report. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any<br />
forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law or by any appropriate<br />
regulatory authority.<br />
It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could cause the Company's forward looking statements to<br />
be incorrect or that could otherwise have a material adverse effect on the future operations or results of an airline operating in the global<br />
economy. Among the factors that are subject to change and could significantly impact the Company’s expected results are the fuel costs,<br />
competition from new and existing carriers, costs associated with environmental, safety and security measures, actions of governments and<br />
regulatory authorities, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport access and charges, industrial relations, the economic<br />
environment of the airline industry and the general economic environment in the markets to which the Company operates.<br />
Slide 2
Welcome & introduction
Who we are<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> overview<br />
• Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland<br />
• We will celebrate our 75 th birthday in 2011<br />
• We operate 44 aircraft on routes to destinations in the UK, Europe<br />
and North America<br />
• We carried 10.4 million passengers in 2009<br />
• We connect Ireland with the world by offering the best product in<br />
the Irish airline market at a competitive price to passengers<br />
• We serve both leisure and business travellers with a quality core<br />
product that can be augmented through a la carte paid options<br />
• Unlike some low cost operators, we serve central airport locations<br />
enhancing connectivity options for our passengers<br />
• We offer this airport selection at more competitive fares than most<br />
legacy carriers<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
4
Phases in the <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> story<br />
The recent<br />
past<br />
Immediate<br />
actions to<br />
address issues<br />
Delivering<br />
results in H1<br />
2010<br />
Re-positioning<br />
Profitable<br />
growth<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
5
The recent past
Yr-on-yr movements in GDP & passenger traffic remain linked – except<br />
for Ireland<br />
Dublin Airport ¹ London Heathrow & Stansted ¹<br />
0.0%<br />
(5.0%)<br />
(10.0%)<br />
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1<br />
2009 2010<br />
2.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
(2.0%)<br />
(4.0%)<br />
(6.0%)<br />
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1<br />
2009 2010<br />
(8.0%)<br />
(15.0%)<br />
(10.0%)<br />
Irish GDP<br />
Dublin<br />
UK GDP<br />
London Heathrow & Stantsed<br />
Frankfurt Airport ¹ Charles de Gaulle & Orly ¹<br />
5.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
(5.0%)<br />
(10.0%)<br />
(15.0%)<br />
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1<br />
2009 2010<br />
0.0%<br />
(5.0%)<br />
(10.0%)<br />
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1<br />
2009 2010<br />
German GDP<br />
Frankfurt<br />
French GDP<br />
CDG & Orly<br />
10.0%<br />
5.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
(5.0%)<br />
(10.0%)<br />
(15.0%)<br />
Schipol Airport ¹<br />
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1<br />
2009 2010<br />
Dutch GDP Schipol<br />
Comment<br />
• GDP trends continue to correlate closely<br />
with passenger traffic in most European<br />
territories except Ireland<br />
• Outlook remains uncertain & IATA note<br />
that the “post recession re-bound may be<br />
slowing”<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
¹ Growth compared to same quarter of previous year<br />
7
Core Irish market conditions remain difficult<br />
Comment<br />
• Demand conditions remain weak<br />
in <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong>’ core Irish market.<br />
Change in Passenger Numbers May 2010<br />
Across all airports in the country (ranked by market size)<br />
• However, the underlying trend of<br />
air travel to & from Ireland is well<br />
established and ranks significantly<br />
ahead of European peers:<br />
Country Pop. Air Pax Multiple<br />
Ireland 4.5m 26.3m 5.8x<br />
UK 61.6m 198.5 3.2x<br />
Germany 82.0m 158.2m 1.9x<br />
France 64.7m 117,.6m 1.8x<br />
EU 27 500.0m 751.4m 1.5x<br />
Source: Anna <strong>Aer</strong>o<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
8
Immediate actions - to address demanding trading conditions<br />
Difficult to stop losses when Irish GDP declines by (7%)<br />
but we took corrective action<br />
Capacity<br />
Long haul capacity reduced by 22% in the second half of 2009<br />
Yield<br />
Focus is higher yields per passenger rather than simply<br />
increasing passenger loads on aircraft<br />
Bases<br />
Gatwick losses deemed unacceptable & capacity scale-back<br />
announced in January 2010<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
Slide 9
