MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Next week's T-Bills Supply
Date Country Issues Details
24/09 UK T-Bills Oct 2010 GBP 1bn
T-Bills Dec 2010
GBP 1.5bn
T-Bills Mar 2011
GBP 1.5bn
27/09 France BTF Dec 2010 EUR 4bn
BTF Feb 2011
EUR 1bn
BTF Mar 2011
EUR 2bn
BTF Jun 2011
EUR 1.5bn
Italy BOT Mar 2011 EUR 9bn
Germany Bubills Sep 2011 (new) EUR 4bn
US T-Bills Dec 2010 USD 29bn
T-Bills Mar 2011 (new) USD 29bn
FHLMC Bills 3-month & 6-month 24 Sep
28/09 Spain Letras Dec 2010 27 Sep
Letras Mar 2011
27 Sep
Canada T-Bill Jan 2011 CAD 7.7bn
T-Bill Mar 2011 (new) CAD 2.9bn
T-Bill Sep 2011 (new) CAD 2.9bn
US T-Bills 4-week 27 Sep
FHLB Discount Notes
29/09 Japan T-Bills Jan 2011 JPY 4.8tn
Denmark T-Bills
FNMA Bills 3-month & 6-month 27 Sep
30/09 FHLB Discount Notes
01/10 UK T-Bills 24 Sep
Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas
Comments and charts
• EGB gross supply will fall to around EUR 12/13bn in
the week ahead from EUR 14bn in the past week. In 10y
duration adjusted terms, it falls to around EUR 6.3bn.
There well be also a significant amount of long-term and
short-term redemptions, leading to negative net supply
figures.
• Italy will kick off EGB issuance with a CTZ Aug-12
tap for EUR 3bn. On the same day, Belgium will tap
three OLO lines: Mar-16, Sep-20 and Mar-41. Then on
Tuesday, Italy will tap BTPei Sep-21 for EUR 1-1.5bn
and Netherlands will conduct off-the-run taps of DSLs
Jul-15 and Jul-18 for EUR 1-2bn. Finally, on Wednesday
Italy will reopen BTPs Jun-13 and Mar-21 and also tap
CCTeu Dec-15 for an expected amount of EUR 4-6bn.
• Outside the eurozone, the US will issue USD 100bn
of 2y, 5y and 7y maturity notes. Sweden and Japan will
also issue paper.
Next week's Eurozone Redemptions
Date Country Details Amount
28/09 Belgium OLO 5.75% EUR 15.8bn
29/09 Greece GGB 6% EUR 0.2bn
30/09 Italy CTZ EUR 16.4bn
Total Eurozone Long-term Redemption EUR 32.4bn
27/09 Austria ATB (EU38) EUR 0.1bn
27/09 Austria ATB (EU37) EUR 0.2bn
29/09 Germany Bubills EUR 5.0bn
30/09 France BTF EUR 10.0bn
30/09 Italy BOT 6mth EUR 9.0bn
30/09 Neths DTC EUR 12.3bn
Total Eurozone Short-term Redemption EUR 36.6bn
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Next week's Eurozone Coupons
Country
Belgium
Total Long-term Coupon Payments
Chart 1: Investors’ Net Cash Flows
(EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Net Investors' Cash Flows
(EUR bn , 10y equivalent)
Week of Sep 27th Week of Oct 4th Week of Oct 11th Week of Oct 18th
Chart 2: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by
Country (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Germany Italy Portugal Belgium
France Spain Netherlands Austria
Finland Greece Ireland
Amount
EUR 4.7bn
EUR 4.7bn
Week of Sep 27th Week of Oct 4th Week of Oct 11th Week of Oct 18th
Chart 3: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by
Maturity (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
14
12
2-3-YR 5-7-YR 10-YR >10-YR
EGBs Gross Supply (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Week of Sep 27th Week of Oct 4th Week of Oct 11th Week of Oct 18th
All Charts Source: BNP Paribas
Interest Rate Strategy 23 September 2010
Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section
65
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com