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Economic Forecasts
GDP
Year 2010
2011
(% y/y) ’09 ’10 (1) ’11 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US -2.6 2.8 2.4 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5
Eurozone -4.0 1.7 1.6 0.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5
Japan -5.2 3.6 1.4 5.0 2.7 4.4 2.6 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.9
World (2) -0.6 4.8 4.1 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2
Industrial Production
Year
2010
2011
(% y/y) ’09 ’10 (1) ’11 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US -9.3 5.5 3.0 2.7 7.4 6.6 5.3 4.2 3.0 2.4 2.5
Eurozone -14.6 6.8 2.8 4.6 9.0 6.9 6.6 4.6 2.6 2.2 1.8
Japan -21.9 15.0 1.2 27.4 21.0 13.4 2.6 -1.3 -1.6 1.2 6.2
Unemployment Rate
Year
2010 2011
(%) ’09 ’10 (1) ’11 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.3
Eurozone 9.4 10.0 10.2 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2
Japan 5.1 5.1 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5
CPI
Year
2010
2011
(% y/y) ’09 ’10 (1) ’11 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US -0.4 1.6 1.5 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.1
Eurozone 0.3 1.6 2.2 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.3
Japan -1.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 0.0 -0.9 -1.0 -0.7 -1.1
Current Account
(% GDP) ’09
Year
’10 (1) ’11 (1) General Government
(% GDP)
’09
Year
’10 (1) ’11 (1)
US -2.7 -3.4 -3.3 US (4) -10.0 -8.9 -9.9
Eurozone -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 Eurozone -6.3 -6.2 -4.7
Japan 2.8 3.5 3.5 Japan -10.2 -8.2 -6.8
Interest Rate Forecasts
Interest Rate (3)
Year
2011
2012
(%) ’09 ’10 ’11 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US
Fed Funds Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50
3-month Rate 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.45 0.75 0.90
2-year yield 1.14 0.61 1.00 0.50 0.75 0.85 1.00 1.10 1.50 2.15 2.40
10-year yield 3.84 3.29 3.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.60
2y/10y Spread (bp) 269 268 275 250 250 265 275 290 275 235 220
Eurozone
Refinancing Rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75
3-month Rate 0.70 1.01 1.35 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00
2-year yield 1.37 0.85 1.50 1.00 1.20 1.30 1.50 1.70 2.05 2.30 2.45
10-year yield 3.40 2.96 3.35 2.75 2.90 3.15 3.35 3.50 3.75 3.90 4.10
2y/10y Spread (bp) 203 211 185 175 170 185 185 180 170 160 165
Japan
O/N Call Rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
3-month Rate 0.46 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
2-year yield 0.15 0.18 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.30
10-year yield 1.30 1.12 1.40 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.50 1.50
2y/10y Spread (bp) 115 95 115 95 105 115 115 115 110 120 120
Footnotes: (1) Forecast (2) Country weights used to construct world growth are those in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update
April 2010 (3) End Period (4) Fiscal year Figures are y/y percentage change unless otherwise indicated
Source: BNP Paribas
Market Economics / Interest Rate Strategy 20 January 2011
Market Mover
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