Immediate actions – “Greenfield” cost reduction programme launched<br />
• Greenfield is significant and it is organisation wide<br />
Greenfield - €97m cost savings<br />
• €97m of cost savings<br />
– €74m from staff cost and €23m of other savings<br />
• Cost base reduction target<br />
Workforce - 20%<br />
Back office functions - 40%<br />
Management positions - 40%<br />
• Reduction of 170 of 600 Head Office building / support staff in<br />
2011 / 2012<br />
• Non-Greenfield actions will be supported by IT investment<br />
and process re-engineering from 2011<br />
• 10% salary reduction<br />
• Pay freeze until 2012 / 2013<br />
– Pay freeze will potentially avoid additional costs<br />
Airline<br />
€2m<br />
€10m<br />
€3m<br />
€4m €3m<br />
€9m<br />
€30m<br />
Cost Reduction<br />
2009/10<br />
€20m<br />
% of Revenue<br />
(FY YE)<br />
Other = €23m<br />
€16m<br />
Cabin Crew Support Pilots<br />
Advertising Airport Charges Mtnce<br />
Other Staff Other Non-Staff Distribution<br />
Source: Company information<br />
Sector cost reductions<br />
Staff = €74m<br />
% of Op Cost<br />
(FY YE)<br />
British Airw ays £220m 2.40% 2.60%<br />
Air France €700m 2.90% 3.10%<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> €97m 7.15% 7.44%<br />
Source: Company announcements (FY YE =last reported). Note (2):<br />
Excludes restructuring costs<br />
(2)<br />
Larger relative cost reduction programme than competitors<br />
Slide 10
Delivering results in H1 2010
H1 2010 – Delivering positive performance in difficult conditions<br />
H1 2010 highlights<br />
• Improved performance despite air space<br />
closures & still declining demand in<br />
primary Irish market<br />
• Significant swing in Q2 2010 profitability<br />
compared to prior year<br />
• Both long haul & short haul operations<br />
were positive at EBITDAR level in H1<br />
2010<br />
€m<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Operating profit<br />
Q1 Q2 H1<br />
19<br />
• Upward trajectory in unit revenue trend<br />
(20)<br />
(18)<br />
(19)<br />
• Affirmation of revised approach to<br />
inventory & network management<br />
(40)<br />
(60)<br />
(38)<br />
• Financial position remains very robust<br />
• Extremely robust cash position of over<br />
€1bn at end of June 2010<br />
(80)<br />
(100)<br />
(75)<br />
(93)<br />
• However, cost reduction programme<br />
remains critical<br />
2009 2010<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
Slide 12
H1 2010 | Business overview<br />
Commercial highlights<br />
• Following a challenging 2009, the first 6 months of 2010 witnessed the<br />
turnaround of long haul operations with increased seat occupancy and higher<br />
yields.<br />
• Short haul performance was supported by a shift in customer booking<br />
patterns to dates closer to the flight departure.<br />
• Commercial impact of air space closures in Q2 2010 has been successfully<br />
mitigated and the forward booking profile has recovered.<br />
• Both long haul and short haul operations are now benefiting from remedial<br />
actions taken in late 2009 and early 2010.<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
13
Long haul turnaround supported by network management<br />
Long haul performance overview<br />
• Demand opportunity developed via network management and partnership.<br />
• Connecting traffic flows complementing point to point demand.<br />
• Revenue management and pricing strategy adjusted to reflect this new<br />
demand environment.<br />
• Consistent on-board product introduced across A330 fleet.<br />
• Strong unit revenue improvement delivered by combination of yield and load<br />
factor improvements.<br />
• Cargo volumes continue to improve year-on-year<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
14
Long haul turnaround supported by network management<br />
Long haul yield per ASK growth vs. 2009 Long haul ASK capacity vs. 2009<br />
36.5%<br />
31.1%<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
23.5%<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
(31.8%) (31.3%) (31.6%)<br />
Long haul yield per passenger growth vs. 2009<br />
Long haul load factor vs. 2009<br />
20.9%<br />
17.5%<br />
+ 6.4 pts<br />
+ 5.2 pts<br />
12.4%<br />
+ 3.8 pts<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
H1 2010 Results | August 2010<br />
15
Strong short haul yield growth in H1 2010<br />
Performance overview<br />
• Management of revenue per seat metric and not yield or load factor.<br />
• Demand led capacity planning and deployment.<br />
• Flight schedules adjusted to reflect time or price sensitive market<br />
requirements.<br />
• Underlying or natural demand managed with reduced reliance on promotional<br />
activity.<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
16
Strong short haul yield growth in H1 2010<br />
Short haul yield per ASK growth vs. 2009 Short haul ASK capacity vs. 2009<br />
10.2%<br />
4.9%<br />
4.3%<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
(5.3%)<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
(2.2%)<br />
