The Global Rail Market Now to 2016 - Roland Berger

The Global Rail Market Now to 2016
UNIFE Study Key Findings & Future Outlook
UNIFE press conference at Innotrans
Berlin, September 24, 2008

We have updated our first rail
market study (2006)
Rationale behind the update of the rail market study
After successful reception and feedback to
the first study, UNIFE decided to update and
enlarge the scope of the study
– The country scope was extended from
41 to 50 countries (>95% of the market)
– Trends and their impact on the industry
were investigated in more depth
– The forecast now includes a bottom-up
validation to incorporate short-term
project demand into the model
Overall methodology and the approach for
long-term forecasting have remained
unchanged as they have proven to deliver
very good and stable results
2

Total rail supply market volume
exceeds EUR 120 bn
Key data Worldwide Rail Market Study
TOTAL MARKET
Average market volumes 05-07
Rail control
Infrastructure
Rolling stock
123 1)
10
22
37
Growth p.a.
2.0-2.5%
3.0-3.5%
2.5-3.0%
2.0-2.5%
ACCESSIBLE MARKET 2)
Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a.
86 1) 2.5-3.0%
Rail control 10
3.0-3.5%
Infrastructure 17
2.5-3.0%
Rolling stock
31
2.0-2.5%
Services
53
2.0-2.5%
Services 27
3.5-4.0%
1) Figures are including market volume for project integration,
Growth rates are 9-year average growth rates
2) ACCESSIBLE MARKET: Part of the market open to any external supplier
3

Expected growth per product
category ranges from 2% to 4%
Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]
Infrastructure Rolling Stock Rail control Services
Above average
growth foreseen for
electrification in the
mainline segment
High growth expected
for (V)HS
trains, intercity
multiple units and
light rail vehicles –
slight decline in
demand for coaches
Significant growth
foreseen for ETCS
(within and outside
of Europe) and
CBTC systems
Solid, global
development
and increasing
accessibility
expected, also
due to increasing
rolling stock base
2.5% – 3.0% 2.0% – 2.5% 3.0 – 3.5% 3.5% – 4.0%
4

35% of the rail market volume
originates from Western Europe
Accessible market volume rail market [EUR m] – average 05-07 1)
REGIONS [%]
Infrastructure
Rolling
stock
Rail
control
Services
Asia/
Pacific
Infrastructure
Other
Services
21
20
24
35
NAFTA
Rail Control
20
11
32
SEGMENTS [%]
37
Western
Europe
Rolling
Stock
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
CIS
NAFTA
Rest of America
Asia/Pacific
Africa/
Middle East
6,307 10,718 4,641 7,651 29,317
0,986 1,615 0,587 1,709 4,897
0,639 2,500 0,421 2,004 5,564564
5,702 5,260 1,098 8,739 20,799
0,238 0,787 0,187 1,508 2,720
2,652 8,335 2,217 4,976 18,180
0,570 2,090 0,502 0,349 3,511
17,094 31,305 9,653 26,936 84,988
1) Excluding market volume for project integration
5

Overall study methodology
Common market segmentation is
the basis for further proceeding
MARKET
SEGMENTATION
50 countries
in 7 regions
ANALYSIS of market volumes and installed
base in status quo
Research of installed base
Analysis of studies and UNIFE member data
Verification and comprising of data and elimination
of inconsistencies
Analysis of major industry trends
5 transport
segments
>30 product
segments
DEVELOPMENT of market model and
FORECAST of market volumes
Review and selection of model drivers
Determination of factors and formulation of
forecasting equations
Model calibration to calculate market volumes
Project-based bottom-up validation
6

The accessible rail market is
expected to grow around 2.9%
Growth rates accessible market product categories 2007-2016 [% p.a.]
NAFTA Western Europe Eastern Europe CIS
All: 1.9 All: 2.1 All: 4.1 All: 4.5
0.5 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.6
0.3
2.8 3.5 2.2
6.7
3.3 2.4
5.8 4.4
1.7
4.6
Infra
RS RC Serv Infra RS RC Serv
Infra RS RC Serv
Infra RS RC Serv
Rest of America Africa/Middle East Asia/Pacific World
All: 6.0
All: 2.7
All: 3.8
All: 2.9
5.0 5.9
3.5
6.6 6.2
5.7 4.9 5.6
3.3 3.3 3.7 2.8 2.2 3.1 3.6
-0.1
Infra
RS
RC
Serv
Infra
RS
RC
Serv
Infra
RS
RC
Serv
Infra
RS
RC
Serv
Infra Infrastructure
RC Rail Control
RS Rolling Stock
Serv Services
7

Example: In Asia/Pacific the strong
growth is expected to continue
Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]
Asia/Pacific
All: 3.8
5.7
Very
high
speed
10.5
3.5 2.8
Mainline
Light
rail
Metro
Asian very high speed countries are
China, Japan, South Korea and
Taiwan – growth mainly originates
from first three
Above average growth within the
mainline segment stems from
– Superstructure and electrification
– High speed and intercity trainsets
– Electric locomotives
The urban sector will continue its
strong development due to the
lasting need of urban transport
8

Overall trends favor the industry's
development
Selection of relevant major trends
Urbanisation
results in additional
and lasting demand for
public rail transport, esp.
in emerging megacities
and metropolitan areas
Ecological awareness &
energy consumption
favour rail as an environmentally
friendly
transport mode
Leasing &
Financing
facilitates operators'
demand and
generates additional
demand through inter-
nationalisation of
leasing companies
ERTMS
opens European
markets and creates
additional demand from
implementation outside
of Europe
Indicates impact on the industry
Shortage of engineering
capacity
may become the
bottleneck for growth
Deregulation
and liberalisation
higher competition for
rail operation
increases demand for
new rolling stock
9

Providing Competitive Railway Systems
for Increased Rail Traffic
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