MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
Key Data Preview<br />
Chart 3: US ISM Points to Moderation<br />
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro<br />
<strong>BNP</strong> Paribas Forecast: Mixed Report<br />
US: Durable Goods (August)<br />
Release Date: Friday 24 September<br />
Durable goods orders are expected to fall 1.7% in August,<br />
after a 0.4% increase in July, reflecting a sharp drop in<br />
Boeing orders. Excluding transportation, we look for a<br />
modest 0.9% rebound after a sharp 3.7% decline in July.<br />
Orders for durable goods appear to be slowing as the<br />
inventory cycle runs its course and global trade cools. The<br />
new orders component of the ISM manufacturing index has<br />
declined for three consecutive months, pointing to a<br />
noticeable slowing (see chart). Our forecast would be<br />
consistent with a solid but smaller contribution to GDP from<br />
business investment in Q3.<br />
% m/m Aug (f) Jul Jun May<br />
Durable Goods -1.7 0.4 -0.2 -0.7<br />
Ex-Transport 0.9 -3.7 0.2 1.4<br />
Key Point:<br />
The negative headline reading we expect would be<br />
driven by a sharp decline in Boeing orders; extransport<br />
should post a modest gain.<br />
Chart 4: Japan: Trade Balance (JPY bn, sa)<br />
1400<br />
1200<br />
1000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
-200<br />
-400<br />
-600<br />
-800<br />
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10<br />
Source: MOF, <strong>BNP</strong> Paribas<br />
JPY bn Aug (f) Jul Jun May<br />
Trade balance (nsa) 347.0 802.0 682.2 316.0<br />
Trade balance (sa) 541.3 610.4 514.5 345.8<br />
<strong>BNP</strong> Paribas: Slightly Smaller Surplus<br />
Japan: Trade Data (August)<br />
Release Date: Monday 27 September<br />
Based on trade data through mid-August, we expect<br />
nominal exports in the month as a whole to have declined<br />
more sharply than nominal imports, with the result that the<br />
seasonally adjusted trade surplus should modestly shrink.<br />
Owing to the yen’s appreciation (which causes yen-based<br />
prices to decline for imports and exports), nominal exports<br />
have declined for three straight months and imports have<br />
declined for two. On the other hand, real exports (adjusted<br />
for exchange rate and price fluctuations) continue to trend<br />
higher, led by shipments to Asia. In August, though, there<br />
could be a momentary lull as real exports could contract<br />
slightly (real imports should slightly expand). While the<br />
yen’s dramatic appreciation has not damaged export<br />
volume (real exports) so far, the pace of real export growth<br />
is no longer as robust as before, owing to the fading impact<br />
of overseas inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus.<br />
Key Point:<br />
We expect nominal exports to have declined more<br />
sharply than nominal imports, with the result that the<br />
seasonally adjusted trade surplus should modestly<br />
shrink.<br />
Market Economics 23 September 2010<br />
Market Mover<br />
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com<br />
55