MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
MARKET MOVER - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India
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Table 1: <strong>BNP</strong> Paribas' Inflation Forecasts<br />
Eurozone<br />
France<br />
US<br />
Headline HICP Ex-tobacco HICP<br />
Headline CPI<br />
Ex-tobacco CPI<br />
CPI Urban SA CPI Urban NSA<br />
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y<br />
2009 108.1 - 0.3 107.9 - 0.2 119.3 - 0.1 118.0 - 0.1 214.5 - -0.3 214.5 - -0.4<br />
2010 (1) 109.8 - 1.6 109.5 - 1.5 121.1 - 1.5 119.7 - 1.4 218.3 - 1.7 218.2 - 1.7<br />
2011 (1) 111.5 - 1.6 111.1 - 1.5 122.7 - 1.4 121.3 - 1.3 221.5 - 1.5 221.4 - 1.5<br />
Q3 2009 108.0 - -0.4 107.8 - -0.5 119.4 - -0.4 118.1 - -0.4 215.4 - -1.6 215.7 - -1.6<br />
Q4 2009 108.6 - 0.4 108.4 - 0.3 119.7 - 0.4 118.4 - 0.3 216.8 - 1.5 216.2 - 1.4<br />
Q1 2010 108.6 - 1.1 108.3 - 1.0 120.3 - 1.3 119.0 - 1.2 217.6 - 2.4 217.0 - 2.4<br />
Q2 2010 110.0 - 1.5 109.7 - 1.4 121.3 - 1.6 120.0 - 1.5 217.2 - 1.8 218.1 - 1.8<br />
Q3 2010 (1) 109.9 - 1.7 109.5 - 1.6 121.2 - 1.5 119.8 - 1.5 218.1 - 1.3 218.3 - 1.2<br />
Q4 2010 (1) 110.7 - 1.9 110.4 - 1.9 121.4 - 1.5 120.0 - 1.4 220.0 - 1.5 219.3 - 1.5<br />
Q1 2011 (1) 110.5 - 1.8 110.2 - 1.7 121.8 - 1.2 120.4 - 1.2 220.9 - 1.5 220.4 - 1.5<br />
Q2 2011 (1) 111.6 - 1.5 111.2 - 1.4 122.8 - 1.2 121.3 - 1.1 221.3 - 1.9 222.1 - 1.9<br />
Jan 10 108.1 -0.8 1.0 107.75 -0.8 0.9 119.7 -0.2 1.1 118.32 -0.2 1.0 217.6 0.2 2.7 216.69 0.3 2.6<br />
Feb 10 108.4 0.3 0.9 108.10 0.3 0.8 120.4 0.6 1.3 118.99 0.6 1.2 217.6 0.0 2.2 216.74 0.0 2.1<br />
Mar 10 109.4 0.9 1.4 109.09 0.9 1.3 120.9 0.5 1.6 119.58 0.5 1.5 217.7 0.1 2.4 217.63 0.4 2.3<br />
Apr 10 109.9 0.5 1.5 109.58 0.4 1.4 121.3 0.3 1.7 119.90 0.3 1.6 217.6 -0.1 2.2 218.01 0.2 2.2<br />
May 10 110.0 0.1 1.6 109.71 0.1 1.5 121.4 0.1 1.6 120.04 0.1 1.6 217.2 -0.2 2.0 218.18 0.1 2.0<br />
Jun 10 110.0 0.0 1.4 109.70 0.0 1.3 121.4 0.0 1.5 120.02 0.0 1.4 216.9 -0.1 1.1 217.97 -0.1 1.1<br />
Jul 10 109.7 -0.3 1.7 109.31 -0.4 1.7 121.0 -0.3 1.7 119.68 -0.3 1.6 217.6 0.3 1.3 218.01 0.0 1.2<br />
Aug 10 109.9 0.2 1.6 109.54 0.2 1.5 121.3 0.2 1.4 119.97 0.2 1.3 218.2 0.3 1.2 218.31 0.1 1.1<br />
Sep 10 (1) 110.1 0.2 1.8 109.79 0.2 1.7 121.2 -0.1 1.5 119.85 -0.1 1.5 218.7 0.3 1.3 218.71 0.2 1.3<br />
Oct 10 (1) 110.5 0.3 1.9 110.18 0.3 1.9 121.3 0.1 1.5 119.95 0.1 1.5 219.5 0.4 1.5 219.40 0.3 1.5<br />
Nov 10 (1) 110.6 0.1 1.9 110.25 0.1 1.8 121.4 0.0 1.4 119.93 0.0 1.4 219.8 0.1 1.4 219.25 -0.1 1.4<br />
Dec 10 (1) 111.0 0.4 2.0 110.68 0.4 1.9 121.6 0.2 1.4 120.16 0.2 1.3 220.6 0.4 1.6 219.24 0.0 1.5<br />
Jan 11 (1) 110.0 -0.9 1.8 109.68 -0.9 1.8 121.3 -0.3 1.4 119.84 -0.3 1.3 220.8 0.1 1.5 219.91 0.3 1.5<br />
Feb 11 (1) 110.4 0.4 1.9 110.07 0.4 1.8 121.9 0.5 1.3 120.45 0.5 1.2 220.9 0.1 1.5 220.15 0.1 1.6<br />
Mar 11 (1) 111.1 0.6 1.6 110.74 0.6 1.5 122.2 0.3 1.1 120.78 0.3 1.0 221.1 0.1 1.5 221.08 0.4 1.6<br />
Apr 11 (1) 111.4 0.3 1.4 111.05 0.3 1.3 122.6 0.3 1.1 121.10 0.3 1.0 221.2 0.1 1.7 221.66 0.3 1.7<br />
May 11 (1) 111.6 0.2 1.5 111.25 0.2 1.4 122.8 0.2 1.2 121.36 0.2 1.1 221.3 0.0 1.9 222.23 0.3 1.9<br />
Jun 11 (1) 111.7 0.1 1.6 111.36 0.1 1.5 122.9 0.1 1.3 121.49 0.1 1.2 221.4 0.0 2.1 222.54 0.1 2.1<br />
Updated<br />
Next<br />
Release<br />
Sep 23<br />
Sep Flash HICP (Sep 30)<br />
Sep 23<br />
Sep CPI (Oct 13)<br />
Sep 17<br />
Sep CPI (Oct 15)<br />
Source: <strong>BNP</strong> Paribas, (1) Forecasts<br />
Chart 4: Eurozone Core HICP (% y/y)<br />
Chart 5: US Core CPI (% y/y)<br />
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro<br />
Since printing an all-time low in April, core inflation has been a<br />
touch stronger in recent months, reflecting gains in both core<br />
goods and core services inflation. While we expect core services<br />
inflation to head lower, the rebound in core goods has further to<br />
run. We expect a brief interruption to the downward trend in core.<br />
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro<br />
The downward trend in shelter inflation was recently interrupted<br />
and leading indicators suggest its strength will continue to year<br />
end. The renewed collapse in the housing market should see a<br />
reversion to a downward trend from early next year.<br />
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan<br />
Market Mover<br />
33<br />
23 September 2010<br />
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com