MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Germany 10y: Keeping MT bullish bias below 2.50/56. Watch 2.24 now MT Trend: Neutral/down Range: 2.20/2.40
It stalled below critical 2.52/2.56 (MT falling
1.94/1.95 2.84
channel resistance & ST 61.8%) & took the
way down again with 2.44 gap left for a
move towards key 2.24 (61.8%), next
targets being psychological 2% level &
1.94/1.95 ( MT falling channel support + LT
161.8% extension)
Break below 2.24 is now needed to
strengthen the MT bullish scenario for a
return initially to 2.087 low.
If not, the risk will be to regain a ST negative
bias for a move back towards key 2.50/
52/2.56 (last top + MT falling channel resistance
& ST 61.8%). Note such a move
would imply the risk of a negative rising ABC
Tech Snapshot
- Within LT falling wedge/MT falling channel
- ST rising channel break calls for 2.24
Strategy: Short 2.37 covered 2.50. Play
long small only below 2.24 with close S/L
UK 10y: Keeping MT bullish bias below 3.15 but watch 2.95 now MT Trend: Neutral/down Range: 2.85/3.05
Sharp fall within a MT falling channel
2.57 3.37
(2.57/3.15) allowed reaching 2.93 (2009 low)
around which it is now trading.
The MT tone remains rather positive within
this MT falling channel & a break above its
up boundary (3.15) is needed to turn MT
study negative again with 3.25 (ST 61.8%)
then as a bearish confirmation level.
It needs now a break below 2.93/2.95 (2009
low & 61.8%) to strengthen MT positive bias
for 2.79 low initially.
Note a failure to do so would increase risk of
a negative rising ABC scenario developing.
Tech Snapshot
- Within MT falling channel
- Testing 2.95 (61.8%)
Strategy:Play long only below 2.95 with
close S/L. Play short only above 3.15
S&P: Needs now to break above key 1127/1140 to turn positive MT MT Trend: Neutral/Up Range: 1100/1150
Last sharp rebound allowed reaching critical 1053/63 1219/1228
1127/1140 (Bottom Head & Shoulders
neckline & MT 61.8%), which decisive break
would call for crucial 1219/28/45 (April top
+LT 61.8%+ H&S target).
This 1127/40 is now the ST/MT pivot area.
A failure to break it up now would call for a
return below 1100
However, it needs a break below 1153/63
(ST rising channel support & MT 61.8%) to
regain a MT negative study
Tech Snapshot
- Testing critical 1127/1140 resistance area
- Falling ABC may be over & a MT rising
wave “3” starting
Strategy: Tried long on 1050/70 S/L 1110
now for 1200 with ½ sold at 1140
Christian Sené 23 September 2010
Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section
42
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