MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Japan
UK
Sweden
Core CPI SA
Core CPI NSA
Headline CPI RPI
CPI CPIF
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2009 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9
2010 (1) 99.2 - -1.1 99.3 - -1.0 114.4 - 3.3 223.3 - 4.5 303.0 - 1.1 194.9 - 1.9
2011 (1) 98.6 - -0.6 98.6 - -0.6 117.2 - 2.4 229.9 - 2.9 309.2 - 2.0 197.2 - 1.2
Q3 2009 99.9 - -2.3 100.1 - -2.3 111.3 - 1.5 214.4 - -1.4 299.5 - -1.2 191.6 - 1.6
Q4 2009 99.7 - -1.8 99.9 - -1.8 112.1 - 2.1 216.9 - 0.6 301.3 - -0.4 193.2 - 2.3
Q1 2010 99.7 - -1.3 99.3 - -1.2 112.9 - 3.2 219.3 - 4.0 301.2 - 1.0 194.0 - 2.6
Q2 2010 99.3 - -1.2 99.3 - -1.2 114.4 - 3.4 223.5 - 5.1 302.8 - 1.1 194.9 - 2.1
Q3 2010 (1) 98.8 - -1.1 99.1 - -1.0 114.7 - 3.0 224.3 - 4.6 302.6 - 1.0 194.6 - 1.6
Q4 2010 (1) 99.1 - -0.6 99.3 - -0.6 115.6 - 3.1 226.3 - 4.3 305.4 - 1.4 195.9 - 1.4
Q1 2011 (1) 98.8 - -0.9 98.4 - -0.9 116.1 - 2.8 227.4 - 3.7 305.2 - 1.3 195.2 - 0.6
Q2 2011 (1) 98.6 - -0.7 98.6 - -0.7 117.1 - 2.4 229.5 - 2.7 308.3 - 1.8 197.0 - 1.0
Jan 10 99.6 -0.1 -1.3 99.2 -0.6 -1.3 112.4 -0.2 3.4 217.9 0.0 3.7 299.8 -0.6 0.6 193.0 -0.2 2.6
Feb 10 99.8 0.2 -1.2 99.2 0.0 -1.2 112.9 0.4 3.0 219.2 0.6 3.7 301.6 0.6 1.2 194.2 0.6 2.7
Mar 10 99.8 0.0 -1.2 99.5 0.3 -1.2 113.5 0.5 3.4 220.7 0.7 4.4 302.3 0.2 1.2 194.7 0.3 2.5
Apr 10 99.3 -0.5 -1.5 99.2 -0.3 -1.5 114.2 0.6 3.7 222.8 1.0 5.3 302.4 0.0 1.0 194.8 0.0 2.2
May 10 99.3 0.0 -1.2 99.3 0.1 -1.2 114.4 0.2 3.3 223.6 0.4 5.1 302.9 0.2 1.2 195.0 0.1 2.1
Jun 10 99.2 -0.1 -1.0 99.3 0.0 -1.0 114.6 0.2 3.2 224.1 0.2 5.0 303.0 0.0 0.9 195.0 0.0 1.9
Jul-10 98.9 -0.3 -1.1 99.0 -0.3 -1.1 114.3 -0.3 3.1 223.6 -0.2 4.8 302.0 -0.3 1.1 194.3 -0.3 1.7
Aug 10 (1) 98.8 -0.1 -1.0 99.1 0.1 -1.0 114.9 0.5 3.1 224.5 0.4 4.7 302.1 0.0 0.9 194.3 0.0 1.4
Sep 10 (1) 98.8 0.0 -1.0 99.2 0.1 -1.0 114.9 0.0 3.0 224.7 0.1 4.4 303.6 0.5 1.1 195.2 0.5 1.5
Oct 10 (1) 99.2 0.4 -0.5 99.6 0.4 -0.5 115.2 0.3 3.1 225.6 0.4 4.4 305.0 0.5 1.3 195.9 0.3 1.5
Nov 10 (1) 99.2 0.0 -0.6 99.3 -0.3 -0.6 115.5 0.2 3.1 226.2 0.3 4.4 305.3 0.1 1.4 196.0 0.1 1.5
Dec 10 (1) 99.0 -0.2 -0.7 99.1 -0.2 -0.7 116.2 0.6 3.2 227.2 0.4 4.2 306.0 0.3 1.4 195.9 -0.1 1.2
Jan 11 (1) 98.9 -0.1 -0.7 98.5 -0.6 -0.7 115.8 -0.3 3.1 226.7 -0.2 4.0 303.7 -0.8 1.3 194.4 -0.7 0.7
Feb 11 (1) 98.8 -0.1 -1.0 98.2 -0.3 -1.0 116.2 0.3 2.9 227.5 0.3 3.8 305.1 0.5 1.2 195.2 0.4 0.5
Mar 11 (1) 98.7 -0.1 -1.1 98.4 0.2 -1.1 116.4 0.2 2.5 228.0 0.2 3.3 306.8 0.6 1.5 196.1 0.4 0.7
Apr 11 (1) 98.6 -0.1 -0.7 98.5 0.1 -0.7 116.8 0.3 2.3 228.7 0.3 2.7 307.8 0.3 1.8 196.7 0.3 1.0
May 11 (1) 98.7 0.1 -0.6 98.7 0.2 -0.6 117.2 0.3 2.4 229.5 0.4 2.7 308.3 0.2 1.8 197.0 0.2 1.0
Jun 11 (1) 98.5 -0.2 -0.7 98.6 -0.1 -0.7 117.3 0.1 2.4 230.2 0.3 2.7 308.9 0.2 1.9 197.2 0.1 1.1
Updated
Next
Release
Sep 16
Aug CPI (Oct 1)
Sep 16
Sep CPI (Oct 12)
Sep 16
Sep CPI (Oct 12)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y)
Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y)
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Prices are expected to continue falling but the pace of decline is
easing as the economy recovers.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
We expect inflation to remain above target for the remainder of the
year, although trending down.
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan
Market Mover
34
23 September 2010
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com