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Challenges to Rural Poverty Reduction in Viet Nam - Oxfam Blogs

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Five-year Synthesis Report<br />

Part 2: <strong>Challenges</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>Rural</strong> <strong>Poverty</strong> <strong>Reduction</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Viet</strong> <strong>Nam</strong><br />

4. COPING WITH PRICE VOLATILITY<br />

High <strong>in</strong>flation rate is a hot issue <strong>in</strong> <strong>Viet</strong> <strong>Nam</strong> s<strong>in</strong>ce 2007. In particular, <strong>in</strong> 2008 and 2011 24 ,<br />

<strong>in</strong>flation was a great challenge <strong>to</strong> macroeconomic stabilization as well as people’s lives.<br />

This section presents the trend of price volatility <strong>in</strong> 2011 and its impacts on people’s<br />

lives and livelihoods at the moni<strong>to</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts.<br />

87<br />

4.1. Price volatility and the role of market agents<br />

Price volatility <strong>in</strong> 2011 at moni<strong>to</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />

The correlation between the price of agricultural produce, agricultural supplies<br />

and food varies between moni<strong>to</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g sites. In communes with favourable conditions<br />

for large-scale commodity production (Thanh Xuong-Dien Bien, Cu Hue-Dak Lak and<br />

Thuan Hoa-Tra V<strong>in</strong>h), compared <strong>to</strong> 2010 the average sale price <strong>in</strong> 2011 of rice and<br />

maize <strong>in</strong>creased by 25-30%, coffee 50% and key agricultural supplies by 25-30%. In<br />

other communes, the price of agricultural <strong>in</strong>puts rose faster than outputs. In 2010-2011<br />

<strong>in</strong> Duc Huong-Ha the price of peanuts, the ma<strong>in</strong> product, <strong>in</strong>creased by 5%, while the<br />

price of fertilizer <strong>in</strong>creased by more than 30%. In mounta<strong>in</strong>ous areas (Luong M<strong>in</strong>h-Nghe<br />

An, Xy-Quang Tri and Phuoc Thanh-N<strong>in</strong>h Thuan) where rice from self-production is<br />

<strong>in</strong>sufficient, the prices of rice <strong>in</strong>creased by 25-30%.<br />

Strong seasonal price volatility is severely affected by natural disasters,<br />

epidemics, diseases and world markets. At the moni<strong>to</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts, the price of rice,<br />

maize, and coffee at the end of the harvest<strong>in</strong>g season is at least 20-30% higher than that<br />

of the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of the season or ma<strong>in</strong> crop harvest. The quality of agricultural produce<br />

greatly affects its price. A typical example is the price of fresh cassava <strong>in</strong> Xy-Quang Tri <strong>in</strong><br />

September 2011 which fluctuated between 900 VND/kg and 2,000 VND/kg depend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

on the concentration of starch. The “blue-ear” epidemic <strong>in</strong> pigs <strong>in</strong> 2010 was the ma<strong>in</strong><br />

cause of high price of piglets <strong>in</strong> the first months of 2011. Chang<strong>in</strong>g world markets have<br />

rapid and strong impacts on the price at the moni<strong>to</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>ts, such as the daily change<br />

<strong>in</strong> price of coffee <strong>in</strong> Cu Hue-Dak Lak which closely follows the world coffee price.<br />

The role of market agents <strong>in</strong> the wake of price volatility<br />

Enterprises cannot help farmers with volatile prices. Enterprises purchase products<br />

from farmers (tea process<strong>in</strong>g enterprises <strong>in</strong> Ban Lien-Lao Cai, cassava process<strong>in</strong>g<br />

enterprises <strong>in</strong> Xy-Quang Tri, and coffee export enterprises <strong>in</strong> Cu Hue-Dak Lak). Enterprises<br />

support the production process (tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g, technical assistance, provision of seeds and<br />

fertilizer), however most enterprises purchase agricultural produce at prevail<strong>in</strong>g market<br />

prices.<br />

Sale agents reduce the amount of lend<strong>in</strong>g agricultural supplies <strong>in</strong> the wake of<br />

price volatility. People <strong>in</strong> many places (Thanh Xuong-Dien Bien, Duc Huong-Ha T<strong>in</strong>h,<br />

Cu Hue-Dak Lak, and Thuan Hoa-Tra V<strong>in</strong>h) can buy fertilizer, rice, food, sundries from<br />

sale agents on credit and pay later at a price that <strong>in</strong>cludes <strong>in</strong>terest. Some sale agents<br />

lend agricultural supplies and purchase produce at a discount. Price volatility <strong>in</strong> 2011<br />

meant many sale agents lent less <strong>to</strong> farmers. The volume of fertilizer sold <strong>in</strong> 2011 fell<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong> Duc Huong-Ha T<strong>in</strong>h (by 20%) and Cu Hue-Dak Lak (by 30%). Chang<strong>in</strong>g prices also<br />

affect buyers. In Duc Huong-Ha T<strong>in</strong>h, the price of peanuts (25,000 VND/kg) and green<br />

beans (24,000 VND/kg) fell by 5,000 VND/kg <strong>in</strong> 2011. Many agents who had bought and<br />

hoarded produce made a significant loss.<br />

24 Average consumer price <strong>in</strong>dex <strong>in</strong> 2008 <strong>in</strong>creased 22.97% aga<strong>in</strong>st that <strong>in</strong> 2007. Average consumer<br />

price <strong>in</strong>dex <strong>in</strong> 2011 <strong>in</strong>creased 18.58% aga<strong>in</strong>st that <strong>in</strong> 2010; <strong>in</strong> which the price <strong>in</strong>dex of agro-forestry<br />

produce and aqua products was up by 31.8%; and the price <strong>in</strong>dex of <strong>in</strong>puts and fuel used for production<br />

21.27%; the price <strong>in</strong>dex of transportation cost 18.52%. Source: GSO website, http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.<br />

aspx?tabid=413&thangtk=12/2008 and http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=507&ItemID=12128

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