Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar 0Global Markets, Home Page just one click on “Market Calendar” for more details In the pipeline - Treasuries: Ireland: To resume borrowing as soon as market conditions permit Italy: BTP Sep 2021 (new) to be issued in Q1 Poland: Plans to issue dollar-denominated bonds in H1. Is also considering issuing bonds denominated in yen and euros Portugal: Expects to launch a new bond via a syndicate in Q1. Another new bond issue is possible at a later date UK: Two mini tenders, one in February and another in March Belgium: Cancelled its bond auction scheduled for 31 January Finland: To launch two new euro-denominated benchmark bonds in 2011, a new 10y in H1 Czech Rep.: May sell up to EUR 2bn of bonds in May Denmark: In 2011, to issue a 5-year EUR loan (EUR 1-2bn); EUR or USD loans may be issued in the 2-5y maturity segment Slovak Rep.: Plans to raise as much as EUR 4bn through syndicated sales During the week: UK: Index-Linked Gilt 1.25% Nov 2055 (re-opening, syndicated, GBP) FNMA: Second syndicated auction in January, details announced on 27 January Date Day Closing Country Issues Details BNPP forecasts Local GMT 21/01 Fri 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2018 - 2020) USD 7-9bn 24/01 Mon 12:00 03:00 Japan JGBs 10y Auction for Enhanced-liquidity issue 208-309 JGBs 20y Auction for Enhanced-liquidity issue 59-88 JPY 0.3tn Slovak Rep. SLOVGB 14 Oct 2013 (#215 - floating rate) EUR 0.2bn 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2016 - 2017) USD 7-9bn 25/01 Tue Neths DSL 5% 15 Jul 2012 (Off-the-run facility) DSL 4.5% 15 Jul 2017 (Off-the-run facility) EUR 2-3bn Denmark DGB 5% 15 Nov 2013 DGB 3% 15 Nov 2021 12:00 17:00 Canada Repurchase of 10 Cash Mgt Bonds (Jun11 - Jun12) CAD 0.5bn 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2015 - 2016) USD 6-8bn 13:00 18:00 US Notes 0.5% 31 Jan 2013 (new) USD 35bn 26/01 Wed 10:55 09:55 Italy CTZ 21 Jan 11:00 10:00 Germany Bund 3.25% 4 Jul 2042 EUR 2bn 11:00 10:00 Sweden T-bonds 5% 1 Dec 2020 (# 1047) SEK 2bn 12:00 17:00 Canada CAN 2-year 20 Jan 13:00 18:00 US Notes 2% 31 Jan 2016 (new) USD 35bn 27/01 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 15 Feb 2013 JPY 2.6tn 10:55 09:55 Italy BTPeis 21 Jan EUR 2-3bn 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2012 - 2013) USD 4-6bn 13:00 18:00 US Notes 2.75% 31 Jan 2018 (new) USD 29bn 28/01 Fri 10:55 09:55 Italy 3 & 10y BTPs and CCT 21 Jan EUR 7-9bn 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2018 - 2020) USD 7-9bn 31/01 Mon 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2013 - 2014) USD 6-8bn 01/02 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 10-year 25 Jan JPY 2.2tn 11:00 10:00 Austria RAGBs 25 Jan EUR1.5-2.5bn 10:30 10:30 UK Gilt 2% 22 Jan 2016 25 Jan 11:00 16:00 US Outright TIPS Purchase (2013 - 2040) USD 1-2bn 02/02 Wed 12:00 17:00 Canada CAN 10-year 27 Jan 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2021 - 2027) USD 1.5-2.5bn 03/02 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 27 Jan JPY 0.3tn 10:30 09:30 Spain Bono 2.5% 31 Oct 2013 31 Jan EUR 3-4bn 10:50 09:50 France OATs 28 Jan EUR 7-9bn 11:00 10:00 Sweden ILBs 27 Jan 10:30 10:30 UK Gilt 4.25% 7 Dec 2040 25 Jan 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2016 - 2018) USD 7-9bn 04/02 Fri 11:00 16:00 US Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase (2013 - 2015) USD 6-8bn Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas Interest Rate Strategy 20 January 2011 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 80 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Next Week's T-Bills Supply Date Country Issues Details 21/01 UK T-Bills Feb 2011 GBP 0.5bn T-Bills Apr 2011 GBP 1bn T-Bills Jul 2011 GBP 1.5bn 24/01 France BTF Apr 2011 EUR 4bn BTF Jul 2011 EUR 2bn BTF Jan 2012 EUR 1.5bn Germany Bubills Jan 2012 (new) EUR 3bn US T-Bills Apr 2011 USD 29bn T-Bills Jul 2011 USD 28bn FHLMC Bills 3-month & 6-month 21 Jan 25/01 Spain Letras Apr 2011 24 Jan Letras Jul 2011 24 Jan US T-Bills 4-week 24 Jan FHLB Discount Notes 26/01 Japan T-Bills Apr 2011 JPY 4.8tn Italy BOT Jul 2011 21 Jan FNMA Bills 3-month & 6-month 24 Jan 27/01 FHLB Discount Notes 28/01 UK T-Bills 21 Jan Denmark T-Bills Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas Comments and charts • EGB gross supply will fall to EUR 13.5bn (ex-CTZ) in the week ahead from EUR 28.5bn in the past week. In 10y duration-adjusted terms, it falls to EUR 10.3bn from EUR 15bn in the past week. • The Netherlands will conduct its first off-the-run taps for 2011 on Tuesday under the new schedule of a quarterly instead of a monthly frequency and with a bigger size. DSLs Jul-12 and Jul-17 will be tapped for a total amount of EUR 2-3bn. Italy will tap CTZ on Wednesday while, on the same day, Germany will tap 30y Bund Jul-42 for EUR 2bn. On Thursday there will be BTPeis auction in Italy and on Friday the usual 3y and 10y BTPs and CCT auctions. The inaugural EFSF bond issuance is expected to take place in the week ahead as the end of January has been suggested as the most likely timing of this issuance. • Outside of the eurozone, US will issue USD 99bn of 2y, 5y and 7y notes. Denmark, Canada and Japan will also issue paper in the week ahead. Next Week's Eurozone Redemptions Date Country Details Amount 26/01 Germany Bubills EUR 6.0bn 27/01 France BTF EUR 8.0bn Total Eurozone Short-term Redemption EUR 14bn Next Week's Eurozone Coupons Country Amount Italy EUR 0.1bn Austria EUR 0.0bn Total Long-term Coupon Payments EUR 0.1bn 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 25 20 15 10 5 0 Chart 1: Investors’ Net Cash Flows (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) Net Investors' Cash Flows (EUR bn , 10y equivalent) Week of Jan 10th Week of Jan 17th Week of Jan 24th Week of Jan 31st Chart 2: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by Country (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) Germany Italy Portugal Belgium France Spain Netherlands Austria Finland Greece Ireland Week of Jan 10th Week of Jan 17th Week of Jan 24th Week of Jan 31st Chart 3: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by Maturity (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 EGBs Gross Supply (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) 2-3-YR 5-7-YR 10-YR >10-YR Week of Jan 10th Week of Jan 17th Week of Jan 24th Week of Jan 31st All Charts Source: BNP Paribas Interest Rate Strategy 20 January 2011 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 81 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2:
Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4:
The obvious focal point is the Summ
Page 5 and 6:
such shocks at the moment, such as
Page 7 and 8:
US monetary conditions, because the
Page 9 and 10:
Chart 9: Asia- Ifo Expected Inflati
Page 11 and 12:
President Bullard was generally sup
Page 13 and 14:
Canada: Betting on Investment and E
Page 15 and 16:
Eurozone Inflation: Forecast Revisi
Page 17 and 18:
optimism on Germany, in last week
Page 19 and 20:
On the basis of the relationship be
Page 21 and 22:
The nominal policy rate and nominal
Page 23 and 24:
households. Furthermore, the statis
Page 25 and 26:
Norway: Norges Bank Preview • We
Page 27 and 28:
Japan: New Cabinet and Policy Outlo
Page 29 and 30: Japan: Capex Outlook • Core machi
Page 31 and 32: US/EUR Spreads: Further Tightening
Page 33 and 34: US: Could the Short End Have a Puls
Page 35 and 36: Trades with higher hit ratio and Sh
Page 37 and 38: ange bound, as we expect, given tha
Page 39 and 40: EUR: Liquidity is No Stress • The
Page 41 and 42: EMU Debt Monitor: Trade Ideas • K
Page 43 and 44: EMU Debt Monitor: CDS Analysis Char
Page 45 and 46: EMU Debt Monitor: Redemptions • O
Page 47 and 48: EUR: Buy 3m5y Straddle vs 3m10y Str
Page 49 and 50: Global Inflation Watch Eurozone HIC
Page 51 and 52: Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 53 and 54: Inflation: With Supply Comes Opport
Page 55 and 56: Pricing Date Repo Rate Sett. Date T
Page 57 and 58: Germany 10y: MT 61.8% (3.12) break
Page 59 and 60: Travelling Asia • Inflation has e
Page 61 and 62: Capitalism requires business cycles
Page 63 and 64: EURUSD Rally Eyes 1.3750-1.3950 •
Page 65 and 66: Currency Spot Trade Recommendations
Page 67 and 68: than an unrelenting rise in prices
Page 69 and 70: Economic Calendar: 21 - 28 January
Page 71 and 72: Key Data Preview 120 115 110 105 10
Page 73 and 74: Key Data Preview Chart 5: French Sa
Page 75 and 76: Key Data Preview 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
Page 77 and 78: Key Data Preview 3 2 1 0 -1 Chart 1
Page 79: Economic Calendar: 31 Jan - 25 Feb
Page 83 and 84: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2010 20
Page 85 and 86: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa
show all

Market Economics | Interest Rate Strategy - BNP PARIBAS ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?