(12.8%)<br />
Short haul yield per passenger growth vs. 2009<br />
13.8%<br />
Short haul load factor vs. 2009<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
9.0%<br />
3.0%<br />
Q1 10 Q2 10 H1 10<br />
(1.8) pts<br />
(1.5) pts<br />
(1.9) pts<br />
H1 2010 Results | August 2010<br />
17
H1 2010 | Ancillary revenue growth<br />
Overview<br />
• Continued growth in ancillary revenue<br />
per passenger with a 7.8% increase in<br />
H1 2010 compared to corresponding<br />
period in 2009.<br />
• Volume decline resulting from planned<br />
capacity reduction contributed to 3.9%<br />
decline in total ancillary revenue.<br />
Ancillary revenue per passenger - €<br />
18.32<br />
16.99 16.75<br />
14.97<br />
14.35<br />
11.50 11.70<br />
• Strong year-on-year performances from:<br />
• Online booking fees<br />
• Baggage fees<br />
• Card fees<br />
• Seat selection revenues<br />
H1 07 FY 07 H1 08 FY 08 H1 09 FY 09 H1 10<br />
• New fare family and bundled products<br />
being trialled at present.<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
18
H1 2010 | EBITDAR costs<br />
€m unless stated otherwise<br />
H1 2010<br />
€m<br />
H1 2009<br />
€m<br />
Change<br />
%<br />
Direct operating Costs 46.0 46.9 (1.9%)<br />
Distribution costs 24.9 26.1 (4.6%)<br />
Airport charges 117.6 121.4 (3.1%)<br />
En-route charges 26.9 28.2 (4.6%)<br />
Maintenance 23.7 37.2 (36.3%)<br />
FX hedging (gain) / loss (15.3) (20.7) (26.1%)<br />
Total ex-staff & fuel costs 223.9 239.0 (6.3%)<br />
Staff costs 135.7 152.1 (10.8%)<br />
Total ex-fuel 359.5 391.1 (8.1%)<br />
Fuel 132.1 189.6 (30.3%)<br />
Total incl. fuel 491.6 580.7 (15.3%)<br />
H1 2010 Results | August 2010 19
H1 2010 | Cash & debt<br />
€m Cash Debt<br />
Balance as at 31 st December 2009 828.5 492.6<br />
Free cashflow 56.3 -<br />
Net debt drawn / (repaid) 40.8 40.8<br />
FX impact 75.6 70.6<br />
Interest accrued 8.5 4.1<br />
Balance as at 30 th June 2010 1,009.7 608.2<br />
Restricted cash 59.5<br />
H1 2010 Results | August 2010 20
Ash cloud disruption - cost of air space closures has been contained<br />
Ash cloud response<br />
• <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> reacted effectively to<br />
unprecedented closure of Northern<br />
European airspace in April & May<br />
• Management confident that the total<br />
impact on <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong>’ operating result<br />
will be a maximum of €20m<br />
• Total cost as percentage of revenues<br />
is in line with peers<br />
No. of <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong><br />
flights disrupted<br />
Disruption periods<br />
Estimated lost gross<br />
margin<br />
Estimated passenger<br />
compensation costs<br />
• 2,128<br />
• 2 significant periods of<br />
disruption in April & May<br />
• Approx. €10.0 million<br />
• Approx. €10.0 million<br />
AF-KLM¹<br />
Air Berlin¹<br />
BA¹<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong>¹<br />
Ryanair¹<br />
easyjet¹<br />
€158m impact<br />
€40m impact<br />
Stg£142m impact<br />
€20m impact<br />
€50m impact<br />
Stg£65m impact<br />
0.8% of revenues<br />
1.2% of revenues<br />
1.4% of revenues<br />
1.7% of revenues<br />
1.7% of revenues<br />
2.4% of revenues<br />
¹ Derived from company announcements & most recent annual financial statements<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
21
Re-positioning for long term growth
Next steps to implementing our new strategy<br />
Satisfying customer needs<br />
Bespoke a la carte enhancements<br />
Fare families<br />
Introduction of EPOS handsets to<br />
further drive ancillary revenues<br />
Working with the Dublin Airport Authority<br />
State of the Art terminal will welcome visitors to Ireland<br />
Development of Dublin Airport as a strategic transfer point<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
Slide 23
Re-positioning <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> for long term growth<br />
Network<br />
Focus on our core mission:<br />
“Connecting Ireland with the World”<br />
Distribution<br />
Multi-platform strategy adopted to<br />
individual markets<br />
Product<br />
Quality core product with paid value<br />
enhancing options<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
Slide 24
Next steps to implementing our new strategy<br />
Connectivity<br />
“Filling-in” our existing short haul<br />
network<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> code now extended<br />
across North America<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
Slide 25
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong>’ role in industry consolidation<br />
• Network connectivity is key for us as we seek to connect Ireland to the World<br />
• <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> benefits from excellent relationships with members of the<br />
Oneworld, Star & SkyTeam alliances as well as our own partnership initiatives<br />
OneWorld Star SkyTeam Bilateral<br />
• These relationships provide us with a quality partner network with real depth<br />
• Asian connectivity remains the main gap in our current network<br />
• We are likely to join one of the 3 alliances in the medium term but no<br />
decision has yet been taken<br />
We will evaluate which of the 3 alliances is best suited to deliver a better<br />
product for our customers and a return on investment for shareholders<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
Slide 26
Partnerships Update<br />
United Airlines extended<br />
code share<br />
• Washington – Madrid commenced on 28<br />
March 2010<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> Regional<br />
franchise<br />
• Launched by <strong>Aer</strong> Arann in March with 4 of<br />
its aircraft serving 12 routes<br />
• Positive trading result at operating profit<br />
level<br />
• 100K+ passengers carried to date<br />
• Performance meeting United Airlines’<br />
and <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong>’ expectations<br />
• Meeting <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> network and franchise<br />
revenue expectations<br />
• Partners are reviewing opportunities for<br />
an additional aircraft in 2011<br />
• 5th ATR72 added to franchise by <strong>Aer</strong><br />
Arann in August to commence Shannon<br />
services.<br />
Both initiatives have already positively impacted the operating result despite<br />
only commencing in late March 2010<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
27
“Greenfield” cost reduction programme remains imperative<br />
Cost challenge<br />
• Continuing challenge is to actively control upward cost pressures<br />
• Fuel costs are volatile over time<br />
Operating<br />
environment<br />
remains difficult<br />
• A busy Summer season does not represent easing of operating<br />
environment & return to pre-recession demand levels<br />
• 2010/11 winter season will be more a difficult period to sustain<br />
recent yield performance<br />
We cannot be<br />
complacent on<br />
costs<br />
• Cannot assume recent growth in yields will continue indefinitely<br />
• Industry is already adding capacity with effect on long term yields<br />
• Yields maximisation cannot compensate for cost inflation<br />
H1 2010 Results | August 2010<br />
28
Decisive action taken on key issues<br />
Transatlantic<br />
services<br />
• Turnaround of long haul operations a crucial step for the company<br />
• Action taken to address loss making Shannon winter services<br />
• <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> remains committed to Shannon transatlantic services for rest of year<br />
Dublin Airport<br />
Terminal 2<br />
• Agreement with DAA to commence transfer of operations from November 2010<br />
• <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> passengers to benefit from US Custom & Border Protection facilities<br />
Property<br />
consolidation<br />
• Positive steps taken to reduce property portfolio<br />
• Includes surrender of leasehold interest in the Head Office Building site to DAA<br />
• Financial & operational benefits will accrue to <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong><br />
Dublin<br />
Maintenance<br />
• Base maintenance contract awarded to Dublin <strong>Aer</strong>ospace<br />
• Services previously undertaken by Sabena Technics in France<br />
• <strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> proud to support development of Irish air maintenance activities<br />
Management<br />
changes<br />
• Chief Operating Officer – Trevor Jensen – appointed on 29 April 2010<br />
• De-layering of organisational structure under way<br />
• 40% of remaining management positions with new appointments<br />
H1 2010 Results | August 2010<br />
29
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | Progress on key objectives<br />
• Significant turnaround in profitability of long haul operations<br />
<br />
• Revised revenue management strategy is generating positive results<br />
<br />
• Financial and operational impact of ash cloud disruption contained<br />
<br />
• United Airlines extended code share is delivering proof of concept<br />
<br />
• Cargo performance continues on positive trajectory<br />
<br />
• IT implementation remains on track<br />
<br />
<strong>Aer</strong> <strong>Lingus</strong> | 26 August 2010<br />
30
2010 Trading outlook<br />
Outlook comments<br />
• Cash drain addressed through remedial actions<br />
• Strategic actions are on track<br />
• Strong commercial performance at end of H1 2010<br />
• Full year operating result (before exceptional items) should be no worse than breakeven<br />
• However, this view is heavily dependent on delivery of committed staff productivity savings and no<br />
significant disruptions to operations from industrial action or further airspace closures<br />
• It is premature to provide firm guidance on likely performance in 2011. However….<br />
• Expected improvement in 2011 costs as a result of continued implementation of Greenfield<br />
programme<br />
H1 2010 Results | August 2010<br />
31
Q & A
Thank you !