MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
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Technical Analysis – Interest Rates & Commodities<br />
Bond & Short-Term Contracts<br />
• Europe 10y: Supportive MT bias again within MT falling channel but needs to break below 2.24 to extend fall<br />
• US 10y: Regained a slight MT positive bias below 2.58 but failure to sustain it would rekindle previous bear tone<br />
• Short-term contracts z0: Supportive tone on ED back on its top but still a toppish/consolidative one on Euribor<br />
Equities & Commodities<br />
• WTI (Cl1): Neutral MT between key 70.76/71.39 & key 78.31/40 but weak ST, back on 73.50/74.00 ST support<br />
• Equity markets: Markets remain supportive MT but showing a ST toppish bias which could last<br />
US 10y: Slight move back below 2.58 pivot reopened way for 2.41 first MT Trend: Neutral/down Range: 2.40/2.65<br />
The break above MT falling wedge 2.03 3.03<br />
(2.21/2.58) was negative & triggered a<br />
classic pullback move on key 2.79 (LT<br />
61.8%) area around which it stalled to be<br />
back now below critical 2.58 (ST 61.8% &<br />
MT falling wedge resistance).<br />
That rekindled the MT bullish bias for 2.415<br />
August low initially but a break below it is<br />
needed to strengthen the previous MT<br />
bullish bias towards 2.03 (2008 low).<br />
A renewed break above 2.58 is needed to<br />
turn slightly negative again, key resistance<br />
above being 2.85/86 (last top & ST 61.8%)<br />
which break would turn it negative again MT<br />
for 3% then.<br />
Tech Snapshot<br />
- Back below 2.58 (ST/MT pivot now)<br />
-Still below key LT 61.8% (2.79) for 2.03 low<br />
- Still a weekly bottom reversal<br />
Strategy: Short 2.58/62 stopped 2.53.<br />
Keep long now if you are below 2.58<br />
US/EUR 10y bond: 6.6 will be ST target if we move back below 22.4 low MT Trend: Neutral/down Range: 10.0/30.0<br />
Failure to overcome MT falling channel<br />
-20